 (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
The NFL has seen back-to-back historic rookie seasons from wide receivers. In 2020, we saw Vikings’ first-round pick Justin Jefferson break the record for most receiving yards by a rookie. Many fans thought this was an outlier, but in 2021, Bengals’ first-round pick Ja’Marr Chase broke Jefferson’s record. These are not outlier years, and this trend is expected to continue in 2022 with this rookie receiver class.
In 2020, Jefferson broke out relatively late in the season and still finished as the WR6. Chase finished 2021 as the WR3. So which rookie should you draft this year? Here are 3 candidates that could finish as a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy football this year:
- Chris Olave – The Saints’ first-round draft pick out of Ohio State checks all the boxes for a breakout season. Olave specializes in the deep ball which helped him break the record for most touchdown receptions in Ohio State’s history. This is going to continue in the NFL. With Jameis Winston playing quarterback, it fits exactly what Olave requires for success. We have seen Winston successfully throw the deep ball over his career, leading Mike Evans, his previous deep threat in Tampa Bay, to over 17 yards per catch in both 2018 and 2019, along with 11 yards per target in 2018. During Winston’s limited time before injury in 2021, he utilized the only possible deep threat in New Orleans shallow receiving room, Marquez Calloway. It’s safe to say Olave’s upside in 2022 is much greater than Calloway’s in 2021. Granted, in 2022, it’s a much more crowded receiver room in New Orleans with Michael Thomas returning and the addition of Jarvis Landry. However, the Saints traded up to get Olave, and they definitely didn’t trade up for him to get a lack of targets. They expect him to make an immediate impact on the field in year one. Additionally, Michael Thomas has been on and off the field for the last 2 years with an ankle injury, and nobody, including the Saints, knows what Thomas will look like in 2022 if he can play. Olave’s speed will make him Jameis Winston’s favorite target and give him the ability to produce in year one.
- Christian Watson – After too many years of Packer fans begging GM Brian Gutekunst to get Aaron Rodgers another weapon, the Packers delivered… kind of. The team drafted Christian Watson in the second round of the draft but ended up trading Davante Adams. I wouldn’t necessarily call it improvement, but it leaves Watson with an opportunity to be in an offense run by Aaron Rodgers, who has won back-to-back MVPs and doesn’t show any sign of slowing down. Rodgers targeted Davante Adams 169 times in 2021! Watson might not see that level of workload, but it’s certainly feasible that he gets well over 100 targets as a rookie. Rodgers’ track record with rookie receivers isn’t great, with Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams both having subpar rookie seasons; however, this will change with Christian Watson. Now that Green Bay finally drafted Aaron Rodgers another receiver, Rodgers is going to want to stick it to the Packers and show what he could have done if they granted his wishes in previous years. Watson’s only competition in that room is Allen Lazard, and there’s no doubt that there’s enough passes to be given to everyone. Watson’s speed and big body allows him to catch contested passes. Rodgers loves to throw the ball deep, and Watson best allows Rodgers to do that. Rodgers might prefer Lazard to start the season, but Watson will win that WR1 role on the team relatively quickly.Â
- Treylon Burks – The Titans had arguably the biggest move of the draft, trading the 25-year-old A.J. Brown to the Eagles after both sides couldn’t agree on a contract extension. His replacement? Treylon Burks, the 6’2, 225 lb receiver out of Arkansas. Burks is excellent after the catch and will be used on slant routes and screen passes for Ryan Tannehill. When Derrick Henry isn’t plowing over defenders, Burks will be the easiest target for Ryan Tannehill to throw to. In 2021, A.J Brown had 105 targets in just 13 games. These targets will go to Burks, with the possibility of even more coming his way. Out of play action, Tannehill’s less than impressive arm strength will lead to him looking for the easy pass, and Burks will be open often. Pair this with Burks’ post catch ability, and he is going to be a name to look out for in his rookie season.Â
So why draft a rookie receiver? The value you’re getting on any of these guys is worth the pick. Between the 3 players listed above, all of them have a consensus ADP of at least 95. This is a steal for essentially each of these teams’ WR1. You’re getting a player with extremely high upside at an incredibly discounted price. It’s important to hit on your early draft picks in fantasy football, but winners are made in the late rounds. The bottom
COLUMBUS, OHIO – NOVEMBER 20: Chris Olave #2 of the Ohio State Buckeyes catches a pass for a touchdown during the first half of a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Ohio Stadium on November 20, 2021 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
line: don’t miss out on these receivers.
