Is Another Beast From The East On The Way?
February 14, 2023
By Paul Homewood
This long range forecast from the Met Office may be worth keeping an eye on:
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcrjp3v96#?date=2023-02-14
High pressure in the north and low in the north will pull in cold continental air; depending on the exact positions, we could be in for another Beast from the East!
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Another cold blast will be blamed by the eco rabble as due to global warming.
If it’s anything like 2018 we can expect post hoc explanation that global warming increases the likelihood of SSW and or such events propagating into the Troposphere and thereby burying us under several feet of snow. The met office has form here, for instance after several wash out summers they said AGW was increasing the likelihood of wet summers, that one made in late Spring followed by scorching summer weather. And more scorchers in the years following.
They’re basically brilliant at predicting the past.
Can we avoid using these moronic media appellations for various types of weather, all of which we experienced for decades, without resorting to stupid names and descriptions?
Couldn’t agree more. The worst was the recent declaration of a “bomb cyclone”. The expression they obviously found too complex to use was “explosive cyclogenesis”, a not uncommon rapid development of a low pressure system.
Personally I dread the Wanker from the West, with all that wind and rain.
We have had a dry February; grass is slowly growing, fields planted in the Autumn have what appears to be a good coverage and sound “here” there is little sign of etiolation because we have had some welcome sunny periods after a wet end of 2022, and recent well above average temperatures. If we have a cold spell in March or a wet April/May with frost will that be an extreme AWG/CC event – the doomsters might try to con folks but seen it all before – or just periodic variation of what has induced the weather over millennia?
“round here”, apologies.
The ever-so-important phrase: “. . . a small possibility and could . . .”!!
I don’t see much evidence of any ‘Beast from the East’ in the long term jet stream forecast. Some ‘Pest from the West’ weather, but mostly, there is a persistent bubble of high pressure which just wants to sit directly over the UK, diverting more unsettled weather elsewhere. So don’t expect to be charging your EV, washing your smalls, or boiling your kettle using ‘sea breezes’ too much in the coming months.
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream
I’m hoping for Sultry from the South …
definitely don’t want any Nasty from the North !!
This is a retrospective from 1987, yes? Or may be one of the years in the 1990s?
But I remember late Feb/early March 1987: 4 weeks when the temperature did not reach 5C during the day (and we could not lay tarmac for the road on the cruise missile base!).
Feb ’87 started in mid to late in the month and our village in the midlands was cut off and blacked out for three days.
For a moment I thought your ‘beast from the East’ was another piece about Lord Deben.
+1
“High pressure in the north and low in the north will pull in cold continental air” maybe: “low in the south”?
“This long range forecast from the Met Office may be worth keeping an eye on”
Perhaps the Met Office has learnt its lesson from one of its previous ones?
So the proximate cause of this possible weather event will be high pressure in the north and low pressure in the south. When they blame it on “climate change,” demand to know exactly what they mean by “climate change,” and explain how this “climate change” caused high pressure in the north and low pressure in the south.
I’ve read a bit about the Artic vortex in the last few days and think I have a handle on some of it. It seems that the Vortex is a cylinder shaped whirling wind which holds the very cold air above the Arctic. When the warmer air around it get over it the vortex tends to lower and can collapse, mostly partially, to allow the cold air to spread in to the ionosphere, that’s where our weather is, and the cold comes south. There is growing evidence that the vortex is weakening and we are in for below average temperatures at the end of February and in to March. There is much uncertainty about it this far out but one site I looked at said there was an 80% chance of a beast although not as strong that we experienced a few years back. I hope I’ve not misled anybody by getting this wrong as it is my stab at venturing in to an area in which I have no expertise.
The Met has been the least positive about the possibility of all the sites I’ve visited but that is my experience of the Met. They downplay any below average temperatures and enthuse about any possibility of above average temperatures. Part of the Alarmist brigade no doubt.
Is that true of did you hear it from the Met Office?
Low in south presumably. I dont know why this is described as a warm winter.
I’ve just looked at a Met Office update and the words ‘small possibility’ were buried in the usual alarmist splurge. It’s weather folks and it’s still winter.
Sunday Times: a quote from March 4, 2018…”Britain’s freezing ‘Beast from the East’ exploded into life a thousand miles away, in the tropical waters of the western Pacific – and ministers were warned it was coming a month ago.”
Adam Scaife, Met Office.
The ENSO and the jet streams…
I laugh when I hear weather forecasters say the weather will be “unsettled” and “changeable”. This is not a forecast – it’s a statement of fact. Britain’s weather is always unsettled and changeable.
Agreed. With 99 pet cent confidence I forecast a strong likelihood of wetter conditions developing at times in the north-west. These conditions may from time to time extend over the whole country, but the greater chance of settled weather is likely to be in the south-east. I wonder can I get paid for this?
Yep, one thing we’re not short of in this country is weather!
Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell predicted this a while ago and his Saturday Summary reaffirms it: https://www.weatherbell.com/#featured
Isn’t this just a generic February weather forecast. No skill involved just rinse and repeat.
Then whatever happens the Met Office will claim they forecast accurately.
It’s not just here. This from the BBC and the NZ climate minster:
New Zealand announced a national state of emergency on Tuesday, which allows it streamline its response to the disaster.
The country has only previously declared a national state of emergency on two occasions – during the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.
New Zealand’s climate minister has attributed to the scale of the disaster to climate change.
“The severity of it, of course, [is] made worse by the fact that our global temperatures have already increased by 1.1 degrees,” said James Shaw in parliament on Tuesday.
“We need to stop making excuses for inaction. We cannot put our heads in the sand when the beach is flooding. We must act now.”
Maybe I should say that I mean it’s not only the UK where the lunatics appear to have taken over. If Paul has info re Antipodean storms he might be able to show similar exaggeration down there as up here. One thing for sure is that the BBC won’t provide balance.
“We need to stop making excuses for inaction. We cannot put our heads in the sand when the beach is flooding. We must act now.”
To do what… Pull your heads out? There is no meaningful action that can be taken that would not be worse than the “disease”. Stop calling for action by mitigation and start calling for adaptation. Better infrastructures to survive extreme weather. We will need that regardless.
It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on the long range forecast from the Met Office. It’s interesting to see that they are predicting the potential of another Beast from the East. It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the end. Does anyone have any predictions of what the weather might look like in the UK in February 2023?
It being winter, I expect it to be pretty cold!
And in reality: it’s cold and ugly.