JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
I read somewhere that over 6000 products are made from oil. Whether that number is true or not doesn’t matter as clearly many items rely on a vibrant petro chemicals industry including Clothes, Medicine and cosmetics.
Does anyone know what percentage of oil goes to this ‘other’ sector as distinct to that which is used for vehicles or burnt in a boiler?
Whether we think it causes harm or not, oil that is burnt in vehicles or for heating etc emits CO2. However, does anyone know whether the ‘other’ sector -such as medicines, clothes etc-are processed in such a way that CO2 is emitted?
In other words does the output from the oil industry invariably emit CO2 at some point?
We then get on to a separate issue for another day-what happens to all these other industries should oil be banned? Shame someone can’t make a petro chemical equivalent to ‘Its a Wonderful life” showing what the world would look like without the benefits of the oil industry
70
If only it were a technical question.
‘Carbon’ is cultural proxy for lust, hate, greed and avarice.
An replacement comprehensive sin for when the antiquated sins have been transformed into virtues.
Even if they were able to ‘Stop Oil’, they would come up with something else.
It’s about creating a new cultural control system when the previous system is failing.
Proxy.
It’s the reason none of them are calculating the ‘Carbon Footprint’ of ammunition production.
We must focus on chicken and fertilizer.
140
16% to 20% of oil goes into the petrochemical industry.
https://cen.acs.org/business/petrochemicals/future-oil-chemicals-fuels/97/i8
A couple of listings of products made from oil:
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/11/f68/Products%20Made%20From%20Oil%20and%20Natural%20Gas%20Infographic.pdf
https://texoilcompany.dk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/petro-products.pdf
70
I wonder if you could get double value out of plastics by high temperature incineration to generate electricity
30
Thanks for the links
10
Ron Stein has done a lot on this issue and that is his number. You can likely google him for more. He says half of US refinery output is used for petrochemical feedstock but we also make a lot with gas.
There is nothing in net zero about curtailing petrochemicals, so the issue may not be real. Note that net zero allows for some CO2 emissions, hence the net.
61
Interested to know what a “product” is. I bet you could find 6000 different products containing plastic or synthetic fibres in a Kmart.
61
Don’t forget fertilizers. And pesticides, I imagine.
I just sat in on a conference call where the engineers admitted frankly that Electric Vehicles required 5X more of certain expensive minerals and metals than conventional vehicles, and claimed that this was a golden opportunity for more business. Appallingly, the engineers may be right, as long as the subsidies keep flowing.
I expect that sooner or later the laws of economics will apply again. But what a mess we will have to be in before we realize that our hands have been forced.
120
Its based on a false premise, CO2 does not cause global warming, so eventually the system should collapse once subsidies are withdrawn.
70
In The Australian, a list of the 100 most significant people in the Green environment. “Guilt-free cling wrap, bricks made of pollution and giant emitters cleaning up their act: it’s our annual Green Power List 2023. ”
A few Australian billionaires, the funder of the virtue signalling Teals. Lots of University types on the Green wagon. Endless other opportunists, virtue signallers and bit players even a Shell Oil director. Motivation? And then you get the Green politicians who want power at any cost to you. And the gnomes of Canberra want to centralize electrical power and all power in their hands, literally ending State power.
How many care that Professor Ian Plimer for the last 14 years has called it openly “the biggest scientific fraud in history” which it obviously is.
But Green is making people rich and important, like James Hansen and Michael Mann and Tim Flannery (who whinges that he is not rich) and Al Gore and tens of thousands of opportunists especially at Universities making a great living from something they know is wrong. Every single prediction of a thousand predictions has been proven wrong over 35 years and yet we are down the path of shutting down our power grid, stopping coal, oil and gas while being told it will be cheaper and better. And everyone knows it is a complete lie. Where is our cheap electricity?
So why is it continuing? Like BLM and AntiFA and Trans are better people than anyone else and Roald Dahl is offensive along with JK Rowling? 1984 was a novel, not a handbook.
And why does every commentator instantly run with all the latest fashions from overseas as if it was always their life’s fundamental purpose, to apologize and ban fertilizer. And soon we will really be voting to insert race into our non racist Constitution. To end racism. Why does nothing make sense and does our PM Albanese really believe it so passionately as his mission? Or anyone outside the ABC?
And why don’t the CSIRO and BOM and every scientist stand behind Professor Plimer? How many stood behind Professor Peter Ridd when he told the truth?
When did Australia’s scientists and company directors stop being professional sceptics and become true believers in the very lastest Leftist political fashion? Why was there a disastrous BLM march in the middle of the pandemic in a country created long after slavery was illegal and while people were locked in their houses under State curfew?
And are the managers of our compulsory Superannuation funds and the Taxation department under Chalmers really going woke with our money not theirs, banning coal, oil and gas and manufacturing and cows? Western society is becoming a Bizarro world of political fashion. And why are Truss and Bojo demanding the UK send jet fighters to Ukraine and the Estonians talking of taking the tanks all the way to Moscow? Do people really think Biden and Pelosi’s attempts to start WWIII are a good idea?
And what happened to Rational Science, evidence based decisions making even rational decision making? How can people still tell us Wind and solar are cheaper when everyone knows it is not true? And pumping water uphill is a great idea. And we have to save the Great Barrier Reef and stop mining coal.
It’s like being in a cattle car off to a camp, wondering how it came to this and wondering what happens next. And our political leaders telling us it will be fine.
280
More articles in the Australian on banking in a flood of Green news.
“It’s been a long, slow road but the major banks are now in the driver’s seat in the shift to net-zero.
It’s a break from their past when they were more comfortable lending to coal miners or big oil,
but they are now becoming finance’s new renewable warriors.
and another
The way National Australia Bank chairman Philip Chronican sees it, banks had to reset the conversation.
For years pressure had been building on the big four banks around their so-called dirty loans. With billions of dollars in exposure to carbon-intensive projects such as coal mining or oil and gas, banks were being painted as the ones really fuelling the heavy polluters.
90
Hi TdeF,
An interesting post from David Archibald circa 2020
pretty much says that only some deep pain is going to wake people up to all this stupidity. I tend to agree.
60
And in the big Green players, probably behind the paywall I notice the former Chief Scientist of Australia, Ian Chubb. Now “Chairman, Panel For Independent Review of Australian Carbon Credit Units”. Gosh there’s a lot of money in the Green business. A lot more than in real science. Who cares if it is “the greatest scientific fraud in history”?
So if you grow trees, CO2 goes down? Good thing CO2 is not in equilibrium. And we can turn farmland into locked up forests and cash in as in the hundreds of tree farms in the UK, land and trees which can never be used for anything. We can always import our food with the money we make from selling coal.
150
Defenestrated popular PM Tony Abbott had the same idea, using the young unemployed to literally green Australia for free. It was the first thing stopped by Turnbull’s Greens. Stupid idea. Better to sell tree farms to investors.
150
The green army was a brilliant idea, carrying on the landcare tradition, it had romantic appeal.
History won’t be kind to Turnbull, particularly on the matter of the BoM audit.
51
Wow, packed so much into that and the last paragraph has an eerie ring of warning to it that we must acknowledge.
50
New news! I didn’t know I should feel guilty about using cling wrap. I will definitely put it on my hand wringing list.
30
Its just a perfectly normal, typical, empire collapse… This is what happens when a culture no longer needs to strive.
40
I have a question for those that follow wind farm output.
Data shows that their average capacity is around 30% or a bit less. Does anyone have any data on how many days per year they produce zero or say less than 1%
It would just be a great reply to those that sprout “look such and such a place, ran on unreliables for 100% (forgetting to mention its at 4:00am for 5 mins).
Thanks
40
See the long term graph here:
https://joannenova.com.au/2022/04/wind-power-is-98-unreliable-itd-be-fine-if-we-could-put-electricity-in-shoe-boxes/
“Australia now has nearly 10GW of wind power installed on the National Electricity Grid, but look at the monthly minimums — the guaranteed power we can rely on. The good news is that it’s increased by 10% over this time last year. The bad news is that it was only 216MW.”
If you look at Anero.id you can see monthly graphs. It used to be that about twice a month there would be a lull in Australia down to about 3% capacity.
TonyfromOZ would know. Eg https://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/wind-power-failure-100-times-a-year-we-get-a-500mw-outage/
This is not exactly the question you seek, but I know he would have more…
110
If you had an employee who only worked randomly, 30% of the time, would you continue?
If your car only ran 30% of the time, would you buy another?
If your electricity was only available 30% of the time, would you buy more windmills to fill the gap? And consider that they always fail at the same time?
And if you bought a battery for $100Million which only lasted 3 minutes, would you think you had a great solution?
So what’s wrong with spending
$2Billion$12 Billion to pump water back uphill? You know it makes sense.Or 3 giant desalination plants which have never been used for the drought which would never end? (Many tens of billions and still paying)
130
What I find really odd about solar is that while wind is unpredictable, even ancient humans understood the sun was only available for half the day. And the solution is not more solar panels.
100
And in a land of droughts and flooding rains we have a real problem with hydro as the water is needed for farming, as Tasmania found out.
Our major export and most profitable export is coal and we are seriously defunding and banning coal? I can only assume that at the highest levels of government including the CSIRO, BOM and the universities like James Cook we have been captured by a foreign power and no one speaks out. Speaking truth to power will get you fired and defenestrated in Australia.
Perhaps we could have a skeptic for Chief Scientist, someone who works with facts not for politicians?
120
Solar averages 880 GWh/week in summer, but only 400 GWh/week in winter.
And then daily it might deliver 7.5 GW at 8.30am, 12.7 GW at midday, and 3.3 GW at 6pm.
So something else has to be available on demand to keep the lights on
30
Solar is worse than all the averages promoted.
We are all electric with some bottled gas (basically replaced with a wood heater while still allowed) Despite being in suburbia we are in one of the last old market garden areas, that the greens cannot let go off despite it being proven many times that it is unviable due to small acreage.
for the first time solar could be paid off in 5 years due to the cost of electricity so we bit the bullet and installed it last September.
Points to note: the off peak hot water bypassed the solar monitoring system, so that was a rude shock when usage was higher than we saw. bypassing the off peak with a timer solved that one.
Solar is only optimum on cloudless mild days. other than that our solar looks more like Bart Simpsons hairdo and planning around that is a constant job to ensure we maximise the solar as feed in tariffs of 5 cents is pretty crap.
There are many days off pretty useless solar due to clouds ie not enough to run a kettle.
60
But at least Solar is reasonably predictable, unlike wind where you never know when it is simply going to fade away for a while. It’s interesting the the Sun Cable project never planned to use wind, only solar.
00
“And if you bought a battery for $100Million which only lasted 3 minutes, would you think you had a great solution?”
Grid batteries aren’t about bulk supply. Been discussed here frequently.
Agree with the point generally. The decision makers haven’t tasted full failure yet though, and even then they will go through extreme mental gymnastics to avoid the fluorescent elephant in the room.
30
Thank you Jo
10
The two images linked below highlight the variablity of Wind+Solar output for calendar year 2022 at the most important times of day for the SE Australian grid – the AM and PM peak usage periods. The data was extracted from the Aneroid Energy website, and is a snapshot from the peak usage times for the period.
The images present the data as +/- variation from the 2022 mean S+W generation value, which for the AM period was 3.6 GW, and the PM period 3.1 GW. It includes wind + commercial solar (not rooftop), but it essentially represents wind, as solar is rarely up and running at these times of day. I would have gladly included battery backup for grid scale wind and solar but this doesn’t exist yet. Wind nameplate capacity is about 10.2 GW, and commercial solar around 8.8 GW for a total nameplate of 19 GW. This results in an AM capacity factor of 19%, and PM capacity factor of 16% for average wind + solar contribution to peak power generation. But note the variability on the following linked images:
AM wind+solar 2022
PM wind+solar 2022
It is the ultimate definition of variable output at the times of day when firm power is essential.
10
I have these graphs of German wind farm output in 2015/16
I doubt they would have changed significantly or be very different in Australia.
https://i.ibb.co/cLPXV0h/German-Onshore-Wind-2015-2016.jpg
11
ps.. they were based on 5 minute data.
21
Tony’s/Anton’s figures, supplied here on 16 June 2022, were: For 800 days, there were 265 occasions when there was a significant loss of wind power. Total nameplate at that time was 9854 MW, and these losses were from 500 Watts down to 3700 Watts.
I think a more reasonable measurement would be to record how many times the total wind output drops to 10% of total nameplate in a given period.
00
As a further comment, from Mike0 in The Australian a few days ago: Over 12 months, there was a period of 42 hours below 8%, 20 hours below 5.5%, 18 hours at 6%, 15 hours below 8%, and so on.
Mike also reported here on 9 August 2022, where the wind dropped to less than 1GW for 48 hours.
It would be great if we could somehow obtain Mike’s data for the last 12 months.
20
It’s now time for Queensland coal producers to start reducing production of coal for exports.
Show governments exactly how reliant they are on coal revenues. When royalties revenue starts to dry up how will the Qld government fund the state, the 2032 Olympics, the infrastructure for the burgeoning Queensland population.
The coal producers could bring all governments to heel, to their senses not to mention sanity & relief for the Australian people. It would probably require about 6 / 12 months of disciplined work by coal, oil, gas & financial business to put the whole country back on track. If nothing is done all those enterprises will suffer along in a dying economy anyway!
100
That’s exactly what I was thinking, Graham. Maybe Clive should do this right before the next state election.
30
That’s part of the problem Petros.
We’re always waiting. DO IT NOW for quick effect
Waiting for an election just shows up those that are looking for short term benefits
Do it now & those with the power to do something need to form alliances, support each other, stop talking & act! Before it’s too late!
30
Right on cue the Teals jack up about Labor touching their superannuation money. Don’t you ever touch a Chardonnay Socialist’s money.
100
So. You are with Labor on this?
14
I would LUV to see Labor hi-jack all the Chardonnay Socialist Teal superannuation.. and use it on things that are a total waste.
… thus making it totally worthless.
Its what they deserve. 🙂
51
wont just be theirs though will it
70
And the same disconnect in America
Kamala Harris claims Biden has “reduced heating and electricity bills so folks have more money in their pocket.”
“What is she talking about? Electricity is up 11.9%, fuel oil is up 27.7%, and natural gas is up 26.7% over last year.”
Why are politicians saying the opposite of what people know to be true and still people vote for them?
–
–
In Australia in 2007 Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said “Sorry” to aborigines on behalf of all Australians, half of whom were born overseas. What good did that do?
Not to be outdone, in 2023 Anthony Albanese plans to change the Australian Constitution to include a special race in his ‘Voice’ without saying how it will work or who will run it or what good it will do or how.
What is actually being done for aborigines? Nothing. In fact anything which was good has been dismantled in the blind quest for equity.
But the Left are still very upset because they believe that the entire of Australia should be legally handed over and 26 Million people should pay rent to an aboriginal government yet to be defined.
Social science and real science are being destroyed by true believers in fact free Post Modernism or Cultural Marxism.
150
Our respect, love, for truth has been lost with our respect, love, for God.
100
I believe that’s not true. There has been a takeover at the very top of government and business and even Scientific organizations like NOAA, NASA even the American Institute of Physics! Organizations are most vulnerable at the very top, the committees.
So the people are openly being told the opposite of what’s true, as with Kamala Harris who just told Americans that power bills had dropped so they have more cash in their pockets. It’s one explanation that she is an idiot, but if that is not true, what is the real explanation?
90
The real explanation is that she, and those at the top, have no fear of telling lies. They will not be be brought to account. They don’t care.
There is a God and they will be brought to account but meanwhile we have to live in this world.
70
“There is a God ” Sadly, I doubt it.. Not in the sense that religions talk about anyway.
“they will be brought to account” I doubt it, but believing in a God gives people relief from the horror of realising they will never be bought to account. We are being screwed, all our life, and the people doing it WILL get away with it!
20
In the early 1990s I headed up some organisations, for example 6 years of flying Syd or Melb to Darwin nearly every month as VP or Pres of the NT Chamber of Mines & Energy. There was absolutely no inclination to be involved with regulatory capture. We strongly resisted attacks on the free market. At no stage can I recall we told fibs, minor or major, we spent time calling out the fibs of others.
Since then I have been most disappointed by the lack of fight in other industry sectors and sadly, in some parts of mining. BHP has some recent public policy statements that remind me of corporate suicide. It is almost like the old tale of some chemical in the drinking water has altered the psyche of people who should know better.
BTW, we are just home from a primary school assembly where our grandson aged 12 was awarded Principal’s Choice
from the whole school of several hundred. There was a lot of talk about character and ethics and then sustainability and recognition of land, with our National Anthem sung well after an introductory minute of stick clicking jumble. I was looking for positives, but noted no mention of mathematics, physics, chemistry, science. As well, every female teacher I could recognise (distinct from parents) was badly overweight whereas few pupils were – yet. There is still merit in leading by example.
Geoff S
20
Geoff, the problem is — at the core — “free money”. Too much money in easy loans at low interest rates have made financial houses, asset managers, and conglomerate multinationals the rulers. This feeds that corruption.
There are almost no coal mines or coal power plants that are not owned in conglomerate easy money cabals. The “bosses” and boards are looking at generating financial gains in other parts of their portfolio by deliberately crippling the coal sector.
20
They Hid Vaccine Deaths Because “Disclosure Could Undermine Public Confidence.”—The FLCCC News Capsule for February 19, 2023
https://flccc.substack.com/p/they-hid-vaccine-deaths-because-disclosure
Can you imagine the following?
In this scenario, it has been discovered that a country’s official drug regulation agency concealed COVID vaccine deaths from its citizens in order to blind the masses to the life-threatening dangers posed by the injections. Why? So people would still line up willingly to receive the shots after being told by authorities they were safe and effective.
“Cardiac arrest? Young people having heart attacks? Tremors? Renal impairment? Blood clots? Nope! Nothing to see here! Hey kids, step up. Who’s next?”
Oh, wait. Right. You’ve heard this before…so yes, you CAN imagine it.
But you’ll want to hear this story anyway.
In this particular instance, we are referring to Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) which appears to have concealed numerous vaccine-induced fatalities from its citizenry. The discovery came from documents obtained under a Freedom of Information (FOI) request made by Dr. Melissa McCann. After noticing a much higher than normal number of patients coming through her clinic experiencing adverse events from the shots, Dr. McCann lodged the FOI request. What she found were multiple adverse events reports that the TGA deemed to be linked to COVID vaccination—but had NOT been reported in the TGA’s regular COVID Vaccine Safety Reports. The reported deaths—including a 7-year-old and a 9-year-old—are listed in the Database of Adverse Event Notifications (DAEN), but the causality assessment is NOT visible to the public…
170
Is the then head of the TGA going to be held to account now that he has retired at the age of 63?Or is there something else going on behind the scenes.
80
Hard to imagine a parent who lost a child to the JabJab wanting the information supressed for”The greater good”- especially as the JabJab was NEVER EFFECTIVE. All we have witnessed for the last 2 years is snake oil spruiking. In the old days the Vendor would have been run out of town by now. Kinda makes you wonder why the “Kontrol group” got mad at the “Control group”.
Simple logic, if the JabJab has been a success where are all the stats showing reducing mortality and rainbows and unicorns? Right- coz things are worse- much worse!
40
The CDN climate sceptic channel on Youtube is doing a series of short videos featuring accelerated sea level change or lack thereof. The visit various places with long sea level records to make the point in a light hearted way, a bit like the Tony Heller shorts.
Here is the Sydney/Fort Denison edition https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCELmJ5VGpY
30
Oh My Goldstein – climate change [sic] has turned me into a grumpy old man 😡
Thousands are without power, thousands without homes, roads and bridges are washed-out, sewage is being pumped into the sea, there’s rain / drought / snow, all Cook Strait ferries have broken down or are out of service, we have ONE coal power plant and NO oil refinery remaining, a NZ-wide State of Emergency has been extended, there is 100% total disinfo from media… yet Bourla’s 5th jab-jab is going to be available from April Fool’s Day.
World War Twilight Zone is indeed an eerie place… thar be monsters here.
150
It can get worse suddenly.
In the UK Boris Johnson and Liz Truss in Winston Churchill mode like Zelansky are urging PM Sunak to order fighter aircraft to Ukraine along with the 300 German tanks. Finland is joining Nato, Ukraine wants to join the EU/NATO and The Estonians (population 1.3million) are urging an attack all the way to Moscow. Boris Churchill promises Britain the Russians will not retaliate with nuclear missiles. What could go wrong with that?
In fact the major threats to the people of Europe are the EU, UN and NATO and their own governments. And likely China is orchestrating the whole thing, watching and waiting. Why fight a war when soon your enemies will only have windmills, Chinese windmills and no munitions. Or at least what is left of the rest of the world.
120
“Boris Churchill promises Britain the Russians will not retaliate with nuclear missiles.”
Yeah riight… like he’s never told a lie before!
Lets see what Putin says about it- Oh, he says Russia will use all means at its disposal if it feels that its existence is threatened. No longer any mention of enemies using nukes against Russia, just any ‘existential threat’.
I saw an article talking about Australia being the safest place in a nuclear war, so it is definitely being talked about and considered. A shame the writer hadn’t read ‘On the Beach’. The Yanks are running scenarios to take a stab at how many people would survive, so they think it is in the future.
20
Where is Jabcinda being agisted? NZ was once considered a place to “Bug Out” to at the end of the world- seems we need another alternative!
40
Follow up on the New York Times article on masks being a covid failure –
“New York Times readers confront the manifest failure of masks to do anything, cope and seethe
What remains of Team Mask is a bunch of deeply irrational people, and there is no reasoning with them.”
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/new-york-times-readers-confront-the
30
That via
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2023/02/23/mask-formation-psychosis-13/
Only 3 comments as yet
20
More “Safe and Effective®”
““After the first dose, we were surprised to find the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine elicits an unexpected memorylike response in the immune system, recognizing the vaccine as if it’s something it’s seen before,” says Professor Lynn, from the College of Medicine and Public Health at Flinders University.
“This response is targeted against the adenovirus vector in the vaccine, not the Spike protein and the intensity of this response correlates with the expression of proteins that act as a pre-cursor to thrombosis, or blood clotting.”
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2023-02-reveals-covid-vaccine-blood-clot.html
And
“my expectation was that fixing this data would make the negative signal for all cause mortality from vaccines clear. this was going to be too big to hide. well, i was half right. it was too big, but they seem to have gone to massive lengths to hide it.”
the new UK ONS data is out and it’s worse than before. this was not a fix, it was further breakage”
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-new-uk-ons-data-is-out-and-its
Via http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2023/02/23/safe-and-effective-120/
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Adenovirus-platelet interaction in blood causes virus sequestration to the reticuloendothelial system of the liver
Adenovirus-induced thrombocytopenia: the role of von Willebrand factor and P-selectin in mediating accelerated platelet clearance
00
Clever language. This could stick and grow:
“Kit” commenting in The Oz on The Ukraine war:
“Lets hope the West Woke , Wake.
That Freedom is not Free.”
50
West Woke are content with Freedumb. And Netflix.
40
“Clarkson’s Farm- Season Two, Trailer”
“Zerohedge- Clarkson’s Farm: Another Front In The War On Food”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/clarksons-farm-another-front-war-food
Links at
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2023/02/23/ive-done-a-thing/#comments
IMO the Zero Hedge is interesting reading, and comments at SDA
10
2GB (Hadley) has just pointed out that our PM , who is proposing caps on Superfunds and revisions to the tax etc etc, …Albo will be entitled to a “pension” of 75% of his final salary (+extras) when he quits politics.
That will ammount to $400,000+ anually for the rest of his life.
Similar sums will be paid to “Waster” Swan, anf others who have been in politics since 2004, as the alterations to the politicians pension scheme in 2004 to limit the excesses, was NOT retrospective in the way being proposed for general super funds now .
“A bit rich” is the phrase often used to describe such hipocrocy !
70
If this is good legislation (pretend for a moment it is), he can’t ever enact it because of his own pension plan?
23
Same as all the world I expect.. Certainly NZ passed the politicians ‘Gold-Plated’ super at midnight one Friday before a long weekend & hoped no-one would notice, back in the 70s.
Animal Farm is just as real as 1984.
20
Brane Cosmology.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/22/world/webb-telescope-massive-early-galaxies-scn/index.html
10
Recommended to visit Senator Malcolm Roberts in Estimates Committee asking questions of CSIRO about modelling “renewables”.
https://www.malcolmrobertsqld.com.au/csiro-manipulate-assumptions-to-make-wind-and-solar-look-cheap/ Start at 10 mins for detail.
They discuss capacity factors for wind and solar.
Compared here are CSIRO model assumptions, then actual NEM performance year 2022.
Wind, 40% assumed, 29% measured.
Solar, 26% assumed, 19% measured.
Why the difference? CSIRO is counting on future technology improvements.
…
BUT a large part of the capacity factor cannot be improved much or at all by technology. For wind, there are large periods when it is too slow or too fast. Only marginal gains at the edges are possible with technology of windmill design. For solar, the sun does not shine at all at night, so no tech fixes are possible for realities like this.
For the answers on capacity factors given in the Senate, I regard these by CSIRO to be deliberate scientific malfeasance – a charge that deserves formal investigation.
….
The detailed CSIRO responses will be given to Sen Roberts in time. Maybe we all should ask for copies, then combine ideas for a formal investigation.
Geoff S.
80
Not quite right, Greg.
Winding the clock back a few years to when solar first became the flavour of the day, a French government offered a massive bonus for solar power fed into the grid.
Some enterprising Frenchies set up a heap of solar panels, aimed WWII surplus search lights at them, and generated “solar power” in the middle of the night when off-peak mains power was cheap.
They eventually got caught, but it turned out that the way the subsidy rules were written they hadn’t actually done anything illegal and couldn’t be prosecuted.
50
IIRC that was Spain
30
Quite probably, Ian.
After seven strokes the old memory ain’t what it used to be.
10
Greg would agree
01
MV. A commenter is trying to get in touch with you. I just sent you their message via email.
00
Thanks, Jo.
Message received and replied to.
Peter S
00
I also believe it was Spain,
..and i also heard others were using diesel gensets at the solar farms to game the feed back tarrif !
That was when diesel was cheap (ag/ commercial rates ) and the FITwas crazy high.
I doubt it is still a viable ploy at todays fuel costs and FIT levels
10
Geoff, the Aurecon CF figures, which CSIRO used in their GenCost report, show wind CF as 40% in 2020/2021. But this is clearly WRONG, as Tony repeatedly points out.
Worse still, Aurecon assumes that somehow this wind CF will magically increase up to 46% by 2050.
30
Why not 46% by 2050? So many other aspects of the “renewable” energy push are characterized by magical thinking, why feel inhibited? Just imagine anything that suits the narrative and the business case.
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And how do different life cycles influence capacity factors?
As wind and solar CF’s combined are in the 25% range with a life of +/- 20 years compared with +/- 60 years for fossil fuels surely this equates to a long term CF of 25 x 20/60 of less than 10% when compared with FF’s.
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Ah, now you are moving into the discussion area of why LCOE costing methods are wrong, because they are only used for each separate source over its actual lifetime.
So when organisations such as the CSIRO try to compare costs using LCOE, it becomes a totally false comparison.
00
Speaking, as we were yesterday about”Oldtimers Disease”:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/neurology/alzheimersdisease/102961
00
Humboldt Current reinvigorated as marine heatwave loses its grip.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-92.98,-40.38,1060/loc=-71.747,-43.750
00
For some techie reason I can’t access nullschool anymore; Windy works fine however.
As for SST anomalies, tropicaltidbits clearly shows the COOLER patches left behind after TC Freddy (from WA right across the Indian Ocean to Madagascar) and ex-TC Gabrielle between QLD and NZ – mobile spinning air-conditioners cooling off the sea surface, another marvel of nature in balance (as opposed to Greenies’ back-to-front ‘imbalance’).
Southern NZ’s so-called ‘summer marine heatwave’ simply means instead of being a mind-numbing 16C (I’ve swum ‘n’ surfed in it, brrr!) it’s now 18C – wetsuit still advised. Plus with all the recent SNOW about to head downstream, methinks that minor blip of warmth will be short-lived. Maybe we’ll have a summer NEXT year…
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Nullschool hasn’t changed, still shows the same.
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MHW surrounds the South Island and heads east, no doubt soon to be upgraded to ‘blob’ status.
On the other side of the Pacific the SST remain relatively high along the Chile Rise, its probably just a coincidence.
00
This essay by Bosse and Lewis critiquing a recent paper, just go to the conclusion for the gist of it.
https://judithcurry.com/2023/02/21/do-european-tree-ring-analyses-indicate-unusual-recent-hydroclimate/
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Attempting to unravel the enigma of ENSO.
‘We went back and looked at all the El Nino’s that occurred after the 11-year solar cycle trough and found a very reliable 4/5 year cycle going back to 1850. Meaning that El Nino formed between 4 and 5 years after the maximum trough. January 2020 was the trough of the last 11 year solar cycle projecting El Nino by late 2023 into late 2024.
‘In addition, the 1 in 100 year 89-Year Gleissberg Cycle of US droughts that has verified for the last 11 centuries is due to trigger again in the 2023-2025 timing window.’ (Barchart)
20
Unexpected lesson learnt by WEF/big pharma from first power grab experiment.
Lesson: pesky serfs who claim and use better medications to the one that must be taken.
Future solution: Get rid of the ivermectin type impediments ahead of the next pandemic release.
Simples.
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Interesting.
They’ve just started a similar push here in Oz to make Panadol (paracetamol) prescription only.
30
Aren’t the Kiwis trying to ban supplements?
20
From the “policy leaders”, Kanaduh:
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2023/02/23/socialist-retirement/
Coming soon to a country VERY near us?
20
“How dare you Klaus Schwab” At last, a “how dare you” alternative to Greta. Emanating from protests over Oxford’s 15 Minute Cities impost:https://youtu.be/Vc19jgz5vUs
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It is revealing to visit the latest Senator Malcolm Robert’s web site where he questions CSIRO about their latest report to inform AEMO about what values affect the cost of intermittent.
The CSIRO box says they used certain capacity factors for wind and solar when calculating levellised costs. The excuse was that technology should become more efficient over time so giving higher capacity to perform.
BUT some major effects on W & S cannot improve by technology. For solar, the sun will shine for an immutable amount each day, the disappear for the night. For wind, it can blow too slow or too fast for windmills to work and technology cannot change the wind pattern.
In this short Senate Estimates questioning, I saw first hand what I had long suspected, that CSIRO were relying on theoretical mathematical and economic analysis, with little regard to real life measurements and national experience elsewhere.
So they push the advertising line that renewables are cheap (in theory), without adding that they are horribly expensive in practise. They need grilling why they gave wind a huge capacity factor of 40% to make their case look good.
I call that deliberate scientific malfeasance. Geoff S
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That might be what polite people like you call it, Geoff.
However, some of us more “basic” types a different expression for it.
But such terms are understandably banned here.
Copulatory excrement doesn’t have quite the same impact.
30
an interesting little video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKIOSnKX96E
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Just a hint that El Nino Modoki is on the cards.
‘Once La Niña has officially ended, forecast models suggest that the Pacific Ocean will either remain in a neutral state throughout autumn and into winter, or possibly transition towards an El Niña phase around the middle of 2023.’ (Weatherzone)
10
Well, well, well…
Here we go:
Two major energy providers have floated the idea to the Australian Energy Regulator of charging NSW and ACT households to feed their solar power into the grid during the day.
The new feed-in tariffs would affect households during the sunniest part of the day, under proposals from Evoenergy and Essential Energy to the Australian Energy Regulator.
This is the (required by legislation) regulatory proposal by Essential Energy to the Australian Energy Regulator. (Dated 20th February 2023):
https://www.essentialenergy.com.au/-/media/Project/EssentialEnergy/Website/Files/About-Us/2024-29-Regulatory-Proposal-AER.pdf?la=en&hash=955540A9277557DCDFE7323DB292B8BBC46CD2A3
Page 88 of their PDF:
Two quotes from first paragraph, Page 88:
“Our proposed tariffs include pricing based on the electricity you consume, and the introduction of export prices for electricity you export.”
“Our export tariff transition strategy will improve the way we recover the costs of operating our network, while also empowering you to save money by choosing when to use or export the energy you generate.”
Ok Lets look at what they say.
They propose to tax NSW and ACT residents for the solar energy that you paid for and produce. Via a feed in tariff, from the hours of 10 am to 3 pm.
Understand that this is their current proposal to the AER. (20 Feb 2023)
Well, well, well… Who would have thought that would happen?
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I wonder if the PV inverters can be set to not export to the grid above a certain net value (eg currently produced less current consumption)
00
That result can be achieved by slightly dropping your OP voltage. This is not supposed to be consumer-adjustable but there is always a go around.
As I see it, and a real electrician discussed this over a beer, if you are in an area with high penetration of PV, you can boost your OP V and still export while others are shut out. Now that is to ensure priority FIT when 42c/kW is on offer. If you are going to be charged for your OP you drop your feed in V and save a few $s.
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Anyone with solar will now pump up everything they can to suck up as much electricity as they can during that period.
Air cons in summer, heaters in winter pool heating .. whatever…
EV charging even in winter…. 😉
Should be interesting to see the unintended consequences. 🙂
Coal powered stations will love it !
20
I tried to make the point once to a rabid AGW apostle that the tiny difference batteries might make to a grid would would be to the benefit of coal burners because it is always they that have to adjust output, so storage will have a slight smoothing effect on their output. He called me a liar.
It is nearly 20 yrs we have been
debatingarguing such topics on line and he still calls people who raise engineering matters flat out liars. He will die on the ramparts.20
On the value of fact checkers
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/worlds-most-ridiculous-fact-checker
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Think of the real finer points of English that he could mangle
00
Fox on GBNews, vaccine efficacy/safety esp. in respect women. Starts at 14:50, first guest is followed by a second for balance.
https://www.youtube.com/live/OEgiaErVqF4
00
Diversity the main thing eh Alf?
https://youtu.be/aBzc0xoUDKg
00
More on the Ohio train crash
“Exhibit ‘A’ On Stupidity”
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=248176
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Enemy spies under every bed in the last couple of days.. Russian or Chinese, it doesn’t matter for ASIO when their budget review is coming up!
“Visa cancelled: Spy fears over space adviser’s Russian ties”
“Ex-spy boss says Russia keen for Australia’s secrets”
SMH this morning.
Its a good thing the whiter-than-white West with its ‘values-based’ morality would never spy on anyone!
Oh wait..
“As the west fears China may start sending arms to Russia, US diplomat Victoria Nuland addresses China: “You… claim to be neutral… You claim to support UN charter principles of the sovereignty of states & non-aggression – so behave that way, and do not contribute to this fight.””
So its fine for the USA to pour arms into a war in Europe, but not China.. ‘Values-based’ doesn’t exclude hypocrisy obviously!
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An fairly long essay by Andy May at wuwt and this caught my eye. El Nino became increasingly active as the planet cooled.
‘The frequency of El Niños increased. They were quite rare during the HCO, but they became more common as the Northern Hemisphere cooled. Otzi the Tyrolean Iceman was killed and frozen into an advancing glacier. A large human genetic shift took place in Europe, the Chalcolithic Period transitioned to the Bronze Age, and the woolly mammoth went extinct.’
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