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Opinion

Democrats' best chance to beat Donald Trump is with nominee who energizes party's voters in base fight with GOP

Democratic candidates for president need to electrify their base voters in order to beat Trump.

The 2020 presidential election — highlighted by potential impeachment — is a referendum on Donald Trump's behavior as president.

That means an already divided country will takes sides, with the few Americans who describe themselves as independent voters in the middle.

In 2016, Trump won independent voters in key swing states, and they could play a role in next year's showdown.

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But for the most part the presidential election will be a gritty base fight won by the campaign and political party that drags the most voters to the polls.

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All other issues, including health care, guns and education, are props in the great horse race.

The 2020 election is not about voter persuasion, it's about the turnout of voters who are already in the fold.

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That's what Democrats should have in mind when they search for a champion to knock off Trump and avenge the 2016 election. And Republicans should also understand that the path to victory is getting conservatives back out to the polls, assuming that by November 2020 most conservatives will still back the president.

On the Democratic Party side, former Vice President Joe Biden has topped the polls since he's been running for the nomination. Part of his appeal is the theory that he can restore the Democrats' Midwestern blue wall by winning back working class voters in Michigan and Wisconsin, states that remarkably chose Trump in 2016.

But the best chance Democrats have of beating Trump is nominating a candidate who can energize critical components of the party's base.

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Hillary Clinton lost to Trump not just because some working class white voters and white women abandoned her, but also due to her inability to motivate enough African American voters in key states to go to the polls.

That was a departure from 2008 and 2012, when Barack Obama built a coalition that was powered by a high turnout from black voters. In 2008, he married that support with independent and soft Republicans. Four years later the coalition held.

Sure, winning over some white voters dissatisfied with Trump could lead to victory, but the surefire way to compete with the incumbent president is to have a candidate that appeals to voters who were inspired by Obama.

Are the Trump challengers up to it?

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 04: Democratic U.S. presidential candidate and former Vice...
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 04: Democratic U.S. presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden laughs at the SEIU Unions for All Summit on October 4, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. Eight Democratic Presidential candidates were scheduled to speak today and tomorrow at the summit. The presidential primary in California will be held on March 3, 2020. (Mario Tama / Getty Images)

The candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination appeal the party's base in different ways.

Biden often mentions the relationship he developed with Obama when he was vice president and leads in the polls because he's familiar to voters. If he's going to beat Trump, Biden has to be more than a symbol from the Obama era. He must develop his own brand, one that electrifies voters.

Other candidates have positives and negatives.

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is drawing big crowds and her rallies are probably the hottest ticket in the Democratic Party field.

Some analysts predict that Warren's proposals, like Medicare for All and an end to private insurance, may be too progressive to beat Trump.

But her biggest challenge is expanding beyond her base of mostly white voters. If she can't improve her standing with African Americans, it could prove problematic in a general election matchup against Trump.

Presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren speaks at a town hall meeting at Waterfront Park in...
Presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren speaks at a town hall meeting at Waterfront Park in San Diego on October 3, 2019. (K.C. Alfred / San Diego Union-Tribune)
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Most of the candidates in the field have a similar problem, including Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas. They all need to expand their coalitions.

Sen. Kamala Harris of California says she can prosecute the case against Trump, but that won't happen unless she can broaden her candidacy as well.

Trump's playbook is similar to his 2016 effort. He knows he has strong support with conservative voters, as well as silent approval from a set of voters who like him but won't admit it in public or to pollsters.

And there's power in being the incumbent, even in the storm of awful publicity.

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The impeachment process, no matter how far it goes, will motivate Trump supporters and his opponents.

For Democrats, there are enough anti-Trump voters to have a shot at winning an Electoral College election, but they need a candidate who can compel the base to rally around their nominee in a watershed contest.