In this blogpost, we look at school absence data from September up to the end of last week (9th July) for secondary school pupils in Years 7 to 10. We looked at Year 11 last week.

Firstly, a definitional note. When we talk about “absences,” we mean any missed sessions. Where we distinguish between sessions missed for COVID isolation or quarantine reasons and other reasons we will say “COVID absences” and “other absences”.

One thing to note is that our data is being read directly from our schools’ registers, meaning that our classification of absences into “COVID” and “other” depends on the attendance codes the schools are using^[1]. This is in contrast to the DfE’s weekly updates which are collected via survey, allowing schools to add extra context beyond what’s in the register.

Overall picture: absence by Year group…

Overall, absences were up this week compared with last week: pupils missed 21% of sessions this week, on average, compared with 17% last week. 13% of sessions were missed due to COVID isolation and quarantine, and 8% due to other reasons (up from 10% and 7% last week.) For context, in 2018/19 the average absence rate in secondary schools in Summer term was around 6%.

As expected from our previous blogposts on the topic, where we showed that older students have been affected disproportionately by absence during the pandemic, Year 10 have the highest absence rates and Year 7 the lowest, though both have increased this week, driven mostly by COVID isolation and quarantine absences.

… and in the regions

Unsurprisingly, given the local nature of COVID outbreaks, absence rates vary substantially by region.

Absences are highest in the North, with the North East by far the hardest hit at the moment. A massive 37% of sessions were missed last week, with 27% missed due to COVID isolation and quarantine. In contrast, London saw an overall absence rate of 15%, and a COVID absence rate of 8%. All regions saw increases in absence this week, with the biggest rise in the North East (+7%) and the smallest in the South West (+2%).

Looking at the case rates in these regions, we can see the relationship between local case rates^[2] and school absence rates clearly. In the North East, both absence and case rates are highest and rising fastest, and regions with lower absence rates also have lower case rates.

Change in regional absence over time

We saw in the Autumn term how schools in the north initially had higher absence rates but this changed dramatically towards the end of term as the alpha variant of COVID took hold. Unfortunately, in the past few weeks we have seen a similarly dramatic acceleration, particularly in the North East where absence levels are now higher than they were in London and the South East at the end of the Autumn term.

This followed a period of relative stability almost everywhere between the end of the national lockdown and May half-term. Again, we see these patterns of absence reflected in local COVID case rates.

Summing up

Absences this week are high and increasing, with the rise driven by COVID isolation and quarantine in regions with high COVID case rates, particularly the North East.

The Government announced last week an end to the “bubble” system on 19 July, and an end to the requirements for masks and physical distancing from the start of the new school year. We will see the impact this, and the summer holiday firebreak, has on absence in September.

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