The Week That Was: 2022-04-09 (April 9, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “When a politician says the debate is over, you can be sure of two things: the debate is raging, and he’s losing it” – George Will, political commentator [H/t Ron Clutz]
Number of the Week: 18,000
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The third part in the four-part series called the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This episode is called “Mitigation of Climate Change” and it is the product of Working Group III which “focuses on climate change mitigation, assessing methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.” Of course, the key assumption is that the group understands climate change and its causes, which it does not. TWTW will discuss a few of the deficiencies in the report. https://www.ipcc.ch/working-group/wg3/
Ross McKitrick published a paper showing another set of errors in using statistics to falsely attribute natural events to human caused climate change. After over thirty years the IPCC has not learned to use competent statisticians to examine studies claiming human cause.
As Richard Feynman stated: “If there is something very slightly wrong in our definition of the theories, then the full mathematical rigor may convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.” (TWTW, Mar 26). The problem is that many politicized scientist, bureaucrats, and politicians claim the ridiculous conclusions are science facts, the same as physical evidence. TWTW will discuss several more examples from NOAA and The Lancet.
The UK government announced it will address the problems brought by not importing Russian gas by relying on more unreliable, expensive wind power and reliable, expensive nuclear power. As discussed below, the problem is that they are fundamentally incompatible.
Francis Menton mentions a graph by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showing that the “Per-capita CO2 emissions in China now exceed the average in advanced economies.” Of course, this graph renders foolish the claims that advanced economies must curtail carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. China and Southeast Asia will not stop the use of fossil fuels that is bringing them out of poverty. It takes more than one generation to forget what poverty is.
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy prices are exploding. For the US and Canada, which can be independent of imported fossil fuels, politicians are doing their best to promote temporary “fixes” as permanent solutions to the problems their policies create. A few examples will be discussed.
Howard Hayden corrected a small error in essay # 6 of his Basic Climate Physics. Correction of error is critical for science to advance. Failure to correct error is one reason IPCC science has stagnated.
For readers who live in the Washington Metropolitan area, solar physicist Willie Soon is giving a lecture on Monday evening, on “The Weaponization of Science: Politics, Vilification, and the Climate Debate” at the Hillsdale College Center on Capitol Hill.
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Mitigation of Climate Change? To lessen harmful climate change the IPCC must identify the causes. It claims that 80% of global warming is caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases, without giving any physical evidence. It claims as physical evidence the projections, forecasts, and predictions from climate models which fail basic testing against physical evidence. Thus, as a physical science, the models are worthless for prediction. As discussed a number of times in TWTWs, such as in the January 29, 2022, climate modeler Mototaka Nakamura and physicist Stephen Koonin have stated that climate simulation models may be a useful teaching tool but are of no value for prediction. Nakamura wrote:
“Before pointing out a few of the serious flaws in climate simulation models, in defense of those climate researchers who use climate simulation models for various meaningful scientific projects, I want to emphasize here that climate simulation models are fine tools to study the climate system, so long as the users are aware of the limitations of the models and exercise caution in designing experiments and interpreting their output. In this sense, experiments to study the response of simplified climate systems, such as those generated by the ‘state-of-the-art’ climate simulation models, to major increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases are also interesting and meaningful academic projects that are certainly worth pursuing. So long as the results of such projects are presented with disclaimers that unambiguously state the extent to which the results can be compared with the real world, I would not have any problem with such projects. The models just become useless pieces of junk or worse (worse, in a sense that they can produce gravely misleading output) only when they are used for climate forecasting.
“All climate simulation models have many details that become fatal flaws when they are used as climate forecasting tools, especially for mid- to long-term (several years and longer) climate variations and changes. These models completely lack some of critically important climate processes and feedbacks and represent some other critically important climate processes and feedbacks in grossly distorted manners to the extent that makes these models useless for any meaningful climate prediction. It means that they are also completely useless for assessing the effects of the past atmospheric carbon dioxide increase on the climate. I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and limitations in the process.” [Boldface added]
The same TWTW discussed a paper by Richard Lindzen which identified major problems of the IPCC reports, part of which are below:
- The core of the system consists in two turbulent fluids (the atmosphere and oceans) interacting with each other.
- The two fluids are on a rotating planet that is differentially [unevenly] heated by the sun and unevenly absorbing the solar warming. Solar rays directly hit the equator and skim the earth at the poles resulting in uneven heating, which drives the circulation of the atmosphere. The result is heat transport from the equator towards the poles (meridional).
- The earth’s climate system is never in equilibrium. [Boldface added]
- In addition to the oceans, the atmosphere is interacting with a hugely irregular land surface distorting the airflow, causing planetary scale waves, which are not accurately described in climate models.
- A vital component of the atmosphere is water in its liquid, solid, and vapor phases, and the changes in phases have immense dynamic consequences. Each phase affects incoming and outgoing radiation differently. Substantial heat is released when water vapor condenses, driving thunder clouds. Further, clouds consist of water in the form of fine droplets and ice crystals. Normally, these are suspended by rising air currents, but when these grow large enough, they fall as rain and snow. The energies involved in phase changes are important, as well as the fact that both water vapor and clouds strongly affect radiation.
“The two most important greenhouse substances by far are water vapor and clouds. Clouds are also important reflectors of sunlight. These matters are discussed in detail in the IPCC WG1 reports, each of which openly acknowledge clouds as major sources of uncertainty in climate modeling.” [Boldface added]
Despite great advances in understanding the atmosphere over the past 40 plus years, the IPCC continues to ignore its characteristics, including atmospheric temperature trends. In reporting the latest findings by the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, including March 2022, Roy Spencer writes:
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
This modest rise is within natural variability and does not constitute a climate crisis. Nor does it mean that the linear trend will continue at the same rate.
In addition, the work of W. A. van Wijngaarden & W. Happer for a cloud-free atmosphere shows that there is no generalized theory for the greenhouse effect. That the influence of greenhouse gases on temperature changes with altitude and latitude. For example, the influence of Ozone increases from the surface to the Stratosphere up to about 40 km (25 mi) in the mid-latitudes before declining. Further, all five of major greenhouse gases are saturated, meaning that their effectiveness declines with increasing concentration and carbon dioxide and water vapor are strongly saturated.
Using the work of W. A. van Wijngaarden & W. Happer, Atomic, Molecular, and Optical physicist Howard Hayden developed ten essays on Basic Climate Physics, posted on the SEPP website. These essays show that the UN IPCC can account for less than 25% of the heat needed to raise the earth’s surface temperature by 3 degrees C from a doubling of greenhouse gases which is the average claim of the IPCC.
Any organization that claims to be able to forecast the earth’s climate without correctly considering the characteristics of the atmosphere is a political organization, not a scientific one. The findings of the UN IPCC are political, not scientific. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, past TWTWs, https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2021/03/WPotency.pdf?x45936, and
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm,
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Incompetent Statistics? Statistician Stephen McIntyre and Econometrician Ross McKitrick demolished the notorious hockey-stick featured in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (AR3, 2001).
In addition, McIntyre has shown that the 2000-year hockey-stick featured in the Summary for Policymakers of The Physical Science Basis, of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) is statistical nonsense. The authors assemble many examples of unrelated proxy data into a hockey-stick and assert that the data sources are related. But they fail to use physical evidence showing their relationships and are contradicted by well-established long-term proxies.
McKitrick has shown that attributing probabilities of human cause to unusual weather events is without an established theoretical basis in Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Theory and is most likely highly biased.
Now, McKitrick shows huge problems in a different statistical technique used by climate researchers, Total Least Squares (TLS) in assigning human cause to weather events. McKitrick writes:
Continuing my exploration of the statistical elements of the IPCC climate attribution methodology I have a couple of papers under review at journals in which I use Monte Carlo simulations to analyse the properties of Total Least Squares (TLS, the preferred regression method) under conditions typical in a signal detection regression. There is very little underlying theory about when TLS yields consistent or unbiased results. In a single-variable model with a random explanatory variable TLS corrects a downward bias in Ordinary Least Squares (OLS, the standard regression method). But in many other cases it over-corrects or introduces new biases, and consistency results are not available without imposing unrealistic and untestable assumptions. In one paper I examine the consequences of omitted variables bias, and I will disseminate that paper separately. In this paper I look at what happens if the explanatory variables are allowed to be correlated (as they are in signal detection regressions). The results are, frankly, bizarre. I have posted a draft of the paper on the Earth and Space Science pre-print archive here: [Boldface added, see link below]
The term “bizarre” may be an understatement. Organizations that use statistics need to have their work reviewed by competent statisticians. Unfortunately, with the use of “packaged statistical programs,” many users do not understand the theoretical limitations of statistics. It will be interesting to see if the final episode of AR6, The Synthesis Report, due in September contains the same statistical nonsense. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Bandwagon Science: NOAA has gone on the methane emissions bandwagon by developing mathematical absurdities. NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad stated:
“The evidence is consistent, alarming, and undeniable. We need to build a Climate Ready Nation to adapt for what’s already here and prepare for what’s to come. At the same time, we can no longer afford to delay urgent and effective action needed to address the cause of the problem – greenhouse gas pollution,”
According to the NOAA report:
“’Reducing methane emissions is an important tool we can use right now to lessen the impacts of climate change in the near term, and rapidly reduce the rate of warming,’ Spinrad said. ‘Let’s not forget that methane also contributes to ground-level ozone formation, which causes roughly 500,000 premature deaths each year around the world.’”
Without physical evidence, the claim is a mathematically absurdity. Breathing indoor air from burning dung is a health risk, but ground level ozone from methane is another matter. Is living near swamps in Southeast US deadly? The W. A. van Wijngaarden & W. Happer paper covers the positive climate feedbacks of methane. Strangely, the IPCC has no negative feedbacks to global warming except humans darkening the skies. Yet the earth has cooled before. NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory loses credibility with such reports.
Donn Dears reports on another study showing Americans are villains who produce more than their “fair share” of carbon dioxide.
“Cutting the carbon footprint of rich countries is useless because these emissions will be replaced by emissions from growing nations.”
“This paper exposes these claims as willfully ignorant, at best. By far the worst polluters are the super-rich, most of whom live in high income countries.”
Do academics who advocate a subsistence lifestyle for Americans lead by example to show how it is done? In their calculations do they include the carbon costs of their computers which require extremely reliable electricity to manufacture? Or the costs of storing data on the cloud, which requires reliable electricity?
The once respected medical journal The Lancet now has a section called Planetary Health. It ran an article stating: “National responsibility for ecological breakdown: a fair-shares assessment of resource use, 1970–2017” claiming wealthy nations are responsible for 74% of worldwide ecological harm. Obviously, they fail to account for the benefits of adding CO2 to the atmosphere and the enormous damage of subsistence farming. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.
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Continued Failure of Wind: The UK government is providing a great example of what not to do. Instead of trying to develop domestic sources of natural gas, which can complement shortcomings as nuclear comes online, it is going for wind and nuclear. John Constable writes:
“OUR energy policy has been an incoherent mess since the early 2000s when Tony Blair forced the UK off the carefully engineered and economical gas-to- nuclear strategy that was then under way.”
“Far from clearing up Tony’s mess, Boris and his Government appear to have learned nothing from the failure of the New Labour energy policies.”
Constable and Paul Homewood point out that wind and nuclear power are incompatible. Both types of electrical generation are expensive, but the former is highly erratic, unstable, and unreliable, while nuclear is stable and reliable. To TWTW that a large part of the cost of nuclear power is due to concerns with safety that border on neurotic.
As Homewood writes concerning nuclear expansion:
“The current strike price for Hinkley Point C [nuclear] is £113.83/MWh. If prices could be reduced to below £100/MWh, it would make economic sense given current power prices of double that.
“There are two issues raised by this strategy:
“1) Who will build and fund them? [the nuclear reactors]
“2) A nuclear strategy rather undermines the case for wind and solar power. With the baseload provided by nuclear, wind and solar power will be redundant much of the time.
“And, of course, you cannot simply ramp nuclear up and down to match the vagaries of renewables. Quite apart from the technical issues, the economic case for nuclear depends on 24/7 operation.” See links under Energy Issues – Non-US and Nuclear Energy and Fears
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Unreal! The problems for the UK and EU for cutting off Russian oil and gas are real. It takes time to convert to other forms of electricity generation and wind and solar are unreliable unless an affordable, utility scale form of storage is found. As Francis Menton discussed in last week’s TWTW and below “Reality Cannot Penetrate Into The Fantasy World Of Climate Campaigners.”
“For example, why would a small-population jurisdiction like New York — with about 20 million people, compared to about 2.8 billion for the combination of China and India, and with existing fossil-fuel electricity generation capacity of about 25 GW — struggle to reduce its fossil-fueled electricity generation by, say, one GW per year, when China alone is adding 38 GW of coal-fired power plants this year, and another 47 GW next year, with hundreds more gigawatts worth of coal plants already in the pipeline?”
Further, false promises abound. In discussing a report by the Lazard consulting firm, Andrew Montford writes:
“The graph apparently shows a dramatic fall in the costs of various forms of renewable energy. However, with the best will in the world, the numbers it shows are, well, junk.”
“And the Lazard figure doesn’t look anything like the equivalent figures for UK offshore windfarms either. The UK is important in this field because it has half of the global offshore wind fleet, as well as completely transparent cost data, in the form of Companies House audited accounts. This data shows that the typical capital cost is now around £3.5m/MW, so up to twice the figure suggested by Lazards.”
US offshore wind plans also show imaginative accounting. Add to this the false climate crisis and China, alone, exceeded per capita emissions of advanced economies according to the EIA:
“On a per capita basis, CO2 emissions in advanced economies have fallen to 8.2 tonnes on average and are now below the average of 8.4 tonnes in China. However, the overall average for advanced economies masks significant differences: per capita emissions average 14 tonnes in the United States, 6 tonnes in the European Union, and 3.2 tonnes in Mexico.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy. Energy Issues – US, Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Storage and Article # 1.
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Small Correction: In Basic Climate Physics #6, Howard Hayden corrects an error on the graph on the first page, Climate Constraint Equation. The values on the vertical axis, Greenhouse Gas Effect G were corrected to a range of 70 to 250 with the value of the horizontal line in the graph showing 159 rather than the previous 398. In entering data, a small typo can make a big difference. Correcting errors advances science, ignoring them does not. See http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm
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Monday Evening Lecture: As seen through his own case concerning climate science, award-winning astrophysicist and geoscientist Willie Soon will explain how science has become politicized to target scientists who disagree with the dominant narrative of the scientific community. Dr. Soon will also consider how science could be reformed to be more open and better able to investigate and debate questions of public policy. There is no cost, but reservations are recommended to attend. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16.
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Number of the Week: 18,000. According to promotional material: “The IPCC report included 278 authors from 65 countries reviewing over 18,000 scientific papers” all in an effort to avoid discussing the characteristics of the atmosphere where the greenhouse effect occurs. If the greenhouse effect is not significantly increasing in the atmosphere, it cannot cause dangerous warming of the surface. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
The Weaponization of Science: Politics, Vilification, and the Climate Debate.
By Dr. Willie Soon, Hillsdale College Allan P. Kirby, Jr. Center, 6:30 pm, April 11, 2022
227 Massachusetts Avenue Northeast, Washington, DC 20002
Something Weird About Total Least Squares in Optimal Fingerprinting-Type Regressions
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Mar 25, 2022
Link to paper: Total Least Squares Bias when Explanatory Variables are Correlated
By Ross McKitrick, Earth and Space Science, (EssoAr), Mar 24, 2022
online paper
Reality Cannot Penetrate Into The Fantasy World Of Climate Campaigners
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 5, 2022
On Lazard
Renewables Are a Catastrophic Mistake
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Apr 4, 2022
Link to report by Lazard
Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy (“LCOE”) analysis addresses the following topics:
By Staff, Lazard, November 2019
Climate Alarmist Claim Fact Checks
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, Apr 7, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttals_updated/
New IPCC Report Deals in Politically Convenient Fictions Rather than Fact-Based Reality
By Patrick J. Michaels, CEI, Apr 4, 2022
And if they don’t know that…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
“In fact we already have. We did a whole video on it. Which he seems to have missed. So here’s the brief summary: ECS, which stands for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, is central to the discussion of atmospheric CO2 because what the science actually says is that if CO2 has the warming effects many scientists have believed since Svante Arrhenius’s pioneering work, then as Barmby says ‘The relationship between global warming to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not linear, it is logarithmic.’”
Wildfires and mudslides already in the environmental media
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Apr 4, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/wildfires_already_in_the_environmental_news1/
China Continues To Laugh At Western “Green Energy” Foolishness
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 2, 2022
Link to IEA report: Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2021
By Staff, EIA, March 2022
You’ll Miss Fossil Fuels When They’re Gone
Progressives may loathe oil and gas, but modern life doesn’t work without them.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2022
“The following article appeared in the Wall Street Journal:” [By Allysia Finley]
Population Bombing
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Apr 6, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
IPCC: Window to avert catastrophic climate change is quickly closing
By Ben Adler, Yahoo News, Apr 4, 2022
Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers
Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
By Staff, IPCC, WMO, UNEP, Working Group III, April 7, 2022
White House details ‘immense’ risks of climate change for federal budget
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 4, 2022
Meanwhile, OMB analyses determined climate change could cost federal revenues of about 7.1 percent, or $2 trillion a year, by the end of the century.
[SEPP Comment: Destroy the economy now so it won’t be damaged in 80 years?]
Climate Intervention
A Policy Statement of the American Meteorological Society
Adopted by the AMS Council on 2 February 2022 [H/t Edwin Berry]
“Greenhouse gas emissions, particularly of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, have already contributed and will continue to contribute to widespread climate changes, with major negative consequences for most humans and ecosystems. This has motivated discussion of mechanisms to reduce warming of the Earth system through intentional interventions, with the goal of reducing the negative impacts of climate change.”
Five Takeaways from the UN’s Latest 3,000-Page Climate Report
We read it so you don’t have to.
By Eric Roston, Bloomberg, Apr 4, 2022
1. 1.5°C is almost out of reach
2. We know what to do and have the tools to do it
3. Carbon removal is “unavoidable” to reach net zero
4. Behavior matters
5. Politics shapes the process
‘It’s now or never’: World’s top climate scientists issue ultimatum on critical temperature limit
By Sam Meredith, CNBC, Sustainable Future, Apr 4, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Americans are the Villains
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 8, 2022
Link to paper: Impacts of poverty alleviation on national and global carbon emissions
By Benedikt Bruckner, Klaus Hubacek, et al. Nature Sustainability, Feb 14. 2022
Wealthy nations responsible for 74 percent of ecological harm: study
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 8, 2022
Link to paper: National responsibility for ecological breakdown: a fair-shares assessment of resource use, 1970–2017
By Prof Jason Hickel, et al, The Lancet: Planetary Health,
[SEPP Comment: China is wealthy? How about Vietnam?]
Methane emissions break record for second consecutive year: NOAA
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 7, 20222
Link to report: Increase in atmospheric methane set another record during 2021
Carbon dioxide levels also record a big jump
By Staff, NOAA, Apr 7, 2022
Questioning the Orthodoxy
New evidence of climate model hot biases Part I
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
Heartland Institute Climate Experts React to Latest UN IPCC Report
Press Release, The Heartland Institute, Apr 7, 2022
“‘The IPCC has been scandalously wrong regarding virtually all of their past predictions. There is no reason to believe this version will be any more accurate.’”
What do you call a leader with no followers?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
“Murphy provides his own concluding answer: ‘We are not leaders in the fight against global climate change. We are stooges in a mock show of virtue signaling.’”
What if reducing and eliminating fossil fuels is the biggest THREAT to our planet?
By Staff, Blaze TW, Apr 1, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
The dread 1.5 degree target is dead
By David Wojick, CFACT, Apr 8, 2022
“Who’s Talking Climate Change Now?”: Arab States Respond to Global Demand for Energy Security
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 2, 2022
In praise of ineffectual government
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
“The end result is that these people have so little idea what they’re doing in designing the plan that the only real consolation is that its execution will be in the hands of people who also have no idea what they’re doing and will end up accomplishing little and pretending much.”
Here Comes Another Climate Deadline That Will Pass Without Notice
By I & I Editorial Board, Apr 6, 2022
“The media, which loves to breathlessly report the demise of the world caused by human carbon dioxide emissions, says the 1.5-degree limit ‘is recognized as a crucial global target because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely. These are thresholds at which small changes can lead to dramatic shifts in Earth’s entire life support system.’”
[SEPP Comment: If the IPCC were the head of European exploration in the 1400s, it would have banned the voyage of Columbus in fear the ships would reach a tipping point and sail of the edge of the earth.]
How Climatologists Forgot the Sun Was Shining: Your Questions Answered
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Apr 6, 2022
Chile’s Economic Destruction is a Preview of what’s in Store for Biden’s America
By Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, Environment & Climate News, Mar 30, 2022
Deliberately Alarmist ‘The Last Time CO2 Was This High’ Claims Are Rooted In Guesswork, Not Science
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 4, 2022
Link to latest study: Revised alkenone δ<sup>13</sup>C based CO<sub>2</sub> estimates during the Plio-Pleistocene
By Osamu Seki and James Bendle, a book, 2021
Death By a Thousand Cuts Until Climate Scare Defeated
By Tom Harris, Real Clear Energy April 04, 2022
Master Resource: New Principals Joining In
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 5, 2022
After Paris!
Time for a Sensible Sense of Congress Resolution on the Paris Agreement
By Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Apr 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Is it not an agreement made by Obama to be ignored by future presidents just like Obama ignored the Clinton agreement to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine?]
Change in US Administrations
America Needs Proactive Energy Solutions, Not False Recriminations
By William Shughart II, Real Clear Energy, April 07, 2022
“The Biden administration created a bottleneck in the crude oil supply chain by canceling the Keystone XL pipeline that would have carried oil from fields in Canada and the Dakotas to refineries on the Gulf Coast. It’s far too late in the current crisis for restarting that project to have any immediate effect. Nor will releasing 180 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve do much to lessen the pain caused by Biden’s green energy policy agenda.”
Biden’s Budget Contains More Anti-Oil Proposals
By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Apr 1, 2022
Biden’s plan to starve America of fossil fuels
By Paul Driessen, CFACT, Mar 27, 2022
A message to Biden: We need more oil, let companies produce more oil
The Biden administration could take a few lessons from peanut farming
By Andy Puzder FOX Business, Apr 6, 2022
Biden only has himself to blame for America’s energy crisis
It’s enough with the White House’s gas-price gaslighting already
By Jessica Anderson, Washington Times, Apr 6, 2022
American energy policy digging economic grave for folks
By Vijay Jayaraj, BPR Business & Politics, Apr 6, 2022
“The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates 38.2 billion barrels of crude oil and 473.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in U.S. reserves. This ranks U.S. in the global top 10 for crude oil reserves. The current administration apparently would rather make America economically weak, spiraling towards hyper-inflation, rather than use resources readily available in its own backyard.”
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
The Many Benefits of Rising Atmospheric CO2 — An Introduction
By Craig D. Idso, Maser Resource, Apr 6, 2022
Human Flourishing Or “Living Naturally”: Alex Epstein’s Case For Using More Oil, Coal And Natural Gas
Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Mar 31, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
How the electricity market works
A Policy of Expanding the Use of Wind Power Will Increase Consumer Prices, Even If the Costs of Wind Are Lower
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Apr 4, 2022
“There are three things you need to understand before we can get to the nitty gritty. Firstly, cost and price are different. Cost is what it takes you to make, buy or produce something. Price is what you sell it for.
“Secondly, electricity is a commodity. In other words, when people are selling it, they are all selling the same thing.
“Thirdly, everyone in the electricity market is a rapacious capitalist (just as they are in all markets).”
Why Wishful Liberal Thinking Led to Disasters in Ukraine, Homelessness, And Climate
The good news is that everything is changing — and fast
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Apr 5, 2022
After Russia Freezes Europe – While Benny Peiser Tours Australia
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Apr 6, 2022
“I did once get to have lunch with Nigel Lawson; that was in Sydney many years ago. We had a view of the Opera House and he confirmed for me that the theory of catastrophic human-caused global warming really was the brainchild of Margaret Thatcher. She detested coal miners and wanted that industry closed. She succeeded in the UK, and the idea was since gone global.”
Energy Affordability: The Issue Everyone Is Ignoring
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Apr 4, 2022
Science, Policy, and Evidence
End U.S. Dependence on Mining in China
By Aaron Ringel, Real Clear Energy, April 05, 2022
Models v. Observations
Estimates of the carbon cycle – vital to predicting climate change – are incorrect, Virginia Tech researchers show
The findings do not counter the established science of climate change but highlight how the accounting of the amount of carbon withdrawn by plants and returned by soil is not accurate.
Press Release, By Max Esterhuizen, Virginia Tech, Apr 1, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Historically inconsistent productivity and respiration fluxes in the global terrestrial carbon cycle
By Jinshi Jian, et al. Nature Communications, Apr 1, 2022
New Study Finds Claims Of A Human-Induced Increase In Extreme Daily Rainfall Are Flawed And False
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 7, 2022
Link to paper: Effect of Time-Resolution of Rainfall Data on Trend Estimation for Annual Maximum Depths with a Duration of 24 Hours
By Renato Morbidelli, et al. Water, Nov 17, 2022
Model Issues
A tool for predicting the future
By Adam Zewe for MIT News. Boston MA (SPX), Mar 30, 2022
Link to report: On Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis and its Variants
By Anis Agarwal, et al, Preprint
“Making predictions using time-series data typically requires several data-processing steps and the use of complex machine-learning algorithms, which have such a steep learning curve they aren’t readily accessible to nonexperts.”
[SEPP Comment: Giving climate “experts” another tool to claim their ignorance is knowledge?]
Measurement Issues — Surface
The new Pause lengthens – now7 years 6 months
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Apr 3, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2022: +0.15
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 2, 2022
Changing Weather
Climate Change causes Frosts now: French Winegrowers lighting fires, candles to protect crops
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 6, 2022
A “Spike” Heatwave on Thursday
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 6, 2022
1886: Most Active US Hurricane Year
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 7, 2022
A Powerful Pacific Jet Stream, Heavy Precipitation of the Northwest, and Strong Trade Wind over Hawaii: It is All Connected.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 2, 2022
“The Japan Airlines flight from Tokyo to Seattle did in in less than 8 hours yesterday!
“But the atmosphere is interconnected and there are implications of this flow pattern all over the north Pacific.”
1871 Hurricanes
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 7, 2022
Changing Climate
The 100,000 Year Problem or lack thereof
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
Into the ice: A crab boat’s quest for snow crab in a Bering Sea upended by climate change
Special report: Ocean warming has put at risk the historic Alaska crab fishery. After a dismal summer survey, state biologists slashed this year’s harvest of snow crab by nearly 90% from 2021 levels.
By Hal Bernton, Seattle Times, Via Anchorage Daily News, Apr 3, 2022 [H/t Jim Buell]
“The 2018 Bering Sea ice cover was at the lowest point in 5,500 years, according to a study led by U.S. Geological Survey geologist Miriam Jones published in 2021 in Science Advances. In a feat of scientific sleuthing, Jones and her colleagues analyzed two oxygen isotopes contained in a peat bog core sample pulled that year from a remote island. They used this information to reconstruct the winter ice through the millennia.
“Jones said that the Bering Sea ice is sensitive to the release of carbon dioxide emissions by human activities, and that modeling indicates it could be lost entirely by 2070 or 2090, depending on how fast this pollution concentrates in the atmosphere.”
[SEPP Comment: According to the article, the crab fleet has shifted north because there are more crabs there. In brief, more sea ice leads to larger pools of cold water in the summer, which predators such as cod avoid. Less ice means more feasting on juvenile crab by cod. In the last couple of years sea ice has advanced in late winter, creating hazards for crabbers.]
Changing Seas
CDN by the sea: Monterey California
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Sea ice average for March is the metric used to compare to previous winters
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 5, 2022
1922: “Radical Change in Climatic Conditions In North”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Radical changes in the Arctic are not new!
Polar bear attempted to break down front door of house in Newfoundland with people inside
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 4, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Europe History Shows WARM Temperatures Led To Larger Grain Harvests, Lower Prices, Less Hunger
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 5, 2022
Link to paper: The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices
By Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, et al, Cliometrica, Mar 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Herschel’s 1801 hypothesis is questioned. “An anti-correlation between sunspot numbers and wheat prices was originally proposed by Herschel (1801): for the period 1646–1755, he identified five periods with low sunspot numbers and higher wheat prices and five periods with high sunspot numbers and lower wheat prices. This led Herschel (1801) to conclude that fewer sunspots resulted in poorer climate conditions for wheat and therefore triggered higher prices.”]
Ukraine War Exposes Folly Of Anti-GMO Protectionism
By Cameron English, ACSH, Mar 22, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The purchases of wheat from Russia and Ukraine by the United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP) are concerning.]
Lowering Standards
Long lost forgotten rain bombs — the BoM yells “unprecedented” while ignoring 120 years of history
If Climate Change was a real threat, the Bureau of Meteorology might even look at their own historic records.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 4, 2022
The Salt Lake Tribune Botches Medical and Climate Science in a Single Article
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Apr 4, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
NASA [GISS] researcher finding ways to turn down the heat in cities
By Jordan Hickey and Jessica Evans for GSFC News, Greenbelt MD (SPX) Mar 29, 2022
“The GISS team studied three sites in Chicago to see how green roofs affected surface temperatures around those buildings, and whether there was a difference between those sites and others nearby without green roofs.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
99 percent of people worldwide breathe air that doesn’t meet WHO standard
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 4, 2022
Press Release: Billions of people still breathe unhealthy air: new WHO data
Over 6000 cities now monitor air quality
By Staff, Press Release, Apr 4, 2022
The Report: Air quality database
By Staff, WHO, Apr 2022
[SEPP Comment: Humans will live for infinity if not for air pollution?]
Claim: Global team of scientists determine ‘fingerprint’ for how much heat, drought is too much for forests
Press Release, Via WUWT, Apr 5, 2022
Link to paper: Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests
By William M. Hammond, et al., Nature Communications, Apr 5, 2022
Abstract begins: “Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain.”
[SEPP Comment: Imagine what the earth’s forests “faced” as the last Ice Age glaciation declined 18,000 years ago!]
Claim: ‘Flash droughts’ coming on faster, global study shows
Press Release, University of Texas at Austin, Apr 1, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity
By Yamin Qing, et al. Nature Communications, Mar 2, 2022
Mark Svoboda, the director of the National Drought Mitigation Center and originator of the term “flash drought,” said the advancement in drought-detecting technology and modeling tools — such as those used in this study — has led to growing awareness of the influence and impact of flash droughts. He said the next big step is translating this knowledge into on-the-ground planning.
[SEPP Comment: Now a dry summer is a “flash drought?” Is this an April Fools joke?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Brits support an end to fracking ban
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Apr 6, 2022
From the archives – Pew Research Findings of what real scientists believed…
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone 2016, ICECAP, Apr 4, 2022
“To put it non-delicately, the claim that “almost all” scientists (i.e., 97%) believe that most changes in the climate system are caused by humans is… bunk.
“And most Americans already knew that.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Weaponized Claims of Disinformation
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Apr 8, 2022
Abundant cheap scarce expensive energy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
” Especially since the planned release is just 5% of American consumption and 1% of world consumption. Big enough to cause panic at the ataxic nature of policy development, but far too small to calm fears about the underlying problem.”
Can Australian Green Hydrogen Replace Russian Gas?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 5, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Lots of subsidies needed to do little?]
What Would Happen if They Threw a War and it Upset Europe’s Climate Plans?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 7, 2022
[SEPP Comment: NPR has no idea how Washington is derailing LNG exports.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
How the UK Combats Activism in the Classroom
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Apr 7, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
EU targets Russian coal in fresh package of sanctions
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Apr 5, 2022
Shell says pulling out of Russia has already cost it $5 billion
By Staff, AP, Apr 7, 2022
Coal Trains and Climate Protest: It’s Spring in New England
What connects anti-war demonstrations in Russia with climate activists in the US? An opposition to fossil capital.
By Wen Stephenson, The Nation, Mar 30, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Benefits And Costs Of The SEC’s Proposed Climate-Related Disclosures For Investors
By Ed Hirs, Forbes, Apr 4, 2022
“The most glaring concern is that the commission is unable to quantify the benefits for society, while conceding that the costs to companies in terms of compliance and more accurately measuring emissions, as well as to the SEC itself, will be in the millions.”
“Noticeably absent from the cost studies is any study broaching an estimate of what economy-wide, mandatory climate disclosures may reasonably cost in practice. Without that, the proposal is indefensible.”
[SEPP Comment: Another regulation of little value designed to assure employment of lawyers.]
Climate Police Occupy Wall Street
By Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Mar 24, 2022
Energy transition disruption might bite the SEC
By David Wojick, CFACT, Apr 2, 2022
Republican senators press Biden’s SEC to withdraw proposed climate disclosure rule
New rule would require publicly traded companies to produce reports on climate risks
By Anders Hagstrom, FOX Business, Apr 5, 2022
Questioning European Green
Dark Winter: Green EU States Activating Emergency Fuel Rationing Plans
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 3, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
If we want more renewables, we’re going to need a lot more mining first
By Sen. John Barrasso, Washington Examiner, Apr 4, 2022
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should teach us we can’t go back to paying our adversaries for resources we can produce here. The president needs to stop sleepwalking and wake up to the fact that our energy future needs to be made in the U.S.”
China Continues to Laugh at Western “Green Energy” Foolishness
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 2, 2022
Column: The federal climate plan – far out of touch with the world, with First Nations, with its regions, and the feds just don’t care
By Terry Etam, BOE Report (Canada), Apr 7, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
“So: I would evaluate Trudeau’s climate plan thusly: ‘Yes world, we hear you, you need more hydrocarbons, and we will help but only for a few months. Our stated goal is to discourage all investment in those fuels you are so desperately in need of. We aren’t interested in First Nations ideas if they run counter to our federal ideology, but don’t call that colonization because we don’t like it when you do that.’
Conflict in Ukraine Used to Push Green Agenda
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Apr 3, 2022
Video interview of Marc Morano
A plan to plan for a plan
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 6, 2022
“After much fancy talk the Canadian government finally unveiled a real plan to combat climate change. Or so they’d have you think and appear to think themselves. They and the press can’t get enough of the phrase ‘an ambitious and achievable roadmap’ which the PM tweeted and the Environment Minister obsequiously retweeted, and which suggests sober balance between high ideals and down-to-earth practicality.”
Democrats’ Approach to Rising Gas Prices Reveals Their Economic Illiteracy
By Kat Dwyer, Real Clear Energy, April 07, 2022
“Inflation is hitting voters where it hurts the most, forcing policymakers to pay attention—and revealing the economic illiteracy of the Left.”
The Political Games Continue
Democrat presses EPA administrator on climate rule pace: ‘How long do you think you have?’
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 6, 2022
“’The problem is that in an emergency, effort doesn’t count, results count,’ [Sen] Whitehouse shot back.
Oil Industry Executives Smack Down House Democrats in Congressional Hearing
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 6, 2022
Lawmakers press oil CEOs on high gas prices
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 6, 2022
“Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill last week that would tax the industry’s windfall profits,”
[SEPP Comment: Will they compensate big oil for losses from pulling investments in Russia?]
Labour Lose The Plot! [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: April 3, 2022, secondary headline: “Labour Says Prepare to Ration Gas”
Rep. Bill Johnson Asks Oil CEOs to Stop Apologizing and Be Proud of Producing Energy
By Myron Ebell, CEI, Apr 7, 2022
Litigation Issues
Major Wind Power Producer Sentenced in Wind Farm Eagle Deaths
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 7, 2022
“ESI also acknowledged ‘that at least 150 bald and golden eagles have died in total since 2012, across 50 of its 154 wind energy facilities,’ the DOJ said. At least 136 of those deaths ‘have been affirmatively determined to be attributable to the eagle being struck by a wind turbine blade,’ it said.”
Pennsylvania GOP leader promises to take RGGI to court
By Bridget Reed Morawski, Energy News Network, Apr 5, 2022
“New Jersey was once one of the best places to do business in the solar industry; ???”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
It’s not too late to stave off the climate crisis, U.N. report finds. Here’s how
By Lauren Sommer, NPR, Apr 4, 2022
“Changing the way humans work, live and eat in cities and buildings can have a major impact on reducing emissions, as much as 40 to 70 percent in some of those sectors, the report finds.”
Windfall Profits For ROC Generators Running At £1 Billion A Month
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 5, 2022
“Under the Renewable Obligation scheme, renewable generators are subsidised by ROC’s. Last year , the total subsidy was worth over £6 billion, all of which is added to our energy bills.
“On top of this subsidy, of course, generators also receive an income from electricity sales.
“Virtually all of our onshore wind generation, about 95%, is subsidised via Renewable Obligation Certificates, ROCs. Something like two thirds of offshore wind and half of solar output is also covered.
“BEIS have now published the generation data for all ROC schemes for last November, as per the table below” [Not shown}
[SEPP Comment: When it comes to costs and prices of wind and solar, rely on audited books, not what politicians and promoters say.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA proposes ban on common type of asbestos
By Rachel; Frazin. The Hill, Apr 5, 2022
“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Tuesday proposed a major step to limit exposure to asbestos, a carcinogen that kills 40,000 Americans each year.”
[SEPP Comment: With no physical evidence, the EPA assumes that the asbestos mined in North America (chrysotile) kills people. Other types of asbestos with totally different physicals properties (crocidolite) are harmful. The failure of the EPA to distinguish between these two different minerals is an example of EPA’s ignorance of science.]
EPA denies requests for biofuel blending exemptions
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 7, 2022
Government accused of being in denial of energy cost crisis
Net Zero Watch has branded the government’s energy security strategy an exercise in magical thinking and accused Boris Johnson of being in denial of the severity of the energy cost crisis.
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Apr 7, 2022
HOT AIR Boris’ energy strategy and obsession with wind power is a load of hot air – fracking and nuclear are what we need
By John Constable, The Sun, Apr 7, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Energy Issues – Australia
Guest post by Rafe Champion. Be a wind watcher and get savvy about wind droughts
By Rafe Champion, Jo Nova’s Blog, Apr 4, 2022
Link to: 20.2 Four Icebergs in the Path of Renewables Titanic
By Staff, Rite-On, Accessed Apr 8, 2022
“Supply-and-Demand Widget”
Supported by RenewEconomy, Accerssed Apr 8, 2022
Energy Issues — US
The Greatest Energy Mistake Ever Made
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, April 07, 2022
EIA explores effects of not building future interstate natural gas pipelines
By Stephen York et al., EIA, Apr 4, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Does not consider that wind and solar fail to generate reliable electricity.]
AG Expert: Wind Project Unneeded, Accounting Off
By Steve Haner, Bacons Rebellion, (VA) Apr 4, 2022
New Yorkers to get gas tax holiday
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Apr 8, 2022
“The gas tax suspension — equivalent to about 16 cents per gallon — will result in a total of about $585 million in relief for families and businesses across New York, according to [Gov.] Hochul.”
[SEPP Comment: Saving her job?]
Wolf administration climate rule survives veto override attempt in Pa. Legislature
By Laura Legere, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Apr 5, 2022
“The Wolf administration’s plan to begin requiring coal and natural gas power plants to pay for their greenhouse gas emissions cleared a major hurdle on Monday when the Senate fell short in its attempt to block the rule from taking effect.”
“The vote came on the same day as a major report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which found that ‘without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors,’ the international goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will be ‘beyond reach.’”
Washington’s Control of Energy
How Biden’s Huge Strategic Oil Release Could Backfire
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Apr 3, 2022
“According to the IEA, the shortfall could be 3 million barrels daily, to be felt this quarter. OPEC+ is not straying from its course. In some good news, at least, U.S. oil production rose last week for the first time in more than two months, by a modest 100,000 bpd.”
Biden boasts big gulp from Strategic Petroleum Reserve will lower gasoline prices
By Jeff Mordock and Ramsey Touchberry, The Washington Times, March 31, 2022
Stalled Progress on 5-Year Offshore Oil Leasing Program Threatens U.S. Energy Security
By Frank J. Macchiarola, Real Clear Energy, April 03, 2022
Invoking Defense Production Act Won’t Unleash Domestic Mining
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Mar 31, 2022
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Did You Know? US Oil & Gas Drilling Up 60% This Year
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 5, 2022
Exxon expects a profit boom thanks to high oil prices. But exiting Russia will come at a cost
By Matt Egan, CNN Business, Apr 4, 2022
Natural Gas for Africa: Ready, Set, Go!
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 7, 2022
Oil production in Iran reaches pre-sanction levels
By Staff, AFP, Daily Sabah, Apr 4, 2022
U.S. liquefied natural gas exports rise 16%, to new record
By Marcy de Luna, Reuters, Apr 1, 2022
Return of King Coal?
Homer City Coal Plant to Keep All Three Units Operating
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Apr 6, 2022
Govt’s New Energy Strategy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2022
Japan flips on nuclear — it tried to go Green without it but now wants to reopen closed plants
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 2, 2022
India To Build Nuclear Power Plants In “Fleet Mode” From 2023
In 2017, the[Department of Atomic Energy] for the first time, approved building 10 nuclear power reactors in one go with an aim to reduce costs and speed up construction time.
By Staff, Press Trust of India, Mar 27, 2022 [H/t Eduard Harinck]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Why Renewables Can’t Solve Europe’s Energy Crisis
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Apr 4, 2022
“It seems, then, that the reality of energy supply and consumption is reasserting itself as the EU finds itself in a gas pickle. If its plan involves so much more consumption of fossil fuels, then fossil fuels must be easier – and quicker – to come by and, just maybe, cheaper, than wind and solar. Otherwise, why pick them over renewables?”
It’d be fine if we could put electricity in shoe boxes. (Wind power is 98% unreliable)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 3, 2022
“The monthly average generation is about 30% of capacity. But the world doesn’t run on average electricity.”
Wind Turbines Out West Part II
By Kevin Kilty, WUWT, Apr 3, 2022
Biden administration announces $500M for energy efficiency in public schools
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 4, 2022
“Vice President Harris is set to announce the initiative Monday afternoon at Neville Thomas Elementary School in Washington, D.C., which installed solar panels in 2016 that now comprise 10 percent of its energy usage.”
[SEPP Comment: Forget night school?]
Data insight: The 2030 European wind gap
The EU is set for 360GW of wind power by 2030 – which is about 20% below what is required for it to meet its 2030 climate targets.
By Nick Ferris, Energy Monitor, Apr 6, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Assuming “pixie dust” storage works.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Royal Society–Role Of Hydrogen
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2022
“Projections of falling costs are not creditable, given that all the evidence suggests that offshore wind costs are much higher than assumed, and that solar panel costs are likely to head up and not down, as consequences of higher energy costs and raw material shortages.
“$3.00 to $6.60/kg equates to about £75.00 to £165.00/MWh. A large range of uncertainty, but even at the bottom end is five times the historic cost of natural gas.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Report On The Status Of The U.S. Energy Storage Project
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 7, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Menton explains why its foolish to believe grand announcements regarding storage of wind and solar electricity generation.]
How the war in Ukraine could speed up Europe’s climate plans
By Laura Benshoff, NPR, April 5, 2022
“The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for an immediate switch to renewable energy and says the world will need to capture carbon from the atmosphere to stay within 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.”
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the absurdity of UN IPCC thinking?]
SDG&E Adds More Energy Storage to CAISO Grid
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Mar 30, 2020
“San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) has completed a second energy storage project in its home city, a 20-MW/80-MWh facility located in Kearny Mesa.”
[SEPP Comment: No statement of how much this peanut storage costs!]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
More than half of all new UK cars to be electric by 2028 in bid to ditch petrol and diesel
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2022
“This whole business is an example of how we are all gradually losing our freedom of choice.
Other News that May Be of Interest
Vladimir Putin, You Have My Deepest Gratitude
By Michael Galak, Quadrant, Apr 9, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Just Stop Oil Protestors
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 2, 2022
“It is incredibly sad how paranoid ostensibly sensible people have been made by the climate charlatans.
“This poor woman totally loses the plot around 3 minutes in:”
Unvaxxed Australians can’t leave the country because of a WHO treaty: “We’re protecting the world”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 8, 2022
Tribulations of a Climate Activist: Farhana Yamin in Search and Dissent
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 8, 2022
What AI Can Do for Climate Change, and What Climate Change Can Do for AI
To tackle the climate crisis, artificial intelligence is becoming more open and democratic
By Wai Chee Dimock, Scientific American, April 5, 2022
Worried About Climate Change? Come Borrow Some Money!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 4, 2022
Zeppelin Back To Life? Start-Up ‘H2 Clipper’ Green Dirigible Boasts 170-Ton Payload, 7500 M3 Cargo Space
Green hydrogen powered dirigible could revolutionize long haul cargo transport worldwide.
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 2, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Green hydrogen will not burn or explode?]
ARTICLES
1. Climate-Change ‘Solutions’ That Are Worse Than the Problem
The political assault on fossil fuels comes at the expense of the poor, peace, and the environment.
By Jason De Sena Trennert, WSJ, April 6, 2022
TWTW Summary: The CEO of Strategas, an investment-strategy, economic, and policy research firm writes:
“If you can afford a Tesla, you probably find it hard to imagine that there are some 3.5 billion people on Earth who have no reasonably reliable access to electricity. Even less obvious may be the way rich countries’ pursuit of carbon neutrality at almost any cost limits economic opportunities for the world’s poor and poses serious geopolitical risks to the West.”
After Discussing other issues, the author continues:
“Anyone on an investment committee has likely spent untold amounts of time discussing ways to mitigate the impact of climate change, but they’ve likely never heard anyone state one simple and incontrovertible fact: The widespread exploration and production of fossil fuels that started in Titusville, Pa., not quite 170 years ago, has done more to benefit the lives of ordinary people than any other technological advance in history.
“Before fossil fuels, people relied on burning biomass, such as timber or manure, which was a far dirtier and much less efficient source of energy. Fossil fuels let people heat their homes in the winter, reducing the risk of death from exposure. Fossil-fuel-based fertilizers greatly increased crop yields, reducing starvation and malnutrition. Before the advent of the automobile, the ability for many people to venture far from their hometown was an unfathomable dream. Oil- and coal-burning transportation opened up access to education, commerce, professional opportunities, and vital services such as medicine. There has been, and remains, a strong correlation between the use of fossil fuels and life expectancy.
“Limiting the availability of fossil fuels in the name of climate activism would cut off many of the world’s poor from these benefits. Climate activists worry about a potential ‘existential crisis’ decades down the road, but poor people, really poor people, face an existential crisis every day. Even for those who aren’t among humanity’s most unfortunate, rising energy prices force serious economic trade-offs. Purposely eschewing America and Europe’s own natural resources increases costs to consumers, raises the cost of doing business, and limits economic growth. Viewed with this in mind, the debate over emissions seems like an upper-class problem.
“If Chinese belligerence and increasing authoritarianism over the past two years have taught us anything, it is that no amount of trade and international cooperation will instill what are generally considered to be Western values in other civilizations who have no real desire to adopt them. Trusting China to do anything other than what is directly in its own best interests, especially when it comes to the trade-offs between economic development and climate issues, would seem to be in direct conflict with history and common sense—and it poses serious geopolitical risks to the international democratic order. The war in Ukraine has emphasized how leaving European and American fossil fuels in the ground can put the West at the will of dictators, increasing the risk of atrocities, war or even the use of weapons of mass destruction. An easing of regulations on drilling in the U.S. and easier regulations on liquefied natural gas exports to flood the global market with oil and natural gas would do far more than any sanctions to stop Vladimir Putin’s barbarism.
“The climate-change solutions the West is pursuing also pose a danger to the environment. The lodestar of the environmental movement today appears to be electric vehicles. One would be hard-pressed to find a product more dependent on resources from extractive materials. An electric car requires almost four times as much copper as an automobile powered by an internal combustion engine. The widely accepted goal of having 30% of the world’s vehicle sales be electric by 2030 would require enormous investments in mining industries that are decidedly not eco-friendly.
“And whatever emission cuts America and Europe manage to make by forcing electric vehicles and other inefficient technology on consumers will be negated by emissions from other nations. Regimes like Russia and China won’t put aside their geopolitical ambitions for climate activism; developing countries like India won’t sacrifice economic development and their peoples’ well-being in the hope it’ll slow global warming.
“Sadly, environmentalism has grown into a secular religion in which reasonable debate is regarded as heresy. But if politicians and voters can approach climate change with an open mind, they’ll see that economic growth is likely to solve the issue without heavy-handed government intervention. History has shown that free markets produce incredible leaps in human ingenuity. The greater access the world has to all sorts of energy sources, the faster humanity will discover new technologies that are more environmentally friendly. Rationing fossil fuels would only retard the process of decreasing carbon emissions and cost lives in the process.”
Once again we have another ridiculous claim by the IPCC and it will go round the world in flash—– Again. Time to do something different.
Clearly this site and all the others are simply not getting the message out. Go back and read the articles and posts from over a decade ago, it’s all going round in circles and no one is listening. It’s a delusional bubble, some people have literally been posting here for 15 years.
The IPCC and Alarmists are running rings everyone because their message cuts through.. ‘”were all going to die” is simple to understand to your average 20 something to the point where they are convinced to glue their hands to the road.
Christopher Monckton recent attempt to explain his thesis, How Climatologists Forgot the Sun Was Shining: Your Questions Answered. Whilst admirable is symptomatic of the problem, no one who matters ( the great unwashed) understand it. Someone smart once said, If you can’t explain it to a 6-year-old, you don’t understand it yourself,” Time to do something different
Here is an idea I have been mulling over for a while — the smart folk here design an experimental challenge open to all to prove the factual basis for the C02 climate change theory.
The kicker is it needs to be backed by a stupid amount of money — $1 million at least, but the bigger the prize the bigger the cut through. Even the most ardent activist glued to the road might start questioning why none of the scientists he believes in have not bothered to collect the $millions
The point of the prize is also to make it too big for mainstream media to ignore – it would make a great publicity stunt to launch it the week before Cop27. It would put alarmist on the back foot, who would have to start making excuses why they can’t prove ( even for a million dollars) their c02 theory. Slogans like we’re going to die won’t work, they will have to try and explain the science, which is complicated.
This might be fanciful, but unless something is done to shake up the message, then no number of posts here will ever cut through with the people that matter –the mainstream media, the noisy activists class and the people on Reddit posting their anxiety issues about climate change.
This site is in touch with the who’s who in this field and a gofund me style campaign coordinated with all the other sites might make it feasible.
But clearly the largest driver of climate is now the new additional factor of human produced CO2… and the planet is warming and there are clearly instances of more climate related severe adverse weather impacts.
OK we have our first contestant., I am sure you will have no problem proving that. You do know that saying something over and over doesn’t make it true.
First you have 30 year weather, only at the end you can talk about climate, not vice versa.
Climate related weather ?? What’s that ?
Severe weather is and was never climate.
CO2 drives plants to grow, that’s all.
Griff and his fear of the magic molecule. Where oh where is the actual evidence (not models) that the magic molecule drives temperature?
Someone smart once said, If you can’t explain it to a 6-year-old, you don’t understand it yourself,” Time to do something different
Here is an idea I have been mulling over for a while ….
____________________________________________________________
Here’s what you’re up against:
Covering Climate Now and their Best Practices page.
But yes, lots of people have been posting here for over a decade and the audience is very very very small compared to the audience reached by ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NPR, PBS, The New York Time, Washington Post, Scientific American, National Geographic, …. it’s a long list.
When I bring the topic up with my favorite liberal I hear, about how awful FOX news is.
What’s needed is a way to get the word out, and in today’s cancel culture that’s difficult. The million dollar prize would be ignored or “debunked”.
It would take money, lots of money to get the word out. The Harry and Louise ad campaign was successful against the 1993 Clinton Health plan. Wikipedia says that cost up to $20 Million.
People really do need to realize that the UK is closing its gas wells and plugging them with concrete LINK and that similar actions will begin to occur in their communities.
The “Climate Gate” emails should have ended the whole thing and Dr. Peter Gleick should have been escorted out of the building. Didn’t happen.
Steve: You might be a bit pessimistic here. By far the most viewed cable news network is FOX – Carlson, Hannity and The Five getting larger audiences than the others combined. Travis & Sexton get almost 10 million listeners per day and conservatives dominate local talk radio everywhere. These are mainstream outlets and they seem to universally pan the climate alarmist views. Yes, the extremist progressives who control on-line content suppress dissent and push the alarmist narrative, but there are a lot of folks who know it’s all BS.
When I argue with a believer we most always reach an impasse – usually when they say 97% scientists… I suggest that they take some time and check out a few sites like WUWT, Roy Spencer, Climate Etc. and maybe we can talk again some time. Sadly few seem to have enough interest to follow up.
As predicted for decades the CliSciFi scam is now costing people real money. We are at the beginning of the end. In the U.S. the Leftists will be voted out of their positions of power over the next few election cycles.
Agree what we are up against is tough, probably because the AGW have controlled the narrative for so long. Maybe a million dollars is not enough to cut through, but unless climate realists come with a simple Message that cuts through they are going to keep going down this socialist agenda.
It will not matter what I call real scientists say , the IPCC will ignore it.
Only when our politicians realise that the IPCC has its own political Agenda, & cease to regard it as a truthfull organisation, will we see sensible decisions being made.
But at present politicians think that there are votes to be gained by appearing to be Green.
Perhaps we should thank Mr Putin for helping to expose the whole gigantic fraud.
Michael VK5ELL
Nature 16th March 2022 published a study entitled ‘New land-use-change emissions indicate a declining CO2 airborne fraction’
Their introduction ends with
“This suggests that the combined land-ocean sink has been able to grow at least as fast as anthropogenic emissions”
The rest is paywalled unfortunately.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04376-4
A major snowstorm in the northwestern US.
Snow in Portland Oregon, April, 11, 2022.
First time measurable snow in Portland in April in 82 years of record keeping.
And no anecdotal reports, so far, of April snow before that.
Worth a post?
“There is the potential for this storm to bring record snowfall for the month of April to cities such as Bismarck and Grand Forks, North Dakota. A record-setting, late-season snowstorm in 1966 unloaded up to 2 feet of snow to these areas, and similar totals are expected from this week’s storm, making it likely this will rank as “one of the worst storms in recent history,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.”
Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) has offered yet another excellent presentation and reality based info. When the inmates finally lose control of the asylum reality will return and hopefully reasonable politics.
With regards to the leading photo …. Charles maintains the high ground!!!! I think he’s interested in more than just awesome photos.
Let’s not forget that this is a blatant lie/fabrication attempt at scaremongering.
I stopped reading after the statement that this issue would be about mitigating climate change. Let me red pill you: The world is run by sociopaths that have no desire to tell the truth about or mitigate CO2 so-called anthropomorphic climate change. Just a few oil tankers full of iron sulfate poured into the oceans in the correct places and pace would feed millions of hungry people with an ocean bounty and stabilize the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. I consider it a guilty pleasure to visit this web site because it could all become irrelevant by the decision of a few governments to spend <$500M over a decade seeding the ocean with iron. F them all including those who are using this to gain control over and squash the advance of humanity with affordable fossil fuels, those profiting from this fake crisis, and those who are unwilling to spend just a few minutes getting an understanding of the situation.
Perhaps the only way to break through to the brainwashed is to let them actually live in the world they say they want. One winter without heat might convince some of their folly. The balance will never change their minds. My bet, they still believe cloth masks work to protect against respiratory viruses.