“The Worst Is Yet To Come” (Again)–IPCC
By Paul Homewood
It’s worse than we thought, again!
A leaked draft report from the United Nations (UN) includes a stark warning about climate change – ‘the worst is yet to come,’ with droughts, starvation and extreme heat all mooted for the next 30 years.
The report, from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set to be released next year, but it was obtained by Agence France-Presse (AFP), which reported on the findings Thursday.
That draft states that prolonged warming even beyond 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5C) could produce ‘progressively serious, centuries’ long and, in some cases, irreversible consequences.’
These consequences, according to the report, are set to appear by 2050 and will likely cause 130 million people worldwide to face chronic hunger, 350 million to be in drought and expose 420 million more people to extreme and potentially lethal heatwaves.
‘The worst is yet to come, affecting our children’s and grandchildren’s lives much more than our own,’ the report says.
‘Climate change will fundamentally reshape life on Earth in the coming decades, even if humans can tame planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.’
The report is the AR6, and it has clearly been leaked by the IPCC themselves, in order to ramp up alarm prior to COP26 this year.
The leaks are full of what might happen in future, but plainly there is no evidence that anything untoward is actually happening at the moment. This is of course consistent with previous IPPP reports, which have failed to find any proof that extreme weather is getting worse.
The claims, which are based around an increase in global temperatures of about 0.5C, are in any case utterly absurd.
130 million people facing chronic hunger, for instance. This flies in the face of the official UN data which shows how the prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries has fallen by more than half since the 1970s, and continues to drop despite climate change.
https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment
Apparently millions will be riddled with disease as well. But it is a myth that diseases such as malaria are “tropical diseases”, as Our World in Data explain:
Mankind has succeeded in suppressing malaria because of three basic reasons:
- Insecticides
- Draining of swamps
- Social & economic development, for instance improvements in housing conditions
They go onto claim that the Great Barrier Reef will perish by 2025. But Dr Peter Ridd has already confirmed that the Reef has completely recovered since the 2016 bleaching event:
“The area which was hit by the 2016 bleaching has completely recovered; every area except one has got above average coral cover, some at near-record levels… so actually the statistics make it look wonderful,”
There is the usual nonsense about rising sea levels, which ignores the fact that the seas stubbornly refuse to rise faster than they did a century ago. We are also told to worry that the Greenland ice sheet will soon melt completely, a physical impossibility, even under the projected warming. But they fail to explain that temperatures in Greenland are no higher than they were a century ago, and have been trending downwards for the last decade, never mind the rest of the last 10,000 years, during which time the ice sheet did not melt away.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/06/12/greenland-temperatures-2021/
Another scare is thrown out about the Amazon:
For example, the Amazon Rainforest, where I work, has been suffering badly from bizarre droughts in recent years. These droughts are being triggered by exceptionally warm Atlantic seas that drive rain-bearing winds away from the rainforest—killing hundreds of millions of trees and triggering severe wildfires.
But the IPCC’s last report, AR5, did not mention any of this at all. As any competent meteorologist knows, rainfall patterns in the Amazon basin are intimately tied into the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (AR5 – page 220). A warmer Atlantic is associated with drier conditions in the Amazon, but also with a wetter climate in the Sahel. In short, you cannot have your cake and eat it. And as King Canute would have told you, you cannot stop the AMO.
As is always the case, the fraud is exposed with this comment from Professor William Laurance, director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Sciences (TESS) at James Cook University:
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Concise take down of yet more UN BS.
Scaring the kids.
Specifically, which climate do they expect to change?
Excellent point. There are five major climate zones in North America alone. Which one(s) are going to change?
I like the map which I have not seen before. I will look at it in more detail with interest.
I would like to see an analysis of the Koppen climate zones to see which ones are changing. Clearly having an average global temperatures is nonsensical when you are mixing up thermometers from different zones, each one of which will be doing different things.
And that analysis should be a collection of time series analyses of individual stations, using non-“homogenised” data and only stations that have been inspected to check that they are not affected by UHI. Then average the individual trends. Remember that the Met Office still maintains that their Heathrow station is not affected by UHI, so careful checking is necessary.
The Alarmists habit of ‘constructing’ historical data that doesn’t exist by “homogenising” data is one of their worst solecisms.
Belief that ‘average global temperatures’ can tell you how the climate will trend is about as valid as saying that a vehicle’s average speed can indicate what probable direction it is trending towards.
They might have a point about food shortages due to climate change – climate COOLING. Allan Macrae’s thorough paper in March gave plenty of evidence it has begun (as he has been predicting since 2002 would happen about now) A cooler world would indeed lower food growth. However there is a way to mitigate it – pump more plant food in the form of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Just what more do the IPCC expect to happen as a result of leaking this report. I cannot see any way of accelerating the mad plans that we already have in the west, they are pretty much impossible now. China is hardly likely to change direction, Russia will welcome crippling the west’s economy. All to virtue signal at COP26.
As it starts to become clearer that the whole game is unaffordable and infeasible, and the attempt is highly damaging economically, the penny will slowly drop that not enough countries will be able to afford to make the attempt in the first place to make a difference. The smarter cookies have already reached this conclusions, and realise that to the extent that any climate scares turn out to have an element of truth about them it will be far better to have a well functioning economy that can afford to adapt as necessary than to have sunk huge funds into trying to change the climate to no effect.
Cults never tire of talking about the doom their cul predicts. It consumes cult leaders and they can think and speak of nothing else.
GeoffB,
The whole exercise in leaking the document is to prime scared & guilt ridden Western nations’ leaders into even more stupid actions — AND it will work(!) because Western nations have weak stupid leaders who are majorly compliant to the UN’s want, desires, and demands. Western nations will take new actions even when they are very detrimental to these nations’ wealth and industries and even more so for their populations.
Plus how many of those leaders and other society bigwigs will magically find lucrative positions on the climate change gravy train (eg, Mark Carney) shortly after they leave office? There’s lots of money in climate change.
They keep moving the apocalypse date. First, it was 1990. Then, 2000, 2010, 2020, now 2050. They remind me of the guys seeking fusion energy funding. It’s always fifty years out.
One of the by-products of the pandemic is that the research at Oxford into vaccines got accelerated. An important beneficiary is a malaria vaccine which looks very promising. If that promise is fulfilled, it is likely that malaria will be radically reduced – as it might have been already had the programme of elimination of mosquitos using DDT not been brought to a premature halt. In fact, for African countries the malaria vaccine is probably far more important than the covid ones. Likely to have fewer side effects than some of the existing prophylactics too. I suffered some unpleasant side effects from Lariam (although I think that has now been withdrawn), and I think my tinnitus was at least partly caused by it as well.
ENd result would be another failed IPCC projection of course. So would they try to prevent vaccine deployment? Most malaria deaths are in the under 5s.
They’re doing the fashionable(?) thing of recycling, in this case it is previous predictions that have avoided the rubbish bin.
The temperature rise (and 5.4℉ = 3℃) was first made in 1987 when NASA’s James Hansen predicts world 3C warmer by 2020.
The rising sea levels dates from 2005 as Manhattan Underwater by 2015 but building on the 1988 “The Maldives will be underwater in 2018 and the 1989 one from UN Officials that Rising seas to ‘obliterate’ nations by 2000 If nothing is done within 10 years.
2004 Rising seas to ‘obliterate’ nations by 2020 If nothing is done within 10 years
2004: Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked, Professor Sir David King.
In 2005, the United Nations Environment Programme predicted that climate change would create 50 million climate refugees by 2010. These people, it was said, would flee a range of disasters including sea level rise, increases in the numbers and severity of hurricanes, and disruption to food production.
AND
1989: 10 Years to solve Climate Crisis
2009: 12 years to Save the World
2017: Only 4 years to save the Planet
2018: Only 12 years to Save the World
If at first your prediction doesn’t work, try, try again.
.
A pretty honest account as regards Malaria in the UK below. Of course climate change is almost irrelevant, it was and still would be endemic in a lot of the UK but for other factors.
https://www.cleanriverstrust.co.uk/the-ague-returns/
Some people are doing their best to recreate the marshes though, re-flooding perfectly good farmland seems to be trendy at the moment.
Maybe they should start issuing HCQ pills to head off the malaria.
During the War the US Military issued anti-malarial tablets to plenty of servicemen in Italy. But of course the geniuses in charge now have zero knowledge of history.
They have knowledge. They choose to let OTHER people suffer. They are EVIL. Begin there and much becomes clear.
Mr Grim, is this the farmland they first build houses on before letting them flood?-)
Might as well be. It makes you wonder where all our vegetable and fruit based diet will be grown, what with all the re-flooding, re-wilding, houses for millions of climate refugees, wind farms, solar farms…….. They’ll be able to squeeze a few extensive walled country parks out for the boss-class to live in though.
As opposed to the millions NOW suffering from communist, Leftist, and Islamist oppression? And covid lockdowns?
Yes it looks like in the natural changes of climate it is getting colder. Nothing to do with fossil fuel CO2
Thought the end of the world floods, storms, amazingly high temperatures etc was supposed to be here now. So why are most parts of the world experiencing unseasonably cold temperatures?
Did you miss the prediction of the coming ice age by Time in 1977?
Amazing high temps. are arriving on cue – random chance, not AGW fueled global incineration though.
More about the IPCC
https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/21/ipcc-science/
Good post Chaam.
Thank you
In the merry East of England we seem to be enjoying another rather indifferent summer. Just like the ones that I have been experiencing for the past 62 years.
In the South East on midsummer’s morning, our daily Teams chat was about having the heating on. In the evening it was either light the fire or get a sweatshirt.
Millions will suffer from climate change so billions must suffer from our futile attempts to combat it.
What next? Leftists never ask that.
On a sad note, Robert Felix of iceagenow passed away earlier this month.
Yes for anyone interested Iceagenow has a post up for posters to share their remembrances of Robert and his work.
That’s very sad to hear.
I am reading this on a cold rainy day – in late June!
On the other hand, the world could legitimately turn on China, India and some others and legitimately accuse them of being the biggest generators of CO2 (and pollution) to the dangerous levels set out by the IPCC? What goes around comes around!
On the other hand, the world could legitimately turn on China, India and some others and legitimately accuse them of being the biggest generators of CO2 (and pollution) to the dangerous levels set out by the IPCC? What goes around comes around!
Apologies for the double tap.
“So good you said it twice?” 🤓
Is there a guarantee with this latest IPCC ‘prediction’, Paul? Have you read the small print?
Several times bitten. Now extremely shy of the IPCC shysters.
I’m not sure Phoenix44 is spelling cults correctly :))
I must confess to being neither scientist nor mathematician but knowing that the UK is responsible for just 1% of the world’s CO2 emissions and also that of that 1%, 95% comes from purely natural causes such as the respiration of living organisms, our government can only reduce emissions from 5% of that 1%.This is so insignificant globally as to be completely irrelevant and yet the microscopic 1% of 5% will be reduced even further when the emitters such as aircraft,shipping,military vehicles and dozens of other categories which would have to be exempted are taken into consideration.
Bearing in mind that most of the larger and possibly saner nations of the world will have nothing to do with the 4000 pages (does anybody ever read it all?) of looming disaster produced by the IPCC does Boris really have any idea of the consequences of his Green Party policies.
Ah. The difference is that we can afford the change because Bob Ward has a letter in yesterday’s Times saying so and quoting as reference the analysis by the “independent experts at the Climate Change Committee.”
GWPF has a post about an article in the Sunday Telegraph from former energy minister Chris Skidmore – no, I have never heard of him either – saying:
‘We need to level now with people about the trade-offs, the compromises and sacrifices, but also the benefits that can be secured through making change happen now. Trust means working with people to achieve shared ambitions and potential, not working to a centralised plan without widespread support that will be destined to fail. Our future is too important to fail. Yes there will be challenges to achieving net zero, no one doubts that, but let’s seize the benefits with both hands too.’
Which just shows the arrogance of these tossers. What benefits? What shared ambitions? I would suspect that everyone commenting here does NOT share the Netzero fantasy of Skidmore.
Our future is important and stopping these morons from effing it up is important.
“AR6: This time, we really mean it!”
I was intrigued by the notion in the press release that the report had been ‘leaked’.
That’s probably a deliberate ploy as it will give people the impression that there must be something important the IPCC was trying to hide. When there wasn’t.
IPCC continues to base its absurd claims on a failed theory backed by computer models built on that same failed theory… is it any wonder their predictions always fail?
IPCC = BS
The IPCC should have leaked the science.
How can the worst be yet to come, when little to nothing (certainly nothing that humans can actually see, or feel) has trended worse so far? Even then any actual connection to some potential human influence on rising global temps and changing weather patterns – can’t be proven (found).
Humans can’t actually feel an average 1/2 degree of GW over the course of their lifetime. They can feel 20+ degrees of warming if they move from Boston to Miami. And they can certainly suffer from the Urban Heat Island effect, but that has nothing to do with AGW, or even naturally occurring GW.
The IPCC have set up a hostage to fortune by claiming the world is going tits up in 29 years time. Let’s face it, many people in 2050 will be able to compare life then to 2021, and if it’s anything to compare to my memory of life in 1991 – or even 1961 – then they’re on a hiding to nothing. Mind you, in those 30 years to come the West can get their governments to wreak worse havoc on their citizens than CC would ever do. It’s not climate change our children should be scared of but democratic change.
Your favourite, Joe Shute, was at it again at the weekend in the Telegraph with a critique of his forthcoming. This Yorkshire dweller, his membership of that august county should be revoked, has been watching nature and has espied the northern creep of species obviously running before the advance of AGW. I would suggest that the movement of wildlife in our built-up environment is more likely due to displacement. But it all plays to the warming lobby; in desperation, creatures are seeking new environments to get away from the developers and this could actually be a Prague Spring of sightings before many so displaced find that they have not the environment or seclusion to survive. Not CO2 that is the destroyer but the cack-handed destruction of the complexity of nature, its web of habitat inter-reliance.
But it will fuel the likes of Shute because from creep it will almost certainly move in rapid succession to disappearance. These creatures, especially insects, need certain conditions to thrive and therefore all their predators too. We were told that our back gardens were the new habitat. With the numbers of folks turning their properties into yards, devoid of even token nature, this allusion has to be seen for what it is, a fanciful determination to sanctify building.
Last week the BBC went to a lot of trouble to tell us that the Jet Stream (which, as far as the narrative was concerned, is a new phenomenon) was the creator of weather and its sinister and mysterious doings were behind the Gale that the Met did not spot and which enshrined Michael Fish as the God of Misrule. But then, to continue the mania and to stay on the manic side of things, they could not help themselves from suggesting that this free spirit, only recently brought to the fore, was, of itself, a manifestation of Global Warming and, of course, presaged worse things to come. Yes, it comes down to doom and gloom and future…tense. Until someone with guts gets to grips with this, starvation and the eradication of nature by the power of greed and over-population will succeed where the weather will not. Although the Jest Stream science is in its infancy already it has been adopted as a plague on mankind while innocently going about its work as the engine behind our weather without which all manner of cataclysm would be possible.
And the solution just happens to be the global neo Marxism.
The usual procedure with the IPCC is to release the Summary for Policy Makers 3 months before you see the report it is supposed to summarise. Given the Summary is a political document which changes the report’s findings, that time is spent fiddling the report to match what the Summary says. As somebody once said, the IPCC is an advocacy group not a scientific organisation.
From the mid 2030’s stronger solar wind states will drive a colder AMO again like through 1969-1995. That does mean a drier Sahel, but it will stop continental glacier retreat and Greenland melt, and reduce Amazon drought.