The Week That Was: 2022-04-23 (April 23, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Science is a process for learning about nature in which competing ideas about how the world works are measured against observations.”
“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.”
“If there is something very slightly wrong in our definition of the theories, then the full mathematical rigor may convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.” – Richard Feynman.
Number of the Week: Up to $10 Trillion
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: On the blog by Donna Laframboise, emeritus Professor of Mathematics and Physics Christopher Essex has posted an essay discussing the severe problem the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has experienced in its efforts to attribute global warming / climate change to greenhouse gases. This problem, a critical deficiency, underlies the work of the followers of the IPCC including the US National Climate Assessments and the 2009 EPA Endangerment Finding that increasing greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, endanger public health and welfare.
Very unfortunately, and very critically important, is that the IPCC cannot present any clear scientific facts that such gases actually produce their claimed warming causing climate change. Even worse, the IPCC cannot rationalize their draconian predicted impacts of climate change based on anything except highly suspect climate models, which are so limited and flawed that they cannot produce any predictions that match existing factual results, let alone credible future warming predictions. These deficiencies stem from fundamentally faulty mathematics and are illustrated by the recent efforts of the UN IPCC to change their global climate modeling, thus undermining their own earlier work and predictions. This creates a situation where nothing the IPCC has projected is credible anymore if it ever was. The nature of this fundamental problem is discussed below.
The three quotes from Richard Feynman making up the Quote of the Week apply particularly well to the work by Essex.
The problem leads to the need for an upper bound analysis such as that presented by The Right Climate Stuff Team (TRCS) and, recently, by Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden. The advantages of the Hayden approach over the TRCS team approach are discussed.
Last week, TWTW discussed an essay by Roy Spencer on atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements at Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. The essay led to comments some of which are discussed below.
The UN IPCC and the US National Climate Assessments ignore the tremendous benefits of atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment, making their reports particularly one-sided, politically biased government reports. Craig Idso presents a new review on studies showing that carbon dioxide increases plant productivity, particularly in C3 plants which include most crops and all trees.
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The Closure Problem: Very unfortunately, and very critically important, is that the IPCC cannot present any clear scientific facts that such gases actually produce their claimed warming due to climate change. Even worse, the IPCC cannot rationalize their draconian predicted impacts of climate change based on anything except highly suspect climate models, which are so limited and flawed that they cannot produce any predictions that match existing factual results, let alone credible future warming predictions. These deficiencies stem from fundamentally faulty mathematics and are illustrated by the recent efforts of the UN IPCC to change their global climate modeling, thus undermining their own earlier work and predictions. This creates a situation where nothing the IPCC has projected is credible anymore, if it ever was. The nature of this fundamental problem is discussed below.
Correspondingly, in modeling if a system has more unknowns than independent, defining equations there is no unique solution. Games can be played, but these can include imaginary numbers and similar constructions that do not give a realistic solution. Furthermore, if a modeling system does not have a unique solution, one cannot disprove it using the same system. But one can show that it is inconsistent with reality.
During the winter months, meteorologist Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL Analytics has repeatedly noted that numerical weather models do not pick up cold waves. In this sense, they are not suitable for forecasting the weather.
Fittingly, Essex begins his essay “Can Computer Models Predict Climate?” with a discussion that the temperature of the surface of the Earth can hit low temperatures comparable to the low temperatures of the surface of Mars due to cold waves in the Earth’s atmosphere. Decades of climate modeling have been focused on the warming effect of greenhouse gases and yet have missed the reality of the atmosphere. The modelers deal with an imaginary atmosphere and ignore testing their models against the real one.
Starting with his section “Feynman, Experiment and Climate Models” Essex writes:
“‘Model’ is used in a peculiar manner in the climate field. In other fields, models are usually formulated so that they can be found false in the face of evidence. From fundamental physics (the Standard Model) to star formation, a model is meant to be put to the test, no matter how meritorious.
“Climate models do not have this character. No observation from Nature can cause them to be replaced by some new form of model. Instead, climate models are seen by some as the implementation of perfect established classical physics expressed on oracular [prophesizing] computers, and as such must be regarded as fully understood and beyond falsification. In terms of normal science, this is fantasy.
“Modern critics of climate models cite a famous remark of the physicist Richard Feynman: ‘It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.’ Those critics imagine models as theory, and observations as experiment. No knowledgeable model builder believes that climate models capture all features of the system well. As such they disagree with observations. However, they do not violate Feynman’s edict because climate models are no theory for climate, and observations of an uncontrolled system are no experiment. Feynman was speaking in the context of controlled physical experiments, which cannot be done for climate.
Actually, Feynman later broaden his approach to include observations from nature, not just experiments. See quote of the week.
“If a climate model disagrees with data, in principle the sub-grid-scale (more below) of ad hoc climate models can be adjusted to make it agree. Fortunately, good model builders resist the temptation to overdo such tuning. However, they may do things inadvertently like tune models to be more like each other than like the atmosphere and oceans.”
“Extreme Computing in Search of Climate
“Extreme conditions can compromise any computer calculation, despite popular faith otherwise. Sharp transitions on boundaries, extreme gradients, and extremes in density are examples. There are also extremes that are often overlooked, e.g., an extreme of time. Direct computation of the meteorological physics for long timescales is an extreme in time. Integrations of classical physics on computers for climatological timescales are unique and unprecedented. Like other forms of extreme computation, there are consequences.” [Boldface added]
Essex discusses errors that occur in rounding off, truncation and symmetry. He writes:
“The third type of error [symmetry] tells us that the actual computer model equations that take us into the future will usually conserve different things than the original equations. The conservation laws from the original mathematics are broken and replaced with something artifactual. For example, consider a simple numerical treatment of a pendulum. Typically, such numerical treatments do not conserve energy, even though the original equations do. For long times, the amplitude of the pendulum can grow (unphysically) with time because the energy grows instead of being constant in the numerical system. Note that there are conservation laws, due to symmetries, in dissipative systems too.”
“The significance for long term forecasting is clear. The only tie the present has to the future, through fundamental equations, is in terms of change relative to those properties that are preserved over time. Change those properties; change the prescribed future. Such change can accrue over long timescales.” [Boldface added]
Here we see part of the problem with the Climate Crisis and the Endangerment Finding. They are built on what might happen, not on what is actually occurring. To further complicate the issues, in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007) on which the EPA Endangerment Finding is based, the climate modelers recognized the models were unstable and have shifted the models by stabilizing them, and thus undermining the rationale for the Endangerment Finding. Essex writes:
“In contrast, modern versions are so stable that nothing happens unless pushed from the outside. Models exhibit no natural variability over long times (white spectra). But instability is also a real-world property. Are computational stabilization schemes too aggressive, throwing the baby out with the bath water? Have they encountered computational over-stabilization? [reference 4 (not shown)] Is their long-term stability a bug or a feature? Some modelers believe the latter. They believe that models have discovered what climate is. Thus, they contend that climate is a “boundary value problem,” as startup conditions no longer matter in the long term. If true, an observer living on climate timescales would experience no variability – nothing analogous to weather. Every moment would be like the last. Change would strictly be a matter of external causes. However, there is no known way to deduce it from first principles, and long-term internal variability is evident.”
The modelers have achieved a completely imaginary atmosphere which they falsely claim is based on first principles. Essex goes through other efforts to define Climate in a way useful for numerical models and shows that the efforts have failed. He concludes:
“A physical definition for climate remains scientifically elusive because it represents a deep problem that neither elegant theories nor brute force computations have succeeded in getting a foothold on. Without that definition, the question posed by the title cannot be answered.
“There are many paths yet to explore, but they are buried by the greenhouse mindset inherited from the models of the 1960s. It makes this deep problem seem trivial and it invites the vision of one temperature controlled solely by infrared active gases. That is the basis of climate sensitivity, which amounts to a dubious claim of closure for the climate problem. However, this function need not exist in Nature.
“This questionable closure invites the vision of climate as a control problem. But it would be control over something that is not actually climate through a function that exists only in the radiative-convective models. This vision is itself unfalsifiable. Following it ensures that we only fool ourselves, because as Feynman also said, ‘Nature can’t be fooled.’”
In summary, in claiming a Climate Crisis, Washington has declared an imaginary crisis, based on an imaginary atmosphere for which it has an imaginary solution – that wind and solar power are reliable and affordable. With such imagination, what can go wrong? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar4/
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A Better Way: The Right Climate Stuff Team included scientists and engineers who designed the Apollo lander, for which there were no textbooks or experience. They had to examine and evaluate a wide range of possibilities. Realizing that the IPCC “goal” of “equilibrium climate sensitivity” was an ideal, not a reality, they used their skills in establishing an upper bound analysis for global warming from carbon dioxide emissions. However, their notable effort has a weakness: it is dependent on knowledge of the extent of fossil fuel resources and the ability to extract them.
The advantage of the upper bound analysis found in his essays on Basic Climate Physics by Howard Hayden is that it is independent of technology, such as oil extraction technology on which the TRCS approach depends. Hayden’s approach is based on well-established physics and estimates in IPCC reports. Climate model results exceeding the upper bound have no basis in physics. See https://therightclimatestuff.com/ and http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm
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Additions and Corrections: In commenting on the analysis by Roy Spencer regarding a recent drop in CO2 concentrations measured at Mauna Loa, Richard Courtney writes:
“…similar falls in ‘Mauna Loa dCO2/dt’ [decline in CO2 over time] occurred when there were no reductions to ‘Global Anthro CO2 Emissions’ similar to the ‘Covid drop’ (e.g., around 1970, 1990, 2008)”
and
“…rises in ‘Mauna Loa dCO2/dt’ of magnitude much larger than the ‘Covid drop’ happened when there were no significant increases to ‘Global Anthro CO2 Emissions’ (e.g., around 1974, 1988, 1998 and 2018).”
These observations suggest to me that the fall in ‘Mauna Loa dCO2/dt’ [decline in CO2 over time] coincident with the ‘Covid drop’ is natural fluctuation of similar kind to the previous similar natural fluctuations.
This is a good example of the problems with “messy” data. What appears to some may be interpreted differently by others. There is no clear answer. In addition, Geoffrey Sherrington asserts that the measurement errors are too large for asserting that the drop was from COVID. Too often in climate research false precision is used to imply certainty. They are not the same. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Multiple Benefits: In Master Resource, Craig Idso writes of an experiment by his father, Dr. Sherwood Idso who worked at the U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory in Phoenix, Arizona. Craig states:
“In one of his more famous experiments, my father grew sour orange trees in ambient and CO2-enriched air in the Phoenix desert for nearly two decades. In that study, which was the longest such experiment ever to be conducted anywhere in the world, trees exposed to a CO2 concentration 75% greater than normal annually produced 70% more biomass and 85% more fruit. And as icing on the cake, so to speak, the vitamin C concentration of the juice of the CO2-enriched oranges was between 5 and 15% greater than that of the juice of the oranges produced on the trees growing in ambient air.”
Note that CO2 enhancement not only resulted in more fruits and fruit biomass, but also resulted in greater vitamin C concentrations. Unfortunately, such research is no longer politically popular. Based on his extensive research Craig writes:
“Although much less studied than terrestrial plants, many aquatic plants are also known to be responsive to atmospheric CO2 enrichment, including unicellular phytoplankton and bottom-rooted macrophytes of both freshwater and saltwater species. Hence, there is probably no category of photosynthesizing plant that does not respond in a positive manner to atmospheric CO2 enrichment and that is not likely to be benefited by the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content.”
Today, politicized entities such as NOAA and many academic organizations will claim such an increase in CO2 is “Ocean Acidification” and totally ignore that primary production areas in the oceans are precisely where major upwellings bring carbon dioxide rich waters to the surface increasing photosynthesis and marine life. See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide.
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Paralysis By Analysis: The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) was used to kill much needed improvements to protect New Orleans from flooding, a fact touted by environmental organizations until Katrina killed about a thousand people in Louisiana. Now, under the guise of the infrastructure bill, Washington is planning to expand bureaucratic efforts to stop needed pipelines, highways, and other infrastructure. See Article # 1.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.
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Number of the Week: Up to $10 Trillion. Craig Idso writes:
“I have also calculated the direct monetary benefits of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on both historic and future global crop production. Over the past 50 years, which benefit amounts to well over $3 trillion. And projecting the monetary value of this positive externality forward in time reveals that it will bestow an additional $10 trillion on crop production over the next 50 years. Yet, as amazing as this estimate sounds, it may very well be vastly undervalued.” [Boldface added] See link under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
USA and Canada’s Plan to Silence Independent Media
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 18, 2022
Trudeau invents license for “journalists” so readers know which ones are Government Approved Liars
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 20, 2022
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Can Computer Models Predict Climate?
Guest post by Christopher Essex, Emeritus Professor of Mathematics and Physics, University of Western Ontario., Big Picture News, Apr 13, 2022
Sorry, But Hard Science is Not Done This Way.
By Geoffrey H Sherrington, WUWT, Apr 20, 2022
Big Trouble in the Little Ice Age
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2022
Video
Earth Day At 52: None of the eco-doomsday predictions have come true
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Apr 22, 2022
Climate at a Glance
Press Release, Supplement Science and Climate Curricula and Will Be Mailed to Thousands of Teachers in 2022, Heartland Institute, Apr 21, 2022
Earth Day truth: Fossil fuels make Earth BETTER
Fossil fuels are making Earth a better and better place by providing uniquely low-cost, reliable energy to billions of people–and are needed by billions more. We need a Fossil Future.
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Apr 22, 2022
Earth Day 2022: Investing in Poverty, Suffering, and Human Degradation
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, April 22, 2022
Follow the Science: But Which Results? Using Same Tree Ring Dataset, 15 Groups Come Up With 15 Different Reconstructions
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 19, 2022
Link to paper: The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
By Ulf Büntgen, et al. Nature Communications, June 7, 2021
From the abstract: “Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Comments on Speech by the Secretary General of the IMC [International Military Council] on Climate and Security
By Staff, ICECAP, Apr 20, 2022
On Earth Day, Let’s Double Down on Proven Solutions to Fight Climate Change
By Sarah E. Hunt, Real Clear Energy, April 21, 2022
We Analyzed 300 Companies’ Financial Documents to Find Out How Concerned They Are About Climate Change
By Emily Barone and Chris Wilson, Time, Apr 19, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science & Non-science
“Diplomats for Climate Action” Demand Australia Kowtow to the EU
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 17, 2022
Link to letter by the former diplomates:
Diplomats for Climate Action Now Sep 26, 2021
“As former diplomats we are deeply concerned that Australia’s key strategic and economic interests are at risk because of our failure to date, to commit to a target of net zero emissions by 2050. This lack of commitment is particularly concerning to those regional partners for whom climate change already poses a clear existential threat.
[SEPP Comment: We cannot provide any physical evidence that the “clear existential threat” exists, but it must exist because we think it so?]
Global warming: even cacti can’t take the heat
By AFP Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), April 15, 2022
“To test the notion that cacti will benefit from a warmer and more drought-prone world, researchers led by Michiel Pillet from the University of Arizona examined data on more than 400 species and ran models projecting how they would fare at mid-century and beyond under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Energy Myths Are Triggering a New Dark Age in Europe
By Brian Gitt, Real Clear Energy, April 18, 2022
The Dark Side Of Earth Day
By Sam Kazman, CEI, Apl 22, 2022
Will it eat you last?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
“Many companies in Canada and elsewhere, including energy companies, seem to think that they can meet climate alarmists half-way. Or more; some actually seem determined to lobby for their own extinction within their trade associations, in the pages of newspapers, and in the halls of government, like some especially batty modern-day Marie Antoinette urging the Committee on Public Safety to step up its measures against those selfish aristos.”
[SEPP Comment: You can’t make deals with green zealots.]
New Study: 90 Papers Were Published On The ‘Hiatus’ From 2009-2019. Now They Say It Never Happened.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 18, 2022
Is “Climate Change” science or pseudoscience?
By Andy May, WUWT, Apr 21, 2022
Change in US Administrations
US Military: A Recipe for Disaster
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 19, 2022
Biden Chooses To Crucify Armed Forces For Green Agenda
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 23, 2022
“Putin and Xi must be quaking in their boots!”
Biden restores some environmental permitting requirements loosened by Trump
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, apr 19, 2022
“NEPA is a more than 50-year-old law that requires the government to consider environmental and community concerns before it approves various types of infrastructure projects, which can also include airports and buildings.”
Biden to tout climate policies for Earth Day
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 18, 2022
Biden casts crisis as ‘opportunity’ during optimistic Earth Day speech
By Rachel Frazin and Morgan Chalfant, The Hill, Apr 22, 2022
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Increased Plant Productivity: The First Key Benefit of Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment
By Craig D. Idso, Master Resource, April 21, 2022
Henderson the carbon king
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
“Remember, in the boringly named Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric CO2 was down to just 180 ppm, only 30 ppm above the mass extinction of all C3 photosynthesis plants including most crops and, shucks, all trees.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Happy Earth Day – Real Air Pollution issues solved, CO2 a benefit not a danger
By Staff, ICECAP, Apr 22, 2022
Resourceful Earth Day (celebrate freedom, innovation)
By Pierre Desrochers and Jasmin Guénette, Master Resource, Apr 22, 2022
Why is the CO₂ Concentration Rising?
By Frans Schrijver. WUWT, Apr 22, 2022
Model Issues
Changes In Vegetation Shaped Global Temperatures Over Last 10,000 Years
Press Release, Washington University in St. Louis, Apr 15, 2022
Link to paper: Northern Hemisphere vegetation change drives a Holocene thermal maximum
By Alexander Thompson, et al. Science Advances, Apr 15, 2022
Measurement Issues — Surface
Lies, d**n lies and rainfall data
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
March Mean Temperature Data For UK, Ireland Show No Early Spring Trend Taking Place, Stable Since Decades
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 20, 2022
Changing Weather
Another, Third Planet-Cooling La Niña? Dr. Ryan Maue Sees Strong Chance Of This Occurrence
Is the third La Niña on the way?
By Die kalte Sonne (Translated, edited by No Tricks Zone), Apr 16, 2022
April 22, 1883, Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 22, 2022
Why so little lightning in the Pacific Northwest? And a very nice weekend ahead.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 22, 2022
Podcast
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Yes, that Little Ice Age
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
Link to: Western researchers first to map effects of England’s ‘little ice age’
Interactive GIS database chronicles 500-year-old extreme climate events
By Debora Van Benk, Western News, Apr 12, 2022
Presentation: WEMS Presents: Madeline Bassnett and Daryl Wakunick
Western University, University College, London
http://www.events.westernu.ca/events/english-and-writing-studies/2022-04/wems-presents.html
Changing Seas
Washed Away – A Short Film About Sea Level Fall
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Apr 22, 2022
Death, where is thy sting?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
We’re All Going To Drown–Part 98
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 21, 2022
Sinking Cities and Sea Level Rise
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Apr 21, 2022
CDN by the sea: Juneau Alaska
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
“From 1980 to the present the sea surface at Juneau has risen by nearly 15.5 mm per year. And to make it even scarier, it’s rising down, because “nearly” in this case is a euphemism for “minus”. Where will it all end?”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
1939 – Glaciers Retreated Back To Pre-16th Century Position
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 19, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Responses to Rising Hunger Could Threaten Climate Goals
European policy makers are considering easing environmental protection measures to allow for increased crop production
By Sara Schonhardt, E&E News, Via Scientific American, Apr18, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Climate goals are more important than famine from the once Scientific American?]
Lowering Standards
Seeing the forest for the trees
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
“Meanwhile at National Geographic ‘No computer model can yet project how climate will change forests globally – or how their carbon stores will feed back on climate’. But it isn’t necessary to know what’s happening or what’s going to because all effects of climate change are bad, even ones we can’t see, and vice versa.’”
Rowlatt [BBC] Accused Of Supporting Unlawful Radical Activism
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 22, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Carbon Dioxide and Climate – Friend or Foe?
By Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker, Apr 18, 2022 [H/t John Dale Dunn]
“The Asia Pacific Forum on Women, Law and Development, a consultant organization to the UN, claims, ‘If we are to address the climate crisis we need to challenge the structural causes of the crisis which lies on unequal distribution of wealth, of carbon, and of power.’”
Climate groups say social media companies leave ‘public in the dark’ on misinformation policies
By Rebecca Klar, The Hill, Apr 21, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
137 million in US live with unhealthy levels of air pollution: American Lung Association
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Apr 21, 2022
“Fine particulate matter — particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns, also known as PM 2.5 — can be especially deadly, the report warned.”
[SEPP Comment: Mathematical ridiculousness. Unable to link to report.]
Gas is falling as an electricity source and may have peaked
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 20, 2022
Link to report: U.S. 2022 Power Sector Outlook
The Renewable Energy Transition Takes Off
By Dennis Wamsted, et al. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, April 2022
http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2022-US-Power-Sector-Outlook_April-2022.pdf
“The compelling economics and proven reliability of renewable energy and storage have changed perceptions in utility and corporate boardrooms across the U.S., driving a buildout of wind and solar generation portfolios and prompting businesses and consumers to push for greater access to green energy.”
[SEPP Comment: Fantasyland economics is not compelling economics.]
The New York Times Does Energy Storage
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 20, 2022
“Don’t worry, in New York Times world the government has infinite money. The Times’s job is to demand that it be spent, and then sit back and wait for utopia to arrive.”
Fake News: Wind Tops Coal & Nuclear for First Time in US History
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 17, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Dispelling the doomsday propaganda in DisneyNature’s new polar bear ‘documentary’
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 20, 2022
“In the case of ‘Our Planet’, WWF bankrolled the film series for Netflix to ensure the content they desired; in ‘Polar Bear’, the tables are turned: DisneyNature is paying PBI [Polar Bears International] for their assistance getting the polar bear film shots and providing their biased content, via money they are calling a research grant.”
Media Recycles Debunked “Epic” Climate Litigation Stories for Earth Day
By William Allison, Energy In Depth, Apr 19, 2022
ClimateCraze
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 16, 2022
A collection of videos
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Climate alarmism posing as science education for children
By David Worjick, CFACT, Apr 21, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors
A Proposed Rule by the Securities and Exchange Commission on 04/11/2022
This document has a comment period that ends in 29 days. (05/20/2022)
Final NEPA Rule Will Encourage Anti-Development Lawsuits Against Fossil Fuel Projects
By Mario Loyola & Marlo Lewis, CEI, Apr 19, 2022
Colorado River deemed ‘most endangered river’ in the US: report
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Apr 18, 2022
Link to report: America’s Most Endangered Rivers® of 2022
By Staff, American Rivers, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Need to return to the good old days such as the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 or remove the Hoover Dam?]
Questioning European Green
New Study: Wind, Solar Energy Now Killing 48% Of Priority Bird Species With ‘Population-Level Effects’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 21, 2022
Link to paper: Vulnerability of avian populations to renewable energy production
By Tara J. Conkling, Royal Society Open Science, Mar 30, 2022
Govt’s Wind Strategy Ignores Intermittency
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 22, 2022
Link to report: Major acceleration of homegrown power in Britain’s plan for greater energy independence
Cleaner and more affordable energy to be made in Great Britain under bold plans to boost long-term energy independence, security and prosperity.
By Staff, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, UK, Gov, Apr 6, 2022
Anti-Gas Activists are Running on Empty
By Connor Tomlinson, Net Zero Watch, Apr 20, 2022
Link to policy paper: British energy security strategy
By Staff, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, UK Govt. Apr 7, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green Energy’s Hidden Eagle Slaughter
By Jim Wiegand, Master Resource, Apr 19, 2022
Nothing Here? AWEA/ACPA on Altamont Pass’s Golden Eagle Carnage in 2011
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 20, 2022
Funding Issues
Transportation department announces over $6 billion to reduce transportation emissions
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 21, 2022
“The Carbon Reduction Program (CRP), funded by the bipartisan infrastructure law, will go toward local and state projects aimed at reducing on-road highway-based carbon dioxide emissions. These could range from installing infrastructure to electrify freight vehicles to improving the terrain for bicycles.”
Woke Investors Threaten the West’s Security
In an era of rising geopolitical tensions, it is folly to let Wall Street determine the nation’s energy policy.
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, April 18, 2022
Naughty! World’s 30 biggest Funds go “Net Zero”, but invest $550 billion in oil, gas, coal anyhow
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 21, 2022
Oil Sands Financing From Canadian Banks Doubles
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Apr 11, 2022
Litigation Issues
Charleston SC’s Junk Climate Change Lawsuit
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 18, 2022
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The Price Is Right: Solving Climate Crisis With a Carbon Tax
By Mary Anna Mancuso, Real Clear Energy, April 21, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Taxes for an imaginary crisis?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
ROC Windfall Profits Hit £923 Million In December 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 22, 2022
“I have written before of how renewable generators are profiteering from the Renewable Obligation scheme. I now have the generation data from December 2021 to quantify just how much.”
Net Zero Watch has accused the Prime Minister of being economical with the truth about the cost of renewable energy levies.
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Apr 22, 2022
Link to factsheet: The cost of green levies
By John Constable, Net Zero Watch, No date
Government plans to scrap green energy levies welcomed
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Apr 19, 2022
Link to Factsheet: The cost of green levies (pdf)
By John Constable, Net Zero Watch, No date
A great wind, or not?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 20, 2022
“Frankly just about anybody can outsell their competitors if their competitors are ordered by the government to sell less so they can sell more. But what is to become of the consumer, the power grid and even government finances if it turns out that people cannot build wind turbines unless their operators are allowed to charge much higher prices than other types of energy need to?”
Energy Issues – Non-US
How Much Energy Will the World Need?
By Mark Mills, Video, Prager U, Mar 28, 2022
“And the global information infrastructure—the Cloud— already uses twice as much electricity as the entire country of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy. The massive data centers at the heart of the Cloud alone consume almost 10 times more electricity than the world’s 10 million electric cars.”
The Problem With America’s LNG Boom
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Apr 19, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Given EU energy policy, will Europeans sign long-term contracts for imports?]
Clean energy’s dirty secret: How push for modern technology has made Chinese pond toxic
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 18, 2022
Energy Crisis in the UK: 40% face fuel poverty by winter and Govt may finally stop “Green Levies” (too late)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 22, 2022
Ban new boiler sales to switch people over to heat pumps, says infrastructure tsar
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 18, 2022
“Armitt, who is also Chairman of the National Express Group and City & Guilds, Deputy Chairman of the Berkeley Group and a member of the Board of Transport for London, is obviously not short of a bob or two. To him and his ilk, £15000 is loose change. The fact that policy decisions, which will hugely impact ordinary people, are being formulated by him tells us everything that is wrong with our system of government.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Australian electricity price doubles: CEO explains prices up due to lack of coal power
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 19, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A short-term price increase that may become persistent.]
Energy Issues — US
Russia-Ukraine Crisis Amplifies Need for Washington to Protect Americans from High Utility Costs
By Dave Schryver & John Olshefski, Real Clear Energy, April 17, 2022
Washington’s Control of Energy
GOP states urge Biden to reauthorize Keystone XL pipeline: ‘We told you so’
The AG’s said few viable options remain to import oil from Canada
By Bradford Betz, Fox Business, Apr 18, 2022
Biden Restarts Oil Leasing on Federal Lands
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Apr 18, 2022
“According to a release by the Department of the Interior, this week will see some 144,000 acres put up for leasing, with the department noting this is a much smaller acreage than previously nominated—some 80 percent smaller.
“In addition to that, the Department of the Interior will increase royalty rates for new leases to 18.75 percent and said that bidders would be held to stringent environmental standards.”
Joe Biden’s energy policies will prolong the current crisis, oil and gas executive says
By Sam Tabahriti, Business Insider, Apr 17, 2022
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Emerging Oil Producers Could Get A Boost As The West Pivots Away From Russia
By Felicity Bradstock, Oil Price.com, Apr 14, 2022
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Biden announces $6B to bail out nuclear plants at risk of closure
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 19, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A subsidy to undo the harm created by subsidizing wind and solar?]
For Uranium and Nuclear, the U.S. Should Turn Inward
By Dan Ervin, Real Clear Energy, April 21, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
White House announces Earth Day climate push
By Kelsey Brugger, E & E News, Apr 18, 2022
Biden administration announces clean energy growth on public lands
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 20, 2022
“Clean energy on public lands is growing, with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) increasing its renewable energy permitting by 35 percent last fiscal year.”
[SEPP Comment: Expanding unreliable electricity.]
Golden Eagles and Industrial Wind: Justice Served (cats, windows not applicable)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 18, 2022
“The Michigan chapter of the Sierra Club states, ‘Wind turbines can be removed when something better comes along.’ To which true environmentalists can add: we can’t wait that long.”
Wealthy Progressives: We Love Wind Power, Except When It’s Near Us
By Jim Geraghty, National Review, Apr 18, 2022
Do Offshore Wind Turbines Impact Fishing?
Wind farms seem to be popping up everywhere. But what’s the ultimate cost to fishermen?
By Paul Richards, Field & Stream, Apr 18, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kesphire]
Link to government report: Wind Market Reports: 2021 Edition
By Staff, Wind Energy Technologies Office, Accessed Apr 20, 2022
Link to Offshore Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition Released
By Staff, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, Wind Technologies Office, Aug 30, 2021
When is green not all that green? Earth Day clean energy revelations
By Jason Hayes, The Hill, Apr 23, 2022
Youngkin administration sets stricter runoff rules for solar farms
Solar industry caught off guard by changes, but some local governments concerned about project impacts
By Sarah Vogelsong, Virginia Mercury, Apr 18, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
E-15 May Do More Food Price Harm than Gas Price Good
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Apr 12, 2022
The Green Hydrogen Swindle
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 16, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Dominion hopes big batteries will fill in renewable energy gaps
By Sean Sublette, Richard Times-Dispatch, Apr 20, 2022
“If all continues to go as planned, Dominion will add about 2,700 megawatts of storage over the next 15 years, enough to power approximately 650,000 homes at peak. The full cost of these three projects is about $33 million, which the State Corporation has deemed “reasonable and prudent.” The SCC will determine if the costs will be passed on to Dominion’s customers in the future.”
[SEPP Comment: How long is the peak, one minute? Dominion owns the largest “battery” in the US, a pumped-storage facility in Bath County, VA. It is replenished by nuclear, and coal-fired power plants.]
Environmental Industry
America’s Biggest ‘Green’ Groups Love Wind Turbines, Not Eagles
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, April 20, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Interesting question not discussed: Do wind turbines kill more eagles than DDT?]
Other News that May Be of Interest
China’s Governance Model Only Looks Worse As Time Goes On
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A problem of government meritocracy is that government bureaucracy promotes those who conform to government policies, over those who think independently to advance public goals.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
‘It’s critical the message makes it to the mainstream’: NASA climate scientist speaks on his tearful protest
Peter Kalmus was among a group of scientists who chained themselves to a JPMorgan Chase building in Los Angeles in protest of the bank’s financing of fossil fuels
By Ethan Freedman, Independent, UK, Apr 18, 2022
ARTICLES
1. How to Kill American Infrastructure on the Sly
The White House revises NEPA rules that will scuttle new roads, bridges and oil and gas pipelines.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, April 20, 2022
TWTW Summary: The editorial states:
Americans are going to need a split-screen for the Biden Administration’s policy contradictions. Even as the President on Tuesday promoted the bipartisan infrastructure bill he signed last November, the White House moved to make it harder to build roads, bridges and, of course, oil and natural-gas pipelines.
After discussing the Russian offensive in Ukraine, the editorial continues:
The White House Council on Environmental Quality is revising rules under the National Environmental Policy Act for permitting major construction projects. CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory says the changes will ‘provide regulatory certainty’ and ‘reduce conflict.’ Instead, they will cause more litigation and delays that raise construction costs, if they don’t kill projects outright.
NEPA requires federal agencies to review the environmental impact of major projects that are funded by the feds or require a federal permit. Reviews can take years and run thousands of pages, covering the smallest potential impact on species, air or water quality. Project developers can be forced to mitigate these effects by, say, relocating species.
While the 1970 law was intended to prevent environmental disasters, it has become a weapon to block development. The Trump Administration sought to fast-track projects by limiting NEPA reviews to environmental effects that are directly foreseeable—e.g., how a pipeline’s construction would affect a stream it crosses.
Some liberal judges, however, have interpreted NEPA broadly to require the study of effects that indirectly result from a project such as CO2 emissions. Now the Biden Administration is mandating this. CEQ’s new rule will require agencies to calculate the ‘indirect’ and ‘cumulative impacts’ that ‘can result from individually minor but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time.’ This means death by a thousand regulatory cuts for many projects.
The Transportation Department will likely have to examine how a highway expansion could increase greenhouse-gas emissions in concert with new warehouses. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission might have to calculate how a new pipeline would affect emissions from upstream production and downstream consumption.
Wait—didn’t FERC recently walk back its policy to do exactly this? The White House is thumbing its nose at West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who blasted FERC’s now-suspended policy for shutting ‘down the infrastructure we desperately need as a country.’
The rule’s obvious intent is to make it harder to build pipelines, roads and other infrastructure that would enable more U.S. oil and gas production, even as the Administration makes phony gestures to reduce energy prices. Last Friday the Administration announced it would comply with a court order to hold oil and gas lease sales on public land. Those leases won’t matter if energy companies can’t get federal permits for rights-of-way.
****************
2. All Hail, Anthony Fauci
The doctor says courts should defer to public-health experts like him.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, April 22, 2022
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“Public-health officials have often wielded power during the pandemic as if the law and Constitution don’t matter, even if they haven’t said so explicitly. Anthony Fauci is finally telling it in the raw.
“‘The principle of a court overruling a public health judgment by a qualified organization like the CDC is disturbing in the precedent that it might send,’ the National Institutes of Health official told CBS on Thursday.
“Democrats are lambasting Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle’s well-reasoned ruling this week striking down the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s mask mandate on public transportation. But few, if any, have argued like Dr. Fauci that federal courts shouldn’t be allowed to review CDC diktats. Mull over the implications of this one.
“The mask mandate ‘is a CDC issue. It should not have been a court issue,’ Dr. Fauci told CNN, adding that ‘we are concerned’ about ‘courts getting involved in things that are unequivocally public-health decisions.’ Ah, yes, the royal ‘we.’ Does the Covid czar think the Supreme Court should have been precluded from reviewing the CDC’s rental eviction moratorium too?”
TWTW comment: Childhood vaccination is a powerful, cost-effective tool for public health. Fauci’s arrogance has given anti-vaxxers powerful arguments against childhood vaccination.
Thermal radiative Climate Science theory for example.
“Very unfortunately, and very critically important, is that the IPCC cannot present any clear scientific facts that such gases actually produce their claimed warming due to climate change.”
My suggestion put a prize of $10million dollars for someone to prove the so called scientific facts.
This site like all the others does not cut through. Something like a multimillion prize would even cut though with the BBC and CNN. I would love to see the excuses from the alarmists why they can’t collect the money.
There are no facts that prove what ever is claimed.
Models can’t verify reality.
https://www.informath.org/Contest1000.htm
😀
Thanks for that., pity he died this year. If you look at this and every other like website, they have being going around in circles for decades. I think a stunt like a ridiculous amount of money as a prize would force a conversation about the lack of observational evidence into the mainstream media. Eventualy even the dumbest journalist would work out why no one can prove AGW and maybe starting asking for answers about the so called settled science.
That Feynman quote means the same as “overthinking”, maybe easier to grasp.
There are several active sunspots in the northern solar hemisphere that produce M-class flares. Low activity in the southern hemisphere, indicating a lack of synchronization of southern and northern magnetic field activity.
“La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, with both the ocean and atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niña through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niña would be pretty unusual—we’ve only seen two others since 1950.”
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This is not surprising when you track the slow increase in solar wind strength over the 25th solar cycle. A stronger solar wind drives the Antarctic jet stream and the Southern Oscillation. The polar vortex to the south will be strong.
Very strong temperature drop of the Peruvian Current.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
In November, the temperature of the Peruvian Current will drop as cold water from melting sea ice in the Pacific arrives.
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.202204.gif
It is highly likely that La Niña is affecting the slowing of sea ice melt in the north (less water vapor from the tropics reaching high latitudes).
The polar vortex in the south is strong. It will affect the faster ice growth.
“Below we have a special graphic, that shows the Spring temperature impact of a La Nina phase for the United States. We can see that the cold north/warm south pattern extends into the Spring season.”
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-update-cooling-warm-cold-season-forecast-fa/?fbclid=IwAR0h8tZqh-xJZh0h86PpWXBO2Oyf8_ysZqF8D3Z-RrMOdwwyfrUgUGMO-g8