2022 NBA Mock Draft: Orlando takes Jabari Smith at No. 1, but Chet Holmgren has highest upside

After a wild 24 hours in the betting markets, things have apparently settled and Jabari Smith now seems destined to be the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. I do not believe it's what I would do if I were running Orlando's franchise because I'd likely take a big swing on Chet Holmgren, i.e., the prospect I think has the highest upside in this draft. But that doesn't mean taking Smith is ridiculous and/or destined to be a mistake. There's a lot to like there and, at worst, it's hard to imagine him being anything other than a switchable forward and high-level shooter who produces in the NBA for more than a decade, health permitting.

I like him a lot.

But, yeah, I'm still more of a believer in Holmgren actually becoming the star from this draft because of his unique skill-set that most have faith in but some find filled with red flags. Are there red flags? Sure, I guess. His body is the biggest concern. But worrying about Holmgren's body more than you drool about his elite rim-protecting and play-making and shot-making ability at 7-foot-1 seems like a mistake to me. He's not a sure thing, I acknowledge. But if he becomes what his biggest supporters believe he can become, Holmgren should — maybe not immediately, but in time — emerge as the prize of the 2022 NBA Draft that is now just hours from unfolding.

Mock Draft

Round 1

Round 1 - Pick 1 Jabari Smith PF Auburn • Fr • 6'11" / 220 lbs Projected Team Orlando PROSPECT RNK 2nd POSITION RNK 1st PPG 16.9 RPG 7.4 APG 2 3P% 42% Smith still needs to develop in lots of ways but is already a great shooter and switchable defender who plays with undeniable energy. He's not the guy I'd take first in this draft — but it's a sensible pick for an Orlando franchise that needs to add talent and shooting.

Round 1 - Pick 2 Chet Holmgren C Gonzaga • 7'1" / 195 lbs Projected Team Oklahoma City PROSPECT RNK 1st POSITION RNK 1st PPG 14.1 RPG 9.9 APG 1.9 3P% 39% The concerns about Holmgren's slight frame are legitimate — but he's such a unique prospect with incredible potential that Oklahoma City should be uncomfortable passing on this 7-foot rim-protector who can also bounce it like a guard and reliably make 3-pointers. He has the highest ceiling in this draft and, for that reason, should go no lower than here.

Round 1- Pick 3 Paolo Banchero PF Duke • Fr • 6'10" / 250 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 3rd POSITION RNK 2nd PPG 17.2 RPG 7.8 APG 3.2 3P% 33.8% Banchero is probably the safest option at the top of this draft on account of his floor being so high. He's a big, strong and skilled forward who could be an incredible building block in Houston alongside Jalen Green.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Jaden Ivey SG Purdue • Fr • 6'4" / 195 lbs Projected Team Sacramento PROSPECT RNK 4th POSITION RNK 1st PPG 17.3 RPG 4.9 APG 3.1 3P% 35.8% Ivey is an explosive athlete who plays big and is capable of attacking the rim in a variety of ways. There are questions about whether he's actually going to be a point guard in the NBA, but that shouldn't matter much to a Sacramento franchise that should simply prioritize the best prospect available.

Round 1 - Pick 5 Keegan Murray PF Iowa • Fr • 6'8" / 225 lbs Projected Team Detroit PROSPECT RNK 5th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 23.5 RPG 8.7 APG 1.5 3P% 39.8% Murray is a switchable big who can guard in space and consistently make shots from the perimeter. What he does, at his size, is perfectly suited for the modern NBA and would fit well with a Detroit franchise trying to return to respectability with Cade Cunningham as the centerpiece.

Round 1 - Pick 6 Bennedict Mathurin SG Arizona • Fr • 6'5" / 210 lbs Projected Team Indiana PROSPECT RNK 7th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 17.7 RPG 5.6 APG 2.5 3P% 36.9% Mathurin was the star of Arizona's team that won the Pac-12 and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 6-6 wing is an impressive athlete and above-average shooter who would be a nice addition for an Indiana franchise pivoting to a rebuild.

Round 1 - Pick 7 Dyson Daniels SG G League Ignite • Fr • 6'7" / 199 lbs Projected Team Portland PROSPECT RNK 8th POSITION RNK 4th PPG 11.3 RPG 5.9 APG 4.4 3P% 25.5% Daniels isn't quite the prospect previous Ignite stars have been but is still a fascinating guard with size who can play with or without the ball. His jumper, at this point, is the biggest area of concern but shouldn't prevent him from going in the top 10.

From Los Angeles Lakers Round 1 - Pick 8 Shaedon Sharpe SG Kentucky • Fr • 6'5" / 200 lbs Projected Team New Orleans PROSPECT RNK 6th POSITION RNK 2nd Even though he enrolled in January and was eligible to compete, Sharpe never played at Kentucky in part because the people around him wanted to protect his status as a projected top-10 pick. Mission accomplished. it's hard to imagine the explosive athlete going much lower than this considering he's a gifted scorer with the physical tools to be a disruptive defender on the wing in New Orleans.

Round 1 - Pick 9 Jalen Duren C Memphis • Fr • 6'10" / 250 lbs Projected Team San Antonio PROSPECT RNK 14th POSITION RNK 2nd PPG 12 RPG 8.1 APG 1.3 FG% 59.7% Duren isn't really the type of floor-spacing big franchises prefer these days, but he's such a physical specimen and great athlete that there's probably a place for him in the top 10 of this draft. At worst, he should be a terrific rim-running and rim-protecting center who alters shots, dunks everything and is good enough guarding in space.

Round 1 - Pick 10 Ochai Agbaji SG Kansas • Fr • 6'5" / 215 lbs Projected Team Washington PROSPECT RNK 10th POSITION RNK 5th PPG 18.8 RPG 5.1 APG 1.6 3P% 40.9% I'm higher on Agbaji than most simply because I don't understand what's not to like about a 6-5 athlete who is a plus-defender on the wing and excellent 3-point shooter. Once you get past the top-tier prospects in this draft, the Kansas All-American makes as much sense as anybody and would provide Bradley Beal with a new teammate equipped to help from Day One.

Round 1 - Pick 11 Johnny Davis SF Wisconsin • Fr • 6'4" / 195 lbs Projected Team New York PROSPECT RNK 15th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 19.7 RPG 8.2 APG 2.1 3P% 30.6% Davis went from a mostly anonymous power-conference player to a candidate for national player of the year in his sophomore season at Wisconsin. An ankle injury limited him down the stretch, but he showed enough as a shot creator and scorer before that to justify his status as a projected lottery pick.

From Los Angeles Clippers Round 1 - Pick 12 Ousmane Dieng SF France • Fr • 6'9" / 185 lbs Projected Team Oklahoma City PROSPECT RNK 16th POSITION RNK 4th Dieng is a long and skilled prospect who still needs to develop but is worth a serious look this deep in the lottery. He might not contribute immediately but definitely projects as an interesting long-term investment for an Oklahoma City franchise loading up on them.

Round 1 - Pick 13 Jeremy Sochan PF Baylor • Fr • 6'8" / 230 lbs Projected Team Charlotte PROSPECT RNK 11th POSITION RNK 4th PPG 9.2 RPG 6.4 APG 1.8 3P% 29.6% Sochan is the rare sub-100 high school recruit who should be a one-and-done top-20 pick. His ability to guard multiple positions, and his potential as a shooter, are among the reasons he's a tantalizing prospect and one of the most versatile players available in this draft.

Round 1 - Pick 14 AJ Griffin SF Duke • Fr • 6'6" / 220 lbs Projected Team Cleveland PROSPECT RNK 9th POSITION RNK 1st PPG 10.4 RPG 3.9 APG 1 3P% 44.7% It took Griffin a little while to get comfortable at Duke because of a preseason knee injury that seemed to affect his athleticism. But the five-star high school recruit, who is the son of NBA assistant coach Adrian Griffin, eventually showed glimpses of why he's a lottery talent, mostly by proving to be a fantastic 3-point shooter who made 44.7% of his 4.1 attempts from beyond the arc per game.

From New Orleans Pelicans Round 1 - Pick 15 Mark Williams C Duke • Fr • 7'0" / 240 lbs Projected Team Charlotte PROSPECT RNK 17th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 11.2 RPG 7.4 APG 0.9 FG% 72.1% Williams, like fellow projected lottery pick Duren, is more of a traditional big than a modern big. But any franchise in need of a rim-protector and lob-catcher — like Charlotte, obviously — would have to consider him at this point in the draft.

Round 1 - Pick 16 Malaki Branham SF Ohio State • Fr • 6'4" / 180 lbs Projected Team Atlanta PROSPECT RNK 13th POSITION RNK 2nd PPG 13.7 RPG 3.6 APG 2 3P% 41.6% Branham is a shooting guard with good size and great length who really flourished in the second half of the season. The one-and-done standout became the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year and would fit nicely beside Trae Young in Atlanta.

From Brooklyn Nets Round 1 - Pick 17 Jalen Williams SG Santa Clara • Fr • 6'5" / 211 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 21st POSITION RNK 6th PPG 18 RPG 4.4 APG 4.2 3P% 39.6% Williams probably helped himself more in the pre-draft process than any other prospect available. He's a 6-6 wing who shot 39.6% from 3-point range for a Santa Clara team that finished third in the West Coast Conference.

Round 1 - Pick 18 Walker Kessler C Auburn • Fr • 7'0" / 245 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 30th POSITION RNK 4th PPG 11.4 RPG 8.1 APG 0.9 3P% 20% Kessler was arguably the best defensive player in college basketball this past season while averaging 4.6 blocks per game for an Auburn team that spent part of the season ranked No. 1. He's an incredible rim-protector with the potential to also develop into a comfortable perimeter shooter.

Round 1 - Pick 19 TyTy Washington Jr. PG Kentucky • Fr • 6'3" / 195 lbs Projected Team Minnesota PROSPECT RNK 12th POSITION RNK 1st PPG 12.5 RPG 3.5 APG 3.9 3P% 35% Washington mostly played off the ball in his one season at Kentucky but projects as a lead guard in the NBA. Ankle injuries limited him in the second half of the season — but the one-and-done Wildcat showed enough before he was hampered to solidify his status as a top-20 pick.

From Toronto Raptors Round 1 - Pick 20 Tari Eason PF LSU • Fr • 6'8" / 215 lbs Projected Team San Antonio PROSPECT RNK 19th POSITION RNK 6th PPG 16.9 RPG 6.6 APG 1 3P% 35.9% Eason was a breakout star at LSU after transferring following a so-so first season at Cincinnati. He's a versatile frontcourt option who can guard multiple positions and punish defenses in transition opportunities.

Round 1 - Pick 21 Blake Wesley SG Notre Dame • Fr • 6'3" / 185 lbs Projected Team Denver PROSPECT RNK 26th POSITION RNK 8th PPG 14.4 RPG 3.7 APG 2.4 3P% 30.3% Adding a young athlete to the backcourt wouldn't be the worst idea for a Denver franchise that needs to provide two-time MVP Nikola Jokic with more help. Wesley didn't finish his one season at Notre Dame with consistently good performances but his upside is such that he's worth a selection somewhere in the 20s.

From Utah Jazz Round 1 - Pick 22 Kennedy Chandler PG Tennessee • Fr • 5'11" / 170 lbs Projected Team Memphis PROSPECT RNK 22nd POSITION RNK 2nd PPG 13.9 RPG 3.2 APG 4.7 3P% 38.3% The possibility of Tyus Jones leaving via free agency might have Memphis in the market for a point guard. At this point in the draft, the best option would be Chandler — the Memphis-raised product who has won at every level and already possesses a close relationship with Grizzlies' star Ja Morant.

Round 1 - Pick 23 Dalen Terry SF Arizona • Fr • 6'7" / 195 lbs Projected Team Philadelphia PROSPECT RNK 24th POSITION RNK 5th PPG 8 RPG 4.8 APG 3.9 3P% 36.4% Terry wasn't overwhelmingly productive in his two seasons at Arizona — but he showed enough, as a guard with great size, to place himself on NBA radars. He needs to develop in a lot of ways but would be an interesting fit for a Philadelphia franchise trying to win big in Joel Embiid's prime.

Round 1 - Pick 24 E.J. Liddell PF Ohio State • 6'6" / 240 lbs Projected Team Milwaukee PROSPECT RNK 18th POSITION RNK 5th PPG 19.4 RPG 7.9 APG 2.5 3P% 37.4% Liddell is the type of player who could help Milwaukee's core — a core highlighted, of course, by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo — theoretically compete for another title next season. He's undersized but effective and ready to contribute.

From Boston Celtics Round 1 - Pick 25 Jaden Hardy SG G League Ignite • Fr • 6'3" / 198 lbs Projected Team San Antonio PROSPECT RNK 23rd POSITION RNK 7th Hardy didn't do much over the past year to help his draft stock — but he's still a first-round talent capable of developing into a special scorer. Being drafted by a strong-cultured franchise like San Antonio would probably be the best thing for the trajectory of his career.

From Dallas Mavericks Round 1 - Pick 26 MarJon Beauchamp SF G League Ignite • 6'7" / 197 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 45th POSITION RNK 13th Beauchamp is a 6-6 wing with a 6-11 wingspan who should be the third player from the G-League Ignite taken in the first round of this draft. The fact that he shot poorly from 3-point range this season is a concern, but he does enough other things that impact winning to merit a guaranteed contract.

Round 1 - Pick 27 Wendell Moore Jr. SF Duke • Fr • 6'5" / 215 lbs Projected Team Miami PROSPECT RNK 29th POSITION RNK 8th PPG 13.4 RPG 5.3 APG 4.4 3P% 41.3% Moore developed well in his three years at Duke and ultimately established himself as a high-level wing who can guard multiple positions and reliably make 3-pointers. He's the type of prospect Miami (and most well-run franchises) value.

Round 1 - Pick 28 Christian Braun SG Kansas • Fr • 6'6" / 220 lbs Projected Team Golden St. PROSPECT RNK 40th POSITION RNK 13th PPG 14.1 RPG 6.5 APG 2.8 3P% 38.6% Braun is a wing with size who can guard his position, reliably make jumpers and finish in transition. He's the type of prospect who could flourish with a Golden State franchise that has created a championship culture built to last.

Round 1 - Pick 29 Caleb Houstan SF Michigan • Fr • 6'8" / 205 lbs Projected Team Memphis PROSPECT RNK 32nd POSITION RNK 9th PPG 10.1 RPG 4 APG 1.4 3P% 35.5% Houstan declined an invitation to the NBA Combine, at which point speculation grew that he might have a first-round promise. His lone season at Michigan was largely underwhelming — but he's still a talented wing with size in possession of an encouraging jumper, which automatically makes him a legitimate first-round option.

From Oklahoma City Thunder Round 1 - Pick 30 Trevor Keels SG Duke • Fr • 6'5" / 221 lbs Projected Team Denver PROSPECT RNK 33rd POSITION RNK 9th PPG 11.5 RPG 3.4 APG 2.7 3P% 31.2% Keels struggled as a shooter at Duke but has showed signs previously that suggest it might not be the weakness some believe. Either way, he's a super-strong combo guard who could work well in a Denver backcourt that might soon be without Monte Morris.