The Week That Was: 2021-07-10 (July 10, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So.” – Attributed to Mark Twain
Number of the Week: – 1,000 Times
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Heatwave: The extreme heatwave of the US northwest and Canadian southwest is over. Carbon dioxide levels remain about the same, the greenhouse effect remains about the same, but the temperatures are back to normal with cooling sea breezes returning along the coast. So, what was the cause?
US northwest veteran meteorologists Chuck Wiese and Cliff Mass address the issue differently but similarly. Any influence from greenhouse gases was too small to be significant and the heatwave was similar to heatwaves of the past under the intense June sun. The natural flow of a high-pressure system slows when the jet stream moves in north-south directions rather than the usual west to east direction. As stated in last week’s TWTW, the jet stream is guided by naturally occurring Rossby Waves. Journalist Stu Cyrk published the technical explanation by Chuck Wiese which includes calculations.
Wiese recognized past heatwave records in the Portland area and was initially skeptical of forecasts of the records being broken by numerical weather models because the models are frequently wrong.
“These only became believable as the model output became repetitious in several runs as we got within 2 days of the expected extreme temperatures. This is common practice in operational meteorology to become suspicious of model output extremes especially since we have seen many occasions where extremes in temperature or precipitation given by models back off from those predictions and self-correct within a couple of days of an extreme event. But it turns out the numerical model output in this situation was correct several days in advance.”
Weise then looked at greenhouse gases.
“The water vapor optical depths of the 1981 heat wave and today’s extremes were nearly identical as taken off the atmospheric soundings from Salem, OR. Therefore, that wasn’t the reason. What about atmospheric CO2? In 1981, the Mauna Loa CO2 level was given as 341 ppmv (parts per million volume) whereas today it is 416 ppmv. In calculating the change in radiative forcing from CO2 as a stand-alone constituent, the difference from 1981 to now is only 1.07 Wm-2. (Watts per square meter).”
He then goes through his calculations in degrees Kelvin. Using the correct scale for such calculations is important. Weise calculated that the CO2 effect was
“…0.15 degrees Centigrade [Celsius] (deg C) or a possible contribution of +.27 deg F to the heating total. “Therefore, CO2’s contribution to this heat wave is far too small to even move the thermometer upwards from the 107 deg F old records to a measurable whole degree F. And this is not even measurable with many of the degree of accuracy specifications of many thermometers.” [Underline and boldface in original.”
Weise goes through a lengthy discussion of other natural influences on weather including Rossby Waves. He then states:
“It is also worth noting that these pressure patterns are created through chaotic and random variation within the atmospheric system and are not predictable in general terms more than about a week ahead of time with any reliability. It is unlikely we will see any repeat pattern of this within the next week to 10 days and no assurance that this warm and hot weather pattern will even persist for the latter part of the summer. Sometimes the summers can end cooler and wetter and other times hot and dry like now. There is simply no predictability to this except in very general terms as related to the ocean cycles, and they are not even correct at all times. But from this data, a later summer heat wave will never reach the records we just set.” [Boldface added.]
Weise then exposes some of the false claims being spread by scientists who do not understand the weather, politicians using fear for their benefit, and journalists spreading “climate hysteria.”
The journalist recaps:
“Conclusion. Yes, there is real science behind the Pacific Northwest heatwave, but not that put forth by the climate alarmists who are hell-bent on pulling the wool over Americans’ eyes and rushing to wreak the economic havoc associated with their Green New Deal. Chuck Wiese just took the alarmists to task and exposed their Al Gore-like deceitfulness. Will any of them provide counterarguments on a par with Wiese’s scientific explanation for the heat wave? Will they deign to answer his six questions with scientific proof? One thing for sure: their usual alarmist hysterics, emotions, and hyperbole won’t help their case with thinking Americans.”
Presenting his information as a television weatherman, Cliff Mass gives his explanation in a more customary manner. However, the conclusions are similar, greenhouse gases had little effect on this highly unusual event. Mass summarizes his comments:
“Synopsis
“Society needs accurate information in order to make crucial environmental decisions. Unfortunately, there has been a substantial amount of miscommunication and unscientific handwaving about the recent Northwest heatwave, and this blog post uses rigorous science to set the record straight. First, the specific ingredients that led to the heatwave are discussed, including a high-amplitude ridge of high pressure and an approaching low-pressure area that “supercharged” the warming. Second, it is shown that global warming only contributed a small about (1-2F) of the 30-40F heatwave and that proposed global warming amplification mechanisms (e.g., droughts, enhanced ridging/high pressure) cannot explain the severe heat event. It is shown that high-resolution climate models do not produce more extreme high temperatures under the modest global warming of the past several decades and that global warming may even work against extreme warming in our region. Importantly, this blog demonstrates that there is no trend towards more high-temperature records. Finally, the communication of exaggerated and unfounded claims by the media, some politicians, and several activists are discussed.”
Apparently, there is another heatwave forming in the Great Basin region of the Western States, between the Rocky and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. This may be a topic for next week. For the discussion by Chuck Weise and Cliff Mass see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Heatwave
Coldwave and Heatwave: Last week Roy Spencer reported that the June 2021 global lower atmosphere temperatures were slightly below the thirty-year average despite the US and Canada being above normal. The temperatures of much of the Southern Hemisphere at a latitude greater than 60°S were below normal. One can see the cooling on the maps that are now available. Interestingly, the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula outside the Antarctic Circle is warmer than normal. In 2020, the Argentine Esperanza Research Station set the record for high temperatures. The station is at 63°24’S, well outside the Antarctic Circle at 66°30’S.
Also, interestingly, the text of the UAH Global temperature Report for June 2021 states:
“The warmest region, in terms of the monthly departure from average, was in association with the record heat in the US’s Pacific NW. The hottest grid cell was near Hamilton Montana at +4.3 °C (+7.7 °F). This warmth was part of an almost global band of above average temperatures in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere and included peaks in Scandinavia/Western Russia and over the Caspian Sea. Northeastern Russia and a few areas in the Southern Hemisphere were also warm.”
According to an article in The Hill from Associated Press, the Finnish Meteorological institute reported the second highest temperature recorded in Lapland of 33.6 degrees Celsius (92.5 Fahrenheit) at the Utsjoki-Kevo weather station. “The institute said there was only one higher historical measurement reported in Lapland — 34.7 C [94.5 F] in the Inari Thule area, in July 1914.” The precision of the measurements is questionable. However, both measurements are well above normal. Utsjoki is at 69°54’N and Inari is 68°54’N, both well above the Arctic Circle of 66°30’N. The high temperature of 1914 could not be from CO2 caused global warming. Measurement Issues – Surface, Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
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Cool Periods: Kenneth Richards links to a March paper in Quaternary Science Reviews, “Quantification of temperature and precipitation changes in northern China during the ‘5000-year’ Chinese History.” The abstract states:
“High-quality paleoclimate reconstructions can provide crucial climate context to test the hypothesis of climatic impact on historical culture changes. Here we report high-resolution and quantitative temperature and precipitation records covering the entire ‘5000-year’ Chinese history in northern China. Our temperature record shows a slight decrease before 1800 cal yr BP and a ∼4 °C rapid cooling afterwards, superimposed with four major ∼2–3 °C centennial-scale cold events, potentially corresponding to the widespread North Atlantic ice-rafted debris Bond events. While precipitation record shows high value before 3000 cal yr BP, and a gradual decrease of ∼250 mm with two distinct ∼100 mm centennial-scale dry intervals after 1100 cal yr BP. Our data not only provide a more complete climate background for Chinese dynasties but show the coincidence in the timing between abrupt cold and/or dry events and large-scale social unrests and southern migration of nomads. This finding reveals climate fluctuations, in particular variations in temperature, played an important role in affecting Chinese historical cultural changes.”
Based on this analysis by Chinese scientists, for northern China at least, cooling events have led to large-scale social unrests and southern migration of nomads, invasions from Mongolia. See links under Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
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Attribution Research: An article in The Daily Beast stated:
“According to legendary Princeton geoscientist Michael Oppenheimer, scientists are no longer guessing when it comes to tying extreme events like this to climate change, because a whole new field now exists that aims to tie a nice, neat bow around these very questions.
“‘There is now a well-developed science of ‘event attribution’ which deals with uncertainty,’ Oppenheimer told The Daily Beast. (His own research over the years has focused on what the specific hazards of climate change will be, not necessarily event attribution.)
“Here’s Oppenheimer’s explanation of how event attribution scientists do their jobs: They use Fractional Attribution of Risk (FAR), which he said is ‘the fraction of the intensity of an event (like a heatwave) that can be attributed to human-made greenhouse gases.’ For example, event attribution scientists calculated the FAR on 2017’s Hurricane Harvey—after the fact—and it had, Oppenheimer explained, about two times what would have been the case without the greenhouse gases at 2017 levels. That gave Harvey a FAR score of 0.5.”
In short, rather than testing the global climate models against the most appropriate evidence of the influence of greenhouse gases–atmospheric temperature trends–dangerous global warming advocates are assigning a portion of any extreme weather event to greenhouse gas warming, whether warranted or not. Calling this procedure, a “well developed science” is twisting beyond measure the concept of using the scientific method to eliminate error. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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The Trap of Exaggeration: Thirty-three years ago, Jim Hansen gave his performance to a committee of the US Senate asserting claims that could not be validated with physical evidence. Contrary to Hansen’s predictions, Manhattan’s FDR Drive is still well above the East River, and New Yorkers do not need scuba gear to take the subway. However, climate scientists continue to exaggerate what can be forecasted with some reliability and they refuse to validate their global climate models against the most appropriate physical evidence available. Now, cracks are appearing in this façade of credible science. Susan Crockford of “Polar Bear Science” brings up an interview in Icepeople.net, “The world’s northernmost alternative newspaper, published in Svalbard, Norway, “The Northernmost Town on Earth” (population 2667, 2016).
Last year, the Norwegian Polar Institute issued a dire warning that the Svalbard polar bears may go extinct in the next 50 years, though they are thriving now. When questioned about this warning, the outgoing Chairman of the Polar Bear Specialist Group blamed Crockford and other skeptics for effectively using their own data in questioning their predictions, calling her a denialist. [According to the outgoing Chairman, the polar bears may survive in Greenland and northern Canada.]
In short, an organization makes predictions without any supporting physical evidence, and when a skeptic calls the prediction into question, the wild prediction is the fault of the skeptic?
“On the basis of an in-depth statistical reanalysis of updated data on microplastics—a size fraction for which both ocean and river sampling rely on equal techniques—we demonstrate that current river flux assessments are overestimated by two to three orders of magnitude.” [Boldface added]
“We consequently identify three main methodological biases that magnified errors in the process leading from the quantification of plastic debris in individual rivers to the calculation of global river budgets. Correcting these errors leads to flux estimates that are orders of magnitude (OMs) smaller than previous values. The quest for a major missing plastic sink in the ocean then becomes needless.”
Plastic discharge is overestimated by 100 to 1,000 times that which is actually occurring? AAAS Science sees nothing wrong with these overestimates? But how can one think that such reports or the journals that see nothing wrong with massive overestimates are credible?
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
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Pogo Stick Power: In the US, much of the capital cost of wind power is subsidized by production tax credits which have been around since 1992, when there was real fear of the world running out of oil. These are transferable to “eligible project partners.”
Donn Dears provides an easy-to-follow analysis of how unreliable wind power is affecting the capacity factors of reliable types of electricity generation by undercutting their prices when wind power is available. Of course, when wind is not available, the owners of the wind turbines are indifferent to the plights of the consumer.
In analyzing wind power, a big problem is reporting the actual costs. Even the Energy Information Administration’s estimates are questionable. Also, a major issue for both wind and solar power is the costs of backup or storage which is needed for extended periods. These are not even considered but will be needed on a massive scale if “Green Energy” mandates are implemented as politicians have declared.
For the past two weeks, TWTW reported on the changes in wind power generation as reported by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), which includes the Columbia River Gorge “where the wind always blows.” The total nameplate generation is 27,879 MW of which 79.5% is hydro and 10.5% (2930 MW) is wind.
This week wind power hit bottom twice. On July 6, total generation was zero at noon, then it shot up to almost maximum of about 2700 MW before noon on July 7. Then it dropped back down to below 500 MW by noon on July 8, went back up again to over 2000 MW at midnight and hit bottom at near zero by noon on July 9, where it stayed until midnight. A child on a pogo stick.
Please note that TWTW is just following the graphs and does not know how BPA is balancing the load. Reader Paul Kenyon, a mechanical engineer, writes:
How does hydro “back up” (i.e., compensate for [erratic generation] on its grid) wind? Every design I have examined so far must lose energy in order to make up for the pogo stick nature of the wind resource. Water must be allowed to flow past the turbine to allow the over production of wind with large hydro schemes or that energy is shunted away from and then back to generator blades to act as a rapid follower.
A scheme that might work would be one where electrical generation is provided by many small generators that can each have its water feed flow diverted from the generator quickly enough to ‘follow’ the wind’s rise in generation and then back to its turbine when the wind’s generation falls again, the pogo stick up and down.
Water is massive. It can’t be started up or slowed quickly. There are also elastic (sonic) effects (pulses) which degrade turbine components. A combination of these aspects of water led to the 2009 Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station [accident] in Russia.
Just how does hydro make up for the rapid fluctuations in electrical generation from wind turbines without experiencing degradation of the hydro portion of this system and without costing the hydro portion energy, i.e., costing the system efficiency? I think that backing up wind power with hydro comes at a number of costs to the overall system physically and to system efficiency. If not, how is this magic trick done?
According to a report in Popular Mechanics, 75 people lost their lives at Sayano-Shushenskaya when:
No doubt, BPA is aware of what occurred in Russia, even if those who politically control it do not listen. TWTW thanks readers such as Paul Kenyon who provide such valuable information. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Energy Issues—US, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46576, and https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a5346/4344681/
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14th ICCC: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute will be October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
The past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, Michael Mann, Christiana Figueres, Jerry Brown, AOC, and Neil Ferguson are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 31. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. For a list of past recipients and their accomplishments in earning this honor see http://www.sepp.org/april-fools-award.cfm
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Strong Link Between Solar Activity And Rapid Cooling (2-3°C/Century) In China During The Last 5000 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 5, 2021
Link to paper: Quantification of temperature and precipitation changes in northern China during the “5000-year” Chinese History
By Can Zhang, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, March 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Objective Analysis of Wind Energy
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 9, 2021
Off By More Than 99%? It Changes Nothing!
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 3, 2021
Link to press release: The missing ocean plastic sink: Gone with the rivers
The mysterious ocean plastic sink
By University of Barcelona, July 2, 2021
Link to paper: The missing ocean plastic sink: Gone with the rivers
By Lisa Weiss, et al. AAAS Science, July 2, 2021
Did Manmade Climate Change Cause the Surfside Condo Collapse?
By Anthony Lupo, WUWT, July 7, 2021
How to constrain unconstrained global-warming predictions
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, July 8, 2021
Norway Carbon Offset Deal Blows Up Rationale for Biden’s Trillions to Fight Climate Change
By Steve Milloy, Real Clear Energy, July 01, 2021
REAL threats to planet and people
Totalitarian actions in the name of ‘climate change’ threaten wildlife, people and freedoms
By Paul Driessen, CFACT, Via GWPF, July 5, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Heatwave
Is Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Really, Really the Cause of the Great Pacific Northwest Heat Wave?
By Stu Cvrk, Red State, July 7, 2021
Was Global Warming The Cause of the Great Northwest Heatwave? Science Says No.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 5, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy
How Scientists Are So Confident They Know What’s Causing This Insane Weather
The doubters have run out of room—events have overtaken any shred of sane skepticism
By Mike Pearl, Daily Beast, July 5, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Constant dire predictions have been an attempt to counter effective criticism of polar bears as AGW icon, says outgoing PGSG chair
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 3, 2021
Link to Icepeople article: Local Polar Bears May Be Extinct in 50 Years – But ‘Thriving’ Now: Norwegian Polar Institute issues dire warning about future; ‘denialist’ blog uses NPI data to cast doubt
By Staff, Icepeople.net, July 2, 2021
Predicting the future of cod: Scientists develop new fisheries management planning tool
Press Release by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres, July 6, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance
By Vimal Koul, et al. Nature Communications Earth & Environment, July 6, 2021
“Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities.”
[SEPP Comment: Assume the predictions of climate models are correct, even though they have been altered after testing against questionable surface temperatures, can they predict ocean temperatures?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Bjorn Lomborg: Climate change coverage ignores heavy impact of heat on cold deaths
By Bjorn Lomborg, USA Today, Via GWPF, July 5, 2021
“But the study left out glaring truths that even its own authors have abundantly documented. Heat deaths are declining in countries with good data, likely because of ever more air conditioning.”
“More important, cold deaths vastly outweigh heat deaths worldwide. This is not just true for cold countries like Canada but also warmer countries like the United States, Spain and Brazil. Even in India, cold deaths outweigh heat deaths by 7-to-1.”
US Democrats & the fever dreams of Climatista
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, July 8, 2021
Climate Change, the All-Purpose Excuse and Villain
By Frank Batini, Quadrant, July 8, 2021
“Domestic water consumption in WA has increased markedly with population growth since 1911. Efforts by the Water Corporation to make Perth’s water supply less dependent on annual rainfall are sound. They have encouraged water conservation, developed two sea-water desalination plants, and have injected treated water into aquifers. However, their assertions of a direct link between rainfall, streamflow and “climate change” are unsubstantiated and misleading. I have contacted Corporation and its board on several occasions and offered to meet and discuss this issue, but my offer has not been taken up.”
Climate Sensitivity to CO2, what do we know? Part 2.
By Andy May, WUWT, July 7, 2021
The USA’s Rocky Mountains Have Not Been Cooperating With The Global Warming Narrative
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 8, 2021
What is good for the climate geese is NOT good for the ganders.
Hypocritic billionaires possess huge carbon footprints but want everyone else to reduce emissions.
By Ronald Stein, WUWT, July 9, 2021
Change in US Administrations
Harm Caused by Net Zero Carbon Policy
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 6, 2021
Biden’s obsession with climate change actually endangers the US
By Augustus Howard, New York Post, July 3, 2021
“Climate change fear is but one piece of the left’s overall ideological agenda, the program Biden both represents and serves. But, by the president’s own admission, it is also the central, animating tenet of his foreign and national security policies. Far from realpolitik, Biden offers ideological blindness to the facts on the ground — a recipe for weakness that could prove a true danger to America and the world.”
Every Picture Tells A Story: Transparency In Science
By Chuck Dinerstein, MD, June 30, 2021
“While I believe the previous administration was more heavy-handed and clumsy in its attempted meddling than most, politicized science goes back much further. Are we already in danger of committing the same politicization when we only look back over the last administration?”
John Kerry to visit Moscow officials to discuss ‘global climate ambition’
By Jordan Williams, The Hill, July 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: ‘Global climate ambition’, will Putin be able to hold back smirking?]
Putin Is Laughing and Counting All the US Dollars Now Headed His Way Thanks to Biden’s Move Against American Energy
By C. Douglas Golden, Western Journal, June 21, 2021
Link to data: U.S. Imports from Russia of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (Thousand Barrels)
By Staff, U.S. Energy Information Administration, June 30, 2021
Biden Puts OPEC & Russia First, US Oil Industry Last
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 8, 2021
Let’s Rebrand ‘Infrastructure Bill’ as ‘Anti-Suburban Zoning Bill’
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, July 6, 2021
[SEPP Comment: “Squalid Living Bill?”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Biden’s new Cold War with China will result in climate collapse, progressives warn
A political fight is brewing among wings of the Democratic Party over Beijing’s help in curbing climate change versus curbing its human rights abuses.
By Alexander Ward, Politico, July 7, 2021
When Climateers Let the Truth Slip Out
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, July 6, 2021
Seeking a Common Ground
This eventually in: tortoise beats hare
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 7, 2021
“Ultimately the debate on climate change will be settled not by rhetorical excess or quantity of funding. It will be settled by evidence. As so often in public policy, confusion and abuse seemed to get out of the gate with frightening speed. But ultimately it will be the tendency of the planet to become uninhabitably hot and stormy, or not to do so, that will decide the matter.”
Scott Adams “Says”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Adams criticizing his friend Tony Heller.]
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Covid and Climate: A Tale of Two Hysterias Part 2
By Tilak Doshi, Reposted from Forbes, Via WUWT, July 6, 2021
Policymakers: 400 PPM CO2 Killing The Climate, But 14,000 PPM Okay For Kids! Doctors Warn Against Masks
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 2, 2021
Model Issues
Central Planning Gone Wild!
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 5, 2021
Link to paper: Socio-economic conditions for satisfying human needs at low energy use: An international analysis of social provisioning
By Jefim Vogel, et al, Global Environmental Change, June 29, 2021
“Using a novel analytical framework alongside a novel multivariate regression-based moderation approach and data for 106 countries, we analyse how the relationship between energy use and six dimensions of human need satisfaction varies with a wide range of socio-economic factors relevant to the provisioning of goods and services (‘provisioning factors’).”
Record heatwave hits Finland’s Arctic Lapland
By Cameron Jenkins, The Hill, July 6, 2021
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, June 2021
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2021/June2021/202106_map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2021/June2021/202106_bar.png
For text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
Measurement Issues – Missing Heat
El Niño and the lengthening New Pause: now 6 years 10 months
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, July 3, 2021
Changing Weather
NOAA Declares:La Niña” Watch For The Fall: The Global Cooling Accelerator
By Cap Allon, Electroverse, July 9, 2021 [H/t Jo Nova]
Link to Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
By Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, July 8, 2021
Czech Extreme Weather Fatalities Study Finds “Statistically Significant Falling Trend”…Most Related To Cold!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 6, 2021
Cooler Air in Western Washington Means Strong Winds and Wildfire Threat in Eastern Washington
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 8, 2021
June 1951 & 1961 Also Dry And Sunny
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 6, 2021
Cold, Heavy Rain, Floods–Extreme Weather In June 1971!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 7, 2021
Changing Seas
If diatoms could talk
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 7, 2021
Australia and its allies challenge China & climate alarmists over reef ‘in danger’ claim
By Staff, The Australian, Via GWPF, July 8, 2021
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctica hit record high temperature in 2020, scientists confirm
By Caroline Vakil, The Hill, July 3, 2021
Polar bears have begun to come ashore on Western Hudson Bay
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 9, 2021
Changing Earth
Oh that peat
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The “carbon bomb.”]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Opinion: Iowa crop yields are setting records, not failing, amid modest warming
Modest climate change have improved conditions for farmers, so there’s no need for concern about the future.
By H. Sterling Burnett, Des Moines Register, July 6, 2021 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Cleaner air has boosted US corn and soybean yields
By Staff Writers, Stanford CA (SPX), Jul 07, 2021
Link to paper: Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of U.S. maize and soybean yield gains since 1999
By David Lobell and Jennifer Burney, Environmental Research Letters, June 29, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Does not describe the influence of CO2, mislabeled as a pollutant.]
Global Warming Is Increasing the Likelihood of Frost Damage in Vineyards
By Mike Pomranz, Yahoo News, July 6, 2021
Link to paper: Human influence on growing period frosts like the early April 2021 in Central France
By R. Vautard, et al. Posted by World Weather Attribution.org, Accessed July 6, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Frosts may follow early springs, what else is new?]
Lowering Standards
June 1941–A Month Of Extremes
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 5, 2021
“Nowadays, the Met Office would blame these extremes on climate change. In those days, they had better things to worry about!”
Peter Ridd: Great Barrier Reef groups score a spectacular own goal
By Peter Ridd, The Australian, Via GWPF, July 3, 2021
So you admit you were just kidding
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: International Energy Agency (IEA) is not consistent.]
Consensus Science: Anthropocene Edition
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 9, 2021
New York Times – Chicago To Drown
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 9, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Wildlife officials ask anglers to avoid Colorado River following historic drought, heat and fire
By Caroline Vakil, The Hill, July 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: About 50 years ago kokanee salmon were introduced into part of the Colorado River. The salmon are strictly fresh water and do not go to the sea. The voluntary ban affects a stretch along the Colorado River between Kremmling and Rifle, Colorado.]
The Climate News Cabal Just Can’t Quit
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 9, 2021
“Researchers Worry”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 7, 2021
https://realclimatescience.com/2021/07/researchers-worry/ Article
https://realclimatescience.com/2021/07/researchers-worry-2/ Video
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Academic: Miami Building Collapse an “Early Warning” of Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 4, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Biden’s new Cold War with China’s communist tyranny will result in climate collapse, radical activists claim
By Staff, GWPF, July 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: “Climate Collapse”?
Climate change exacerbated record heat last week: Analysis
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, July 8, 2021
Link to study: Western North American extreme heat virtually impossible without human-caused climate change
By Staff, World Weather Attribution, July 7, 2021
CNN’s Stelter Promotes Annual Fossil-Fuel ‘Holocaust’ in Climate Panic Segment
By Brad Wilmouth, NewsBusters, July 5, 2021
Link to paper; Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem
By Karn Vohra, Environmental Research, April 2021
Sky’s Extreme Weather Fairy Tale
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 9, 2021
“When people tune into a news channel, they expect the facts – not some make believe.”
Lies, Damned Lies, And CNN
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 9, 2021
Sky’s Extreme Weather Fairy Tale
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 9, 2021
“When people tune into a news channel, they expect the facts – not some make believe.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
“The Most Dangerous Thing In The Western Hemisphere”
By Tony Heller, July 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Comments to responses to Heller showing NPR is highly politicized.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
July 2021 Heat Records Silly Season Again
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: A list of extreme headlines.]
Mistaken claims about malaria and global warming
Impossible emissions scenarios make for impossible health outcomes
By Staff, GWPF, July 9, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Greta Thunberg: “150 Weeks have Passed” but Leaders are Only Pretending to Act
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 10, 2021
The voice of youth
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 7, 2021
Expanding the Orthodoxy
California AG wants SEC to ‘use its regulatory authority’ on climate change
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, June 30, 2021
Corporate Climate Claims in Australia Now Subject to Hard Regulatory Review
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 5, 2021
Questioning European Green
Office for Budget Responsibility has failed in its statutory duties to assess the fiscal risks of Net Zero
Press Release, Global Warming Policy Forum, July 9, 2021
Link to statement: OBR turns a blind eye to Net Zero policy risks
By Staff, Global Warming Policy Forum, July 9, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
To Stop Climate Change Americans Must Cut Energy Use by 90 Percent, Live in 640 Square Feet, and Fly Only Once Every 3 Years, Says Study
Researchers admit there are absolutely no current examples of low-energy societies providing a decent living standard for their citizens.
By Ronald Bailey, Reason, July 2, 2021 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Link to paper: Socio-economic conditions for satisfying human needs at low energy use: An international analysis of social provisioning
By Jefim Vogel, et al. Global Environmental Change, June 29, 2021
“No country sufficiently meets human needs within sustainable levels of energy use.”
[SEPP Comment: Energy use in Zambia is at sustainable levels, but it may be a bit cold for those in northern climates.]
A Tale of Two States: A Warning About Joe Biden’s Power Plan
By Larry Behrens, Real Clear Energy, July 06, 2021
“With President Biden pressing on with attacks against America’s oil and natural gas workers to push his environmental agenda, it’s past time to shed a little light on the failure he’s promoting. He may claim that his proposal to produce 80% of America’s electricity through non-carbon sources is a bold new idea, it’s actually a green failure that he’s trying to recycle…and we’ve got the receipts from two states to prove it.”
Renewables Slow “Energy Transition” (It’s not easy being green)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, July 6, 2021
“’The electric vehicle maker Canoo announced in late June it would build a large factory in Oklahoma instead of in North Texas, citing the Lone Star State’s unreliable energy infrastructure as one reason.’– Houston Chronicle, July 5, 2021, B4.”
Green Jobs
The Clean Economy Revolution Will Be Unionized
A Road Map From States on Creating Good, Union Jobs To Build the Clean Energy Economy
By Rita Cliffton, Malkie Wall, Sam Ricketts, Kevin Lee, Jessica Eckdish, and Karla Walter, Center of American Progress, July 7, 2021
Funding Issues
Comments on Climate Disclosure
By David Burton, Heritage Foundation, to SEC, July 6, 2021 [H/t Real Clear Energy]
[SEPP Comment: Long post showing faults in a foolish requirement.]
The Political Games Continue
Stop Underwriting Climate Destruction
By George Miller (D CA) Real Clear Energy, July 06, 2021
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Carbon border tax: Europe’s climate fortress endangers Germany’s strength
By Staff, Die Welt, Via GWPF, July 5, 2021
EU draft exempts private jets, cargo from jet fuel tax
By Dafydd ab Iago, Argus, July 6, 2021
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden EPA’s web of conflicts with climate groups forces ethics waiver for one official
Agency concluded politically appointed lawyer could participate in cases involving ex-client despite conflict, because other appointees already recused.
By John Solomon, Just the News, July 6, 2021
American Rescue Plan
Improving Ambient Air Quality Monitoring to Address Health Income Disparities
By Staff, Ambient Monitoring Technology Information Center (AMTIC), EPA, July 7, 2021
Free Market Organizations Oppose Costly EPA Air Conditioner Regulations
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, July 6, 2021
Energy Issues — US
More Evidence of the Uselessness of “Green” Energy,
By John Hinderaker, PowerLine, July 8, 2021
Bonneville Power Administration
By Staff, BPA.Gov/transmission, Accessed June 26
BPA Balancing Authority Total Wind Generation, Near-Real-Time
BPA Balancing Authority Load and Total Wind, Hydro, Fossil/Biomass, and Nuclear Generation, Near-Real-Time
Washington’s Control of Energy
‘Smart’ Meters: Big Brother in the Home? (shortages = government rationing
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 8, 2021
“I am fearful that electricity will be turned from an affordable, thoughtless necessity into the opposite.”
[SEPP Comment: Into a rationed, luxury good?]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Why We Must Celebrate America’s Natural Gas Boom
By David Callahan, Real Clear Energy, July 05, 2021
Return of King Coal?
Coal Output in U.S. Seen Rising Most Since 1990 on Global Demand
By Will Wade, Bloomberg Green, July 8, 2021
QRC welcomes federal investment in new coal project
By Jessica Casey, World Coal, July 6, 2021 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Maine prohibiting offshore wind projects in state waters
By Celine Castronuovo, The Hill, July 8, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Turning Algae Trash into Treasure: Conservation Nation Episode 5
Video, CFACT, Via WUWT, July 6, 2021
U.S. Farm Belt lawmakers introduce bills to boost biofuel industry
By Jarrett Renshaw, Reuters, June 30, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Once a possible alternative to “running out of oil” it is now a meaningless subsidy.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Hydrogen Hype and Hurdles
By Viv Forbes, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, July 8, 2021
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2021/07/hydrogen-hype-and-hurdles.html
Carbon Schemes
Gulf Coast ready to develop carbon storage hub
Press Release by The University of Texas at Austin, July 5, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Carbon capture, utilization, and storage hub development on the Gulf Coast
By T.A. Mecke, et al. Society of Chemical Industry, May 19, 2021
California Dreaming
California Commission Issues Proposals to Ensure Grid Reliability, Meet Clean Energy Goals
CPUC issues two proposals that would order utilities to procure 11,500 MW of new electricity resources to come online between 2023 and 2026.
By Staff, T&D World, May 25, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The California Public Utilities Commission orders non-fossil fuel, non-nuclear reliable electricity generation. Will it appear?]
California braces for energy resource shortfalls amid extreme heat and drought
By Robert Walton, Utility Dive, June 28, 2021
“Tyler Hodge, a senior economist with the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said the western United States is expected to generate about 150 TWh of hydro this year, about 9% below 2020, “which also had some water supply issues.”
“The generation will ‘also be the lowest level since the last major drought we had in 2015,’ Hodge said, also speaking at USEA’s event.”
Newsom asks Californians to cut personal water consumption to fight off drought
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, July 9, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Not mentioned was that two years ago the 5-year reservoir system was overflowing, and water was dumped.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
5 million deaths a year caused by global climate related abnormal temps
More than five million deaths a year can be attributed to abnormal hot and cold temperatures
Press Release by Monash University, July 7, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
By Prof Qi Zhao, et al, The Lancet, July 2021
[SEPP Comment: According to the study, of all deaths 8.52% were cold related and 0.91 were heat related. “Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally.” What is optimal temperature?]
Environmental Industry
Proposed Green ecocide law does not work
By David Wojick, CFACT, July 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Once a bill is passed, the greens will continue to try to expand it such as they did with CFC’s destroying ozone, which is becoming clearly false.]
Other Scientific News
NASA Rocket, Satellite Tag-Team to View the Giant Electric Current in the Sky
By Miles Hatfield, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Updated July 7, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Other News that May Be of Interest
The 1619 Project
Slouching Toward Post-Journalism
The New York Times and other elite media outlets have openly embraced advocacy over reporting.
By Martin Gurri, City Journal, Winter, 2021
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Climate Narcissism 101
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 7, 2021
Climate changed the size of our bodies and, to some extent, our brains
Press Release, University of Cambridge, Via WUWT, July 9, 2021
“The researchers say there is good evidence that human body and brain size continue to evolve. The human physique is still adapting to different temperatures, with on average larger-bodied people living in colder climates today. Brain size in our species appears to have been shrinking since the beginning of the Holocene (around 11,650 years ago). The increasing dependence on technology, such as an outsourcing of complex tasks to computers, may cause brains to shrink even more over the next few thousand years.”
Claim: Machine Learning can Detect Anthropogenic Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 7, 2021
Global Warming To Threaten Wimbledon
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 6, 2021
“It is shameful that the Met Office should give its name to this pernicious, politically motivated propaganda”
How to fix the _________ crisis
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 7, 2021
Is your family pet bad for the environment? It depends.
But showing kids how to decrease their fur baby’s paw print can empower them to think more sustainably.
By Jason Bittel, National Geographic, June 28, 2021
“But the analysis’s most eco-friendly pet may surprise you—tortoises. This is thanks to the reptile’s vegetarian diet, slow metabolism, and low water and exercise requirements.”
Maine Has a Dangerous, Small, and Very Itchy Problem
Climate change is keeping temperatures higher in the fall, setting up browntail-moth caterpillars to boom in summer.
By Kendra Pierre-Louis, The Atlantic, July 7, 2021 [H/t Larry Miller]
ARTICLES
The Keystone XL Goes to Court
The pipeline’s owner wants $15 billion to redress Biden’s arbitrary permit withdrawal.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 8, 2021
TWTW Summary: The editorial states:
“The climate lobby cheered in January when President Biden revoked the State Department’s 2017 presidential permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. Now the bill is coming due, and U.S. taxpayers may have to pay.
“Keystone owner TC Energy last week filed a Notice of Intent to take legal action against the U.S. government for withdrawing the permit. In a press release the company called the decision a ‘breach’ of North American free-trade obligations. In June TC Energy officially canceled the Keystone XL and took a $1.81 billion writedown. It wants $15 billion in damages as part of a Nafta legacy claim under the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
“The U.S. has never lost before a Nafta arbitration panel. But TC Energy (formerly TransCanada) has a good case. To prevail, TC Energy will have to show that it had good reason in March 2020 to believe that its $9 billion investment was protected by the U.S. permit when it announced that it would ‘proceed with construction.’ In other words, that it had a logical expectation it would be allowed to complete the pipeline and operate it. After years of environmental and other reviews, that was a reasonable conclusion.
“Mr. Biden’s reversal on his first day in office was also irregular. Normally a company would have a chance to make its case, and the Administration would engage in a review. But Mr. Biden wanted theater for the environmental lobby, which trumped respect for an investor’s right to be treated fairly.
After stating that TC energy is not challenging the Administration’s climate views or seeking compensation for business losses from Canadian oil carried by other means. It continues:
“The company merely wants compensation for lost investment that is tantamount to expropriation under international law.
“Mr. Biden’s cancellation raises the broader question of whether investor protections in the U.S. now blow with the wind, changing when administrations do. That view will be reinforced by the decision of former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to kill Nafta’s investor-state dispute mechanism in the USMCA.
“Mr. Lighthizer argued that the protection was a subsidy for Americans to invest abroad. The TC Energy case shows how wrong that was. Without a Nafta arbitration panel, Canadian investors will be helpless against Biden environmental policy since a lawsuit against a U.S. President in U.S. domestic courts has little chance.
“”Canadians and Mexicans retain investor protections under the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, which the U.S. did not join. But cross-border investments between the U.S. and its largest trading partner are now unprotected. Treating foreign investment like a banana republic would isn’t a good look for America.
The extreme heatwave of the US northwest and Canadian southwest is over
but the Nevada California one isn’t, nor is the continuing regional drought…
and the Siberia high/record temperatures, the record in Finland/Lapland, the heatwave in E Europe and Russia recently – why don’t they get a mention?
griffter….the same reason that you no longer mention New Zealand….just stop this silliness….every year there are some hot and cold areas…so what?
I thought there was pretty good coverage of other areas touching on the main points. With the exception of the areas of cool which outweighed the areas of warm and were not covered..
Griff, believing to speak for all here, what’s about posting here an article out of your thoghts and knowledges talking about the points hearting you ?
We will be very interested and you pass well writen open peer reviews.
Western Australia is colder and wetter than for many years … that doesn’t get a mention either because it’s just weather. You fools see things thru climate emergency coloured glasses and see what you want to see.
Chuck Wiese included the following calculation in his assessment of this natural event:
Meteorology: 1
Climate Science: 0
“Society needs accurate information in order to make crucial environmental decisions. “
Society only makes social decisions. Almost absolutely all of the time, nature either adjusts or doesn’t give a damn. When it comes to climate, the latter.
Kind of how electric battery vehicles are promoted as better than internal combustion engine vehicles for nature. This is dubious not only because of the difference in required raw materials, but also in practical considerations how environmental particulars play out.
For example: vehicles are able to be on fire and to extinguish an internal combustion vehicle fire about 3 tons of water are needed; while about 20 tons of water was deployed to put out a Tesla electric vehicle fire yesterday (11July2021) in Taiwan (source = “Taiwan English News”). According to the report the local fire marshal cites “foreign research” indicating Tesla fires need up to about 75 tons of water to extinguish.
20 tons of water is equal to 5,380 U.S. Gallons of water and 75 tons of water is equal to 20,176 U.S.Gallons of water. This seems to forebode that in a significant number of electric vehicle fires statistically likely to occur in the future any deployment of water resources will have environmental impact if the immediate area has limited available water. Then the option of having the electric vehicle fire burn itself out will have environmental impact in relation to what specific features of nature (ex: vegetation and nests) that unchecked electric vehicle fire ignites.
In other news, methane detected in volcanic water plumes on Saturn’s moon Enceladus suggests life on the moon in the form of dihydrogen eating methanogen bacteria similar to those in earth’s hydrothermal vents (where life likely originated here).
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/07/210706180905.htm