Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT for the rest, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held during early March.
The RBA’s March month monetary policy meeting matched wide market forecasts of no rate cut and an intact Quantitative Easing (QE). However, statements like “Board does not expect tight labor market, high wages growth until 2024 at the earliest,” seem to have teased AUD/USD bears off-late.
While traders are more inclined to look for more bearish clues, sustained rejection of the reflation fears, as recently done by RBA Governor Philip Lowe, can help the AUD/USD prices for a short-term term.
TD Securities considers the event as having importance while saying,
RBA Minutes from the RBA's Board Meeting will be scanned for any further details on the Bank's thinking around Yield Curve Control (YCC). This follows the Bank increasing the cost to short YCC bonds.
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
Although pre-Fed cautious sentiment and reflation fears are likely to be the major catalysts for near-term AUD/USD moves, traders will read minutes closely for signs of fears among the policymakers concerning the latest QE extension to weigh on the quote. Alternatively, any rejection to the price pressure and economic optimism should be compared to the market sentiment for cleared directions.
Technically, Monday’s Doji candlestick favors AUD/USD buyers to eye the 0.7800 threshold, while also looking at January tops near 0.7820 afterward. Alternatively, a 50-day SMA level of 0.7740 offers immediate support.
Key Notes
AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls remain side-lined
AUD/USD wobbles around mid-0.7700s ahead of RBA minutes
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.