TOPLINE
Yet another sign showing the state of Texas trending away from Republicans and moving toward Democrats revealed itself with Tuesday’s Democratic U.S. Senate runoff, which shattered the old voter-turnout record, and more than doubled the turnout for the 2018 gubernatorial runoff, as Joe Biden has started pouring money into Texas in the hopes of becoming the first Democratic candidate to carry the delegate-rich state in decades.
Democratic presidential candidate and former vice president Joe Biden speaks at a community event ... [+]
KEY FACTS
The Texas Secretary of State is reporting that 955,735 Texans voted in the Democratic Senate runoff—far surpassing the old runoff record of 746,641 votes set back in 1994.
Polling shows President Donald Trump running neck and neck with Biden in Texas; the RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump with only a 0.2-percentage-point lead.
Biden and Democrats are seeing opportunity in Texas, and Biden recently launched his first TV ad in the state.
John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Texas, may face his toughest campaign yet against a Democrat, as he seeks a fourth term in the Senate, but he has a stronger lead than Trump does in the state.
Cornyn leads MJ Hegar, who narrowly won Tuesday’s election, by about ten points in the RealClearPolitics polling average, and predictions from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both place the Senate race in their “likely Republican” column.
A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t carried Texas since 1976, and the state hasn’t had a Democrat in the U.S. Senate since 1993.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Turning Texas blue could be a game changer for future presidential elections. The state has been the biggest Republican electoral stronghold for decades. Texas had the second-most Electoral College votes, behind only California, and with a quickly growing population, Texas will likely have even more electoral votes after the 2020 Census.
CRITICAL QUOTE
“In the middle of a pandemic, Texas Democrats showed we are ready to win with nearly a million Texans doing whatever it takes to have their voice heard. We broke the Texas Democratic record for turnout in a runoff election, more than doubling our 2018 runoff turnout,” Texas Democratic Party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said in a statement.
KEY BACKGROUND
The Senate runoff was a tightly contested race between Hegar, an Air Force veteran, and Royce West, a Dallas-based state senator. Hegar ended up winning by a margin of 52.1% to 47.9%. The record turnout for the race continues a trend showing Democrats performing better in Texas. In 2016, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Texas by only a single-digit margin in 20 years. In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) narrowly won reelection over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, by a vote tally of 50.9% to 48.3%. And in May, the state’s Democratic Party convention set a new fundraising record.
TANGENT
Many of the votes in the election had to be cast in person Tuesday. The Texas Democratic Party had sought to expand vote by mail in the state for the election, but the U.S. Supreme Court denied that effort.
FURTHER READING
Biden Goes Up With His 1st Ad In Texas, Where Polls Show A Close Race (NPR)
Texas Democratic Party Shatters Fundraising Record (Forbes)
U.S. Supreme Court declines Texas Democrats' request to allow all Texans to vote by mail (Texas Tribune)
