A powerful ocean storm will have a big impact from Sunday into Monday in the region from British Columbia (Canada) to California. Map courtesy ECMWF (00Z Euro), tropicaltidbits.com
Guest post by Paul Dorian
Overview
One strong storm system has impacted the west coast states from Washington-to-California in the past 24 hours or so with significant rainfall, but an even stronger storm is likely have an impact from Sunday into Monday. In fact, this next storm could become the strongest system in many years to impact the region from British Columbia (Canada) to California. Rainfall will be excessive with this next storm, winds will be powerful and potentially damaging, and snow will pile up in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California. The upper-level support for this system is likely to then cross the country next week and that could result in a mid-week severe weather outbreak and a late week storm near the eastern seaboard.
Significant snow on the order of several feet is on the table from this upcoming storm across the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California. Map courtesy ECMWF (00Z Euro), pivotalweather.com
Details
Rain is falling today across many of the western states from California to Washington, but this is just the opening salvo in an overall weather pattern that will bring excessive rainfall to this same region from Sunday into Monday. After a break in the action from later tonight into Saturday, more rain will develop along the west coast on Sunday as a powerful storm system pushes towards British Columbia/Pacific Northwest. Some computer forecast models have projected central pressure of this developing storm system to bottom out near 940 millibars (27.76 inches) in coming days which would be some of the deepest readings seen in decades that close to the coastline of the Pacific Northwest.
Much of the western US has been experiencing “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions in recent weeks, but that is likely to change in a big way in coming days. Map courtesy NOAA/CPC
Some of the heaviest rainfall from this monster storm system is likely to take place across the northern half of California from Sunday into Monday where several inches can fall and localized flash flooding is a serious concern. Snow can pile up in this same time frame on the order of several feet across the higher elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada Mountain in eastern California. Strong and potentially damaging winds are likely to accompany this storm as well; especially, along the west coast of Washington which will be near the storm system when it reaches its lowest pressure. A couple of benefits from the expected rainfall will the filling of some of the lakes across the western states (e.g., Lake Shasta is ~25% full) and it would also stop any still on-going wildfire activity in its tracks; however, these will benefits may come at a steep price.
The upper-level support associated with the powerful late weekend storm will cross the country next week and take on a “negative-tilt” by the time it reaches the Mississippi Valley. This scenario could result in a mid-week severe weather outbreak including possible tornadoes across the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Upper Midwest. Map courtesy ECMWF (00Z Euro), tropicaltidbits.com
After slamming the west coast, this system will push into the Rocky Mountain States early next week with some rain and snow and then the upper-level support will push into the nation’s mid-section at mid-week and begin taking on a “negative tilt” (i.e., trough axis aloft becomes oriented from NW-to-SE). With such strong support aloft, a severe weather outbreak is on the table at mid-week including the threat of tornadoes in the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Upper Midwest. By late next week, the upper-level support associated with this powerful storm system will arrive in the eastern states and it could very well spawn a strong surface storm along the eastern seaboard…stay tuned.
Paul Dorian
Meteorologist
Dear me, not a mention of Gorbull Warming as being the reason.
Your grant cheque will bounce if you are not careful.
/s.
I’m glad I kept my snow shovel when I moved to Florida.
Surely you expect the experts to fill in the missing info.
It is looking like the cliche that the usual end to a drought is a flood.
Yup. Mother Nature’s ‘extremes’ are per usual over time just still same old average with no perceptible climate changes yet.
Still warming out of the LIA, only recent acceleration thanks to UHI or Mike’s Nature trick.
No sea level rise acceleration.
Arctic summer ice has NOT disappeared.
Glacier National Park still has glaciers.
How disappointing for COP26.
‘no perceptible climate changes yet.
Still warming out of the LIA…”
Is it both, or neither? Either way, indeed, indeed.
It is both
Steady move out of LIA, no AGW
You know that is what he meant so why be the language clown?
You’re trying to ‘splain’ this? Lol. If there is no perceptible change how can there be a peception of warming?
He’s full of s%#$. The so-called LIA was regional and in some places ended 5 centuries ago.
“during the Little Ice Age, minimum temperatures hit the eastern Pacific during the 15th century, northwestern Europe and southeastern North America during the 17th century, and most remaining regions during the mid-19th century. For the previous climate epochs, the spatial coherence is even less significant.”
“global temperatures haven’t been as high in the past 2,000 years and also that the increase has occurred simultaneously on 98% of Earth’s surface.”
https://eos.org/articles/the-little-ice-age-wasnt-global-but-current-climate-change-is
Only desperate, ABC zealots cling to the LIA ‘splaination as having any relationship whatsoever to modern AGW.
So if the LIA was “regional” and ended five centuries ago, why did it start warming back then? I didn’t know they drove SUVs back in the 1500s.
Are you saying the warming was natural and then suddenly stopped being natural in the 1950s. How did nature turn off it’s warming all of a sudden?
You need to get your story straight.
Why, over a period of six or eight thousand years, did Holocene temperature peak then cool? Milankovitch.
What modern driver has caused that to abruptly, simultaneously, globally reverse?
What modern driver? You don’t know and have no empirical proof of what the driver is, do you? (Remember: models aren’t proof).
Warming out of the LIA has happened, whilst the much predicted “climate chaos/breakdown/thermageddon” has failed to happen.
It’s not that hard to understand.
Rud,
Speaking of the upcoming Great Green High Mass (or mess) in Glasgow, what are the chances of this weather system crossing over to us in Scotland, to give us the Gore effect?
I’ve always said that in Australia you don’t need to worry about the bushfires, the floids will put them out. Apparently both are caused by the Magic Molecule ™, CO2.
1. Two years of below normal rainfall in CA … is NOT a “drought”.
2. The local meteorological mainstream media cannot STOP reminding us that this highly unusual EARLY, EARLY, heavy storm will in no way END California’s “drought”. Why? Because Gavin Newsom’s epic WASTE of $$ on “global warming” priorities MUST keep expanding. No … CA’s “epic drought” will NEVER end. Gavin says so.
“Normal rainfall” is as useless a term as “average temperature”.
There is a small rise in SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) but very rare for this time of the year, currently within few % points of maximum recorded for the date.
It rained almost all night long here in Northern California. The rain was moderately strong for most of that time.
That’s Global Warming for yer. More extreme moderate weather!
The same here at 900 feet, we got 2.0 inches and some strong gusts. There was no erosion, but the forecast for Sunday is 5 inches, which will probably wahs out parts of our gravel road…with too small culverts .
Good thing the Oroville spillway was repaired. Gonna maybe need it.
Beautiful timing to erase the California drought scare at COP26.
Of course, Kerry will pivot to proof of increasing weather extremes.
Alas, poor Kerry, weather is not climate. Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get.
Kerry would make a good Yorick skull—Hamlet, Act 5.
Not to worry.
California legislators and judges will flush all of that fresh water out to sea. For the sardines or something.
You know how they hate it when their globull warming scam keeps getting dumped by Nature.
So, they’ll flush the water out of the dams and have their extreme drought back by June next year.
“Beautiful timing to erase the California drought scare at COP26.”
Isn’t it, though! 🙂
I’ve been hearing about the drought all summer in western Colorado, apparently not in the west as we’re not in the map of the ‘West’ above. But being only 115 miles east of Utah, I measured 120% of normal for the past water year, 10/1/20-9/30/21.
There is a moderately severe drought in places for certain, though. Draw a line north-south through Wyoming about 20 miles west of Casper and the area to the west is quite dry, reservoirs are very low. To the east the region is normal to slightly above. It wouldn’t take but a wet autumn/winter or wet spring to rectify, but it is certainly dry.
Three weeks ago I drove through a lot of central and southern Colorado. The Uncompahgre plateau was dry and has been for some time, and reservoirs along US 50 and Colo 133 looked quite low even considering it is the end of the water year.
However, I have seen this situation in the west just about once per decade for the past 70 years. It is not extraordinary.
Forecast for October 25.
Any chance of one or more of these systems making their way to Glasgow in time for cop26?
“When the model started with the decreased solar energy and returned temperatures that matched the paleoclimate record, Shindell and his colleagues knew that the model was showing how the Maunder Minimum could have caused the extreme drop in temperatures. The model showed that the drop in temperature was related to ozone in the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that is between 10 and 50 kilometers from the Earth’s surface. Ozone is created when high-energy ultraviolet light from the Sun interacts with oxygen. During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun emitted less strong ultraviolet light, and so less ozone formed. The decrease in ozone affected planetary waves, the giant wiggles in the jet stream that we are used to seeing on television weather reports.”
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum
I expect Channel 4 are on their way to Nevada right now to prepare a retraction piece as Lake Mead fills up.
I’d like to see Lake Mead fill up – it’s where my water comes from, but the places that fill this lake may not see a big impact from this storm, and the impact will be in snow, so if there is a benefit it’ll show up next year. Looks like from 4-16 inches in the Lake Mead (Colorado River) drainage. An early storm for that much snow, but not highly unusual amounts. The West Coast is the big recipient.
This is wonderful news for COP26. Yet more confirmation that Climate Change is happening and is really, really bad.
Earth will be a truly wonderful place once humans stop burning fossil fuels. Perfect weather from then to eternity.
China’s current coal reserves are 149bn tonne and they are burning it at 4bn tonne per year. That gives 37 years. I hope they have a back-up plan that does not entail them commandeering Australia’s significant reserves.
One enterprising company in Australia has accelerated their US coal exports to help fill the gap left by China’s embargo on Australia’s thermal coal. USA must be on better terms with China than Australia since USA got rid of Trump.
D EFINITIONS OF MINERAL RESERVES, resources, resource potential, and certainty of assessment . . .
sta13.pdf (usgs.gov)
Exciting reading for a damp weekend.
“since USA got rid of Trump”
He’ll be back! 🙂
The latest poll shows Trump with 78 percent approval from Republicans.
Trump is pulling 50,000 people to his monthly political rallies.
Trump is starting up his own Social Media platform. The stock of the company doing this went up 1600 percent in the last few days.
(See: https://peternavarro.com/the-navarro-report/ )
2. And, YES, Tom H! 🙂 Not only did Trump win in 2020, TRUMP WILL WIN in 2024. And, Deo volente, the vote rigging goblins will fail to thwart the People’s will.
LOL, in less than 2 years, the Demonocrats have handed the Republicans enough horror stories to win the next election 20 times over. Border Nightmare — Lockdown Insanity — Monster Port Crisis — BLM Bigot Parades and the CRT Creep Show — Afghanistan…. and I did not list them all.
Hi, Janice! 🙂
“LOL, in less than 2 years, the Demonocrats have handed the Republicans enough horror stories to win the next election 20 times over.”
Isn’t that the truth!
Let’s see the Leftwing Media try to hide all this stuff! They are trying, but they are getting overwhelmed. Even Saturday Night Live is starting to make fun of Biden’s dementia and his administration’s actions.
Hi, Tom 🙂
Heh. Dementia Joe has put a lot of comedy writers out of work. Who needs them?
Thank you, so much, for taking the time to cheer up my day with a friendly greeting.
Take care.
Janice
Keeping my fingers crossed for some rain here in North Central Texas. Stock tanks are getting a bit low
I heard this afternoon on the radio, here in Western Washington, that the storm is now not expected to come ashore.
Oh my! A large storm! Must be Climate Vhange…again.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1451558058115616771
Weather once again makes liars of the climate doomsayers. The west was not in a drought, it was just an interlude between the very wet winters of 2017-2019 and what is shaping up to be a nice rain year. As Orleans said in their 1976 song, Golden State: “Your season’s always summer, except for driving rain…”. It takes all kinds of weather to come up with climate.
I just heard a weatherman claim California had been in drought “forever”.
I guess forever to this guy means four years.
Is this storm worse because of climate change?
I can answer
Supposed to get an inch here in calgary over next 24 hours from that previous system
Wonder what the next one does
Certainly could use the rain here, drought year
Nice wetting before freeze up helps the plants and trees
So every big storm is an EXTREME weather event now? I’ve lived in N.CA for 66 years … and large storms are NORMAL weather. Same with the so-called 2-year “drought”. Here in CA .. 2-years of “below average” precipitation is NOT a drought. It’s NORMAL. You DO know there is no uniform time-period or precipitation definition of a “drought”.
Am I a meteorologist ? No. But I have a lifetime’s experience to help me discern gloabal warmist hype from reality.
Yes, it will be quite something if the Sierra sees 7 inches of rain in 24 hours. But at the end of the day … it will be a large storm … NOT EXTREME weather. And can someone tell KTVU’s meteorologists and “expert” commentators to STOP telling us that these very unusual EARLY storms do NOT mean the “drought” is over!? The global warming caused CA “drought” ISN’T OVER they chirp. Your sinful home heating and cooking with gas is still killing CA! Pay no attention to all the water, mud, and shiny green leaves … your SINS are killing CA.
Gawd, this whole charade is so tiresome
Oh, Maaaaaama! 🙂
This is normal weather for us here in the huge pine forests of Central Idaho.
By law we wait to burn our fire wood cutting slash piles until after Oct 20 as this is when the weather cools and the rains come and it’s safe to light fires to burn logging slash piles and not worry about starting a raging forest fire.
We’ve had a lovely 24 hours of gentle rain accumulating about 50mm and will have 50-75mm more over the next three days.
Thankfully it’s 5C or else I’d have a meter of fresh snow to deal with by Sunday
I like to burn my woodpiles right after we get a nice rain.
If there is drought it is global warming, if there are floods it is global warming, if a stray song bird so much as shows up in the wrong county it is global warming.
The only kind of weather that doesn’t come from global warming is when the exact average amount from the last 30 years falls in the exact right places at the exact right time.
Meanwhile, weather just keeps happening… They ought to pass a law or something.
It’s going to take more than a few heavy rains to fill the reservoirs that feed SoCal but they will as always. Talk of drought will cease and mudslides will increase. The MSM narrative will change in synch with the seasons, such as they are in SoCal. Life will continue as usual unless you believe the media.
Poated this over a week ago. Western reversal well forecasted We forecast for interest out there and have been saying since August fall would get very wet. No surprise
this was from Oct 1
tried to post graphics, not working but showed tweets from Oct 1 and 14 on the matter addressed here.
“Western reversal well forecasted”
What is a western reversal?
The polar vortex is blocked in the upper stratosphere. This is very unusual for this time of year. Still very high galactic radiation promises an unusual winter in the northern hemisphere.
Gee, it looks like I may miss my PTA meeting, during which Critical Race Theory was to be discussed.
Would that still be relevant with global cooling arriving so soon this year?
Snow is racist.
So is lava….
“…and snow will pile up in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in eastern California.” – quote that means more volume in the watershed, right? So, despite all the politics and squawking by the Greenbeaners, things are actually normal.
In re: possible bad weather here in the Midwest, this morning’s weather radar map for the area indicated (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan) showed frost (blue) and freeze (purple) warnings for the upper Midwest, including my AO, and the temp at 5AM was 34F. REally glad to see something NORMAL!!!
Early snow? BRING IT!!!!! Farmers will still be out in the fields running those big ol’ combines to get grain to the markets, and planting winter wheat so that the city folks can have carbohydrates on their dinner tables. If we have late-season tornadoes, I will post that, too.
Oh, yeah – one of Japan’s volcanoes has erupted, so will that have any effect on the weather we get down the road? Just askin’. Being a skeptic is fun.
There is a good chance that the reservoirs in California will fill up within the next seven days.
Excellent! Thank you! After a brief drought in the late spring, it finally rained and kept on raining, and the green returned. Then in August, we had two weeks (where I am) with no rain at all, and finally, the rains returned. This year’s weather has been erratic, ditto down south in the corn and soybean fields. Lack of rainfall affects the price of food at the store, which hits you in the pockets when you shop.
Don’t know what the excuse is for rising prices right now, but is possibly linked to all those container ships trying to dock at the Port of Los Angeles and get stuff to consumers. I am hearing occasional references to “empty shore shelves again” on the morning news, but not like it was a year ago.
I went to two Walmarts and a Kroger and couldn’t find any regular size canning lids. My local Meijer had six packs, I got three…
In case anyone is interested there is a weather website that is above most when it comes to ease of understanding. I have been using it as a sailor for several years and it is my go to site, especially wind. Called “Windy” you can see it here: https://www.windy.com/?43.215,-124.198,5
That’s going to be inconvenient for the gangs of Portland and Tacoma. Starting fires will be more difficult.
We’ll see.
I’m not mortgaging the farm based on the forecast of a meteorologist.
Could it possibly change direction and drench Scotland for the next week !!!! “Global warming ?????
The low in the upper troposphere has settled into the Gulf of Alaska. This is supported by a renewed decrease in solar wind speed (increase in GCR to over 6700 counts at Oulu).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=ak&product=wv-mid
Tomorrow will see the heaviest rainfall in California.
So I see drought levels are sort of like olive sizes. You never see anything smaller than jumbo in the supermarket, and the scale goes up in 7 more steps up to Super Mammoth.
Lincoln set the precedent that no state can leave the union voluntarily, but is it impossible for the other 49 states to just kick California out?
San Francisco and Los Angeles look to be on track to suffer the fates of Sodom and Gomorrah. Is there any reason the rest of us have to be tarnished with their… um, their… stigmata?
Shasta lake is beginning to fill.
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/dynamicapp/QueryF?s=SHA&d=24-Oct-2021+14:50&span=12hours
The level was down to 882.63 feet at 5:00 PDT on 10/24/21. But by 6:00 PDT there was a large inflow of 53864 CFS as heavy rains started sending water down the rivers and into the lake. By 13:00PDT on 10/25/21 the level was up to 885.28. That’s 2.65 feet in 32 hours.
So the reservoir is doing what it is supposed to do. They drain it down during the dry season to provide needed water for people and agriculture. Then during heavy rains the dam diverts water into the lake instead of letting it rush downstream causing flooding. Hopefully they’ll get enough rain to refill the lake in time for the next dry season.
Was the Madden Julian oscillation responsible?