Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Their models tell them the end of the world is nigh…
Climate change evacuation planning needs to start now, scientists urge
By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
From Bangladesh to the Philippines and the low-lying islands of the South Pacific, the impacts of climate change for many people around the world are going to get much worse, very soon.
Key points
- Preparing now can prevent last-minute disorderly evacuation from climate impacts
- Building in areas that will be hit by climate disasters in future needs to stop
- Millions are expected to be displaced by the end of the century
Some people will become stateless, and will need to find homes in new countries, while others will need to relocate within their own borders.
Researchers writing in Science today argue that it’s time to begin preparing the retreat of people living in regions that will become uninhabitable due to climate change.By preparing now we can manage retreat in as equitable a way possible, and minimise paternalism and disruption to culture, according to author AR Siders from the Disaster Research Centre at the University of Delaware.
“People need to think about it right now,” Dr Siders said.
…
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-23/climate-retreat-planning-science/11435382
Back in the real world, countries like New Zealand, which generously offers residency to people in allegedly climate afflicted areas, is struggling to fill their quota.
From the Kiribati refugee story in 2015;
…
Mr Kidd sees politics in the mix. There are potentially hundreds of millions of people in low-lying areas that could be affected by sea level rises. He wonders if wealthy countries fear that cases like Mr Teitiota’s could turn climate migration from a trickle to a raging torrent.
But there hasn’t been a dramatic exodus just yet. The New Zealand immigration department sets aside 75 places a year in a lottery for migrants from Kiribati, and at the moment it can’t fill them.President Anote Tong suggests that is because things aren’t desperate enough yet.
…
Read more: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34674374
Its kindof sad when you see otherwise intelligent people in my opinion in the grip of groupthink so impervious to reason or evidence, that they say things which make perfect sense from their perspective, but which reveal their utter disconnect from reality to the rest of us.
Chicken Lickenism, the newest “science” in town. Come one, come all; wear your costumes to the Doomsday Ball.
Time to start a large scale evacuation of models?
Time to start a large scale evacuation of climate modellers. Send them to Bangladesh for field work.
The problems of Bangladesh have little to do with “climate change”. Darwinian selection will sort out which populations are capable of managing river deltas as a life sustaining environment. The “cultures” of those which fail should not be protected.
Chicken Lickenism??? Chicken Littleism maybe?
Okay I have a plan – let’s practice.
Begin: AAAAHHH!!!! AAAAAAHHHHH!!! EVERYBODY RUN!!! AIEEEEEEE!!!!
That concludes the plan, and this concludes the practice. Thank you.
I like CDS (Climate Derangement Syndrome).
What is the presumed greatest “threat” to Kiribati Pacific islands? Presumable rising seas, which Time mag recently featured in a story with the UN secretary standing there in the ocean.
Problem is that recent actual studies have shown the great majority of these islands, especially the larger inhabited ones, are either rising or not shrinking from sea rise.
Another example of the hype disagreeing with the evidence.
Folks some people believe that there is no climate emergency and some believe the world is flat or the moon is made of cheese. But over 95% of climate scientists believe that human induced climate change is very rapidly changing our world. The other scientists and commentators are employed by big oil or coal as lobbyists. Esso knew back in the 80’s that human burning of fossil fuels would cause climate change,but inorder to protect their business interests they ran disinformation campaigns from bogus think tanks.
And Obama just bought a $14M waterfront mansion on Martha’s Vineyard. Any questions? Don’t listen to what they SAY, watch what they DO.
This is the guy who peed on your foot for 8 years and told you not only that it was raining, it was all your fault because “climate change!”
Sounds like the girl who peed on the dance floor .
It damped down the party .
Helmuth, you have just parroted the standard talking points of alarmism laced with disinformation. I don’t even know where to begin.
You need to catch up on some reading/ learning.
Do you live like the cave men did Helmuth.
Obviously not .
You have a computer ,What powers it ,
Oh you have car .
What you fly by jet plane .
Crawl back into your cave
.Sorry you don’t live in a cave .
You live in a mansion
Get real use your brain
Where would you be without fossil fuel .
If you believe there is a climate emergency you need help ,
@Helmuth Osborne, August 25, 2019 at 6:35 a.m., I have an exercise for you that might even improve your logic faculties and certainly won’t hurt: find evidence to back up anything you said. Computer model outputs are not evidence. Don’t forget everything requires confirmation and corroboration, an editorial letter all by itself means nothing, it doesn’t matter where it’s published. Multiple editorial letters all saying the same thing don’t make any of them more reliable. As I see it, there is no evidence to support anything you said.
Are you sure these “scientists” aren’t playing one of those highly addictive FB video games about “survival” and then confusing it with reality ? I can see no other rational explanation for their obvious disconnect…
if we listened to “their models”….we would be dead by now
…it’s really sick when all you see is the bad things
No, the models I have read articles on consistently say that problems will be very bad by 2050, with a lot bigger problems following thereafter. To say “today is clear skies” as a counterargument is picking apart a strawman.
And those same models 10, 20, and 30 years ago all said we’d be toast by now. The models are created with proxies, and the models are created to forecast what agenda-biased people think is going to happen. Even current weather forecasting models are based on the past. When a forecaster says there’s a 20% of rain, he or she isn’t saying he or she has 20% certainty. What is being said is when these similar conditions have happened in past, it resulted in rain 20% of those occurrences.
To paraphrase, it is difficult to convince someone that something is true when their livelihood depends upon its being false.
This is great! I am all for it.
First off are all these nutcases then maybe some sanity will return to Mother Earth.
Chicken Little comes to mind…The Sky Is Falling!
I think this kind of story is as old as the hills, and there is nothing new under the Sun. There is always going to be fodder for weather related disaster because it is reality, there is always something wrong with the weather and climate somewhere and now that we have real time connectivity to everywhere at once, we are now on steroids with our global aware omnipresent technology. This week the Amazon, next week it will be something else, and we will never run out of material for this never ending crisis. But yet the world goes on.
Yeah, I tell people much the same on a regular basis. The 24-second news cycle distorts our reality. 30 years ago, there could have been an F5 tornado five miles away in a farmer’s field and no one but the farmer would have known about it. Today, I can sit on a toilet in Billings, MT and get data of pinpoint lightning strikes in Miami, FL. Exceptional knowledge and live streams don’t mean ANY of this is unprecedented. I’ve recently noticed news agencies now quote climate info as coming from “a study.”
Well, I do think that we should encourage these prognosticators to fund development of hyperlight space travel, so that those who are threatened – emotionally, mentally, etc. – by climate change and/or fear of it can migrate to another planet and leave the rest of us alone.
I have, in fact, come up with the perfect place: Bimballa is an Earth-like planet that is facing a volcanic winter because a chain of five volcanoes has come online and is erupting ferociously, casting ash dispersions into the air. Bimballa is awash in megafauna such as deinotherium and giant fishing birds very much like Pelagornis sandersei, and some very oddball monotremes that look like six-legged horses, so there’s plenty of protein available for incoming migrants. Bimballa orbits a Sol-type star, in the Goldilocks zone, about 3,000 LY from Earth. Plenty of trees to build housing, too. They’ll be fine.
All they have to do is build a hyperlight ship that will take them there. Then the rest of us can go back to our peaceful, productive lives. ( Yes, it’s my invention, and I’m happy with it.)
Surely you’re not suggesting the emigrants eat meat? No, they must set a good example for those of us left behind and adhere to the edict they handed down prior to their exodus: plant protein only. Also they must get around on all fours and sleep in trees.
It is very meet and right to do so…
In the name of pancakes with butter and maple syrup, Amen.
They’ll probably take all the soybeans they can grab with them and find out how hard it is to plant enough soybeans to feed their empty tummies. It would be a joy to watch them struggling to make such things grow.
Aren’t they talking about preparing places on Earth for a mass migration? Not leaving the planet.
Anthony has a sense of humor.
An article highlighting the crisis of hundreds of millions of people needing to be evacuated, directly follows an article on Exoplanets.
Just a coincidence.
And the Obama’s buying a house barely above high water.
Who is the Anthony to whom you refer, and what had he to do with this coincidence?
Having a sense of humor is a favorite character trait — just saying.
Who posted the article? Not Anthony.
Special evacuation plans should be generated for B. Obama (a retired U.S. government employee) whose family recently (and improvidently) purchased a residence at Martha’s Vineyard, United States which is no more than 200 meters from the Atlantic Ocean and no more than two meters above (current) sea level. This property can be expected to be underwater in less than twenty years.
Yes, 97% of scientists say his house will be under water in 20 years! 🙂
20 years? Really? With current sea level rise of less than 3 mm per year (almost the same as the average of the last 150 years) it would probably last about 700 years before there is a 2 meter rise. Add another 700 years before the property is underwater. By then, no one will even remeber who Obama was.
Its actually about 1.5 mm per year based on tide gauges. Based on geological evidence, this has been the rate of sea level rise for the past 6,000 years. See https://www.jcronline.org/doi/full/10.2112/03-0123.1
You are right, using the tide gauge data it would even last twice as long.
I only wanted to object to the 20 years suggestion, which sounded very alarmistic although RNB surely did not mean i that way.
Obama who?
Obama who?
Is there a hurricane headed that way this year?
If the climate is going to change a lot. why not plan to evacuate people to the Steppes of Russia, Siberia and Alaska? These will surely be prime real estate when the weather gets hotter, and they are very sparsely populated at the moment.
Anyone want to join me in buying a few hundred square miles around the Bering Sea? It will be the new Med….
Be careful not to cause a walrus stampede.
I don’t know, Dodgy, I think I will stick to reality and head South to buy some prime Equatorial land to ride out the next 100,000-year-long Glacial Period.
Don’t forget to buy that “Brain in a Vat” kit, so you can live that long.
To me, it sounds like an advertisement for the Mars journeys from Elon Musk (SpaceX)
Let’s take Miami Beach, Florida, where the streets were laid out in 1916 below king tide.
Sea level (and subsidence) has been occurring at a constant rate since then.
Residents could be forgiven for not noticing that slight increase for 80 years, but in 1996 Al Gore gave them clear and fair warning.
None of those waterfront residents are poverty stricken, ignorant or immobile (many of whom moved there from NYC). I have not yet noticed a significant migration to the inland mountains of Alabama or Georgia. /sarc
People, poor or wealthy will move when actual evidence is observed at their location.
On the other hand, if a government (say India) enriches itself with development from fossil fuels , it may have the resources to relocate the poverty stricken from areas that historically have been hit by floods or hurricanes; but that is not related to “Climate Change” and does not require Global governance or planning.
Anyone else notice that the very people who rant against “colonialism”, are the most paternalistic?
The Libs need more votes:
“Some people will become stateless, and will need to find homes in new countries…”
How about just sending them to another planet, instead? Lots of empty real estate on Mars.
Well I guess there’s no more believing they don’t really believe it.
There goes the neighborhood.
I think part of being intelligent is being able to decipher reality from your available senses. “Otherwise intelligent” people are probably well trained in memorizing something they read or hear and then repeating it. It’s like confusing narrow artificial intelligence for real intelligence.
“according to author AR Siders from the Disaster Research Centre at the University of Delaware.”
Here’s the problem right now. A disaster research boffin can’t just sit there waiting for disaster on a fine summer day with temperatures actually still below 1930s record highs. Someone might notice and he may end up the lead budget cut. A lot of the recent hysteria arises because of a plethora of “A55-in-a-Sling” climate halloo departments, responders, bean counters with nothing to do having been blind sided by a 2 decade Global Pause in temperature rise during which CO2 galloped 30% higher.
Oh they wrought a patch of this career threatening development out of ship bucket/nighttime sea-air/ whatever-comes-to-hand temperature manufacturing technology on the eve of retirement of NOAAs wroughter-in-chief.
I think we are on the eve of a new pandemic of “Climate Blues”, first occasioned by the “Dreaded Pause” that a decade ago took out a large number of career climateers . They know that the developing economies are building hundreds, perhaps thousands of coal fired electricity plants and CO2 in the atmosphere is going to test their faltering theory big time. They also know the wonderful molecule is ushering in a “Garden of Eden Earth” with, so far an 18% increase in “leafing out”. How can they stand it?
This is just an excuse to stop spending money on flood defences. Fairbourne in Wales is being threatened by this nonsense:
https://manicbeancounter.com/2016/02/14/blighting-of-fairbourne-by-flawed-report-and-bbc-reporting/
I wonder what the population of Holland will think about being “relocated”. I think they’ll say no and build up their dykes.
surely it would be the excuse for the vijfde Engelse oorlog?
100+ years of tide gauge relative sea level data has been collected at Newlyn right near Fairbourne. 1.8 mm/year average and 3.8mm/year recently (potentially due to decadal cycles seen in the data 1926, 1950, 1980 similar rates). .4 to .7mm/year due to gps measured subsidence. Even at the high rate only 7.5” in 50 years. For this they are decommisioning the town!
Great history of the newlyn tide gauge below
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01490419.2015.1121175
I live where there is wine production and a lot of palm trees. If I move to the frozen tundra of northern Yukon, where the land is really cheap, how long do I have to wait before grapes grow and palm trees arrive? I´m 73 so I hope it is not too long. Should I take my golf clubs with me?
No golf allowed. That’s a waste of water and vineyard land.
You should definitely make it a round trip ticket.
With each installment of stupid claims, these idiots never fail to deliver.
Even if alarmist predictions came true, I’m pretty sure people could evacuate at speed greater than many mosses grow, which is how fast sea levels might rise. No need for advanced planning.
Sadly, some act upon their hysteria.
In the 1950s, the crowd’s focus was on nuclear war and the necessary evacuation from cities. Vancouver’s Granville Street Bridge is a main traffic artery and the south exits include a clover-leaf ramp. The inner part of the loop was empty space and some zealots raised some money and purchased three semi-trailers. Which were converted with seats for passengers. This was going to evacuate a population of them some 400,000 downtown people.
In the 1840s, a charismatic preacher named Miller had a personal vision that the world was going to end. With a great conflagration. The movement became hysterical, spreading through most of the eastern States and parts of England.
Based upon elaborate calculations, the date was October 22, 1844.
Many of the true believers sold their belongings, Miller sold them “Ascension Gowns”.
When October 22nd came and went with only the leaves coming off the trees, the failure day was described as the “Great Disappointment”.
Bob H., I was in the first grade in Los Angeles during the early 50’s, and the atomic bomb scare was very bad. There were special alarms everywhere, and when they went off all of us kids were supposed to get underneath our desks and curl up in a special way so you could kiss your ass good-bye. These practice alarms were upsetting to almost everyone.
Don’t know about this. Maybe the best thing is to put people like these to work doing something that will shut them up and do no harm at the same time. Drawing up unneeded plans for an imaginary crisis would keep them off the street, and hopefully out of a teaching career. Tell them to start making the plans, and don’t call us, we’ll call you when we need them.
I would suggest looking at China. I have read that they have built entire cities that have yet to be populated.
More proof man-made climate change is a junk science Big Lie..
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the state can shield the people from the political, economic, and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the state to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the state.” – Joseph Goebbels
i think they should start today as long as la and new york city go first.
From the article: “From Bangladesh to the Philippines and the low-lying islands of the South Pacific, the impacts of climate change for many people around the world are going to get much worse, very soon.”
What impacts?
I think they are assuming too much. They are assuming the Earth’s climate is already being negatively affected by CO2 and it will be much worse in the future because of our increasing the levels of CO2.
But, there is no evidence on which to base their assumption that CO2 is doing anything damaging right now, so there is certainly no evidence for their prediction of even worse effects in the future.
All this climate alarmism is based on an unsubstantiated claim that CO2 will detrimentally affect the Earth’s atmosphere. All this climate alarmism is pure speculation based on nothing but other speculation.
CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) has no established foundation. There is the greenhouse gas theory, but CO2 doesn’t act alone in the atmosphere, there are feedbacks which might negate most or all of any CO2 warming of the atmosphere. Noone can say this has been ruled out as a possiblity. That demonstrates how little understanding we have of the basic mechanisms involved. Yet we get all these horrifying disaster claims based on nothing more than this.
And the only other thing CAGW has as a foundation is the fraudulent Hockey Stick global surface temperature chart that doesn’t agree with unmodified historical charts or with the UAH satellite chart.
CAGW has a foundation of pure speculation. Then we get thousands of studies like this one building on this speculation, and none of them are based on any established facts. What a fiasco! A very expensive fiasco.
Sorry to have to say it, but Australia has the dumbest eco muts on the planet by a massive margin.
The Guardian are even implying Peter Ridd is taking money from sugar cane industry to attack reef science.
that govvy minister for environment popped up there a week or so ago and said the reef looked rather good..it DID get some msm cover but not for too long.
but I have noticed the reefgrief crap eased off noticeably.
except for egtup avaaz n greenp*ss
Keying off the above article’s graphic, I put much less credibility on the urgent need to evacuate Earth for the reason of future climate change than I do on needing such evacuation to facilitate the Vogons’ intergalactic hyperspace express route construction project.
Who do you reckon will profit from abandoning all this land? Who will profit from all the new building to resettle these people? How much will end jump being government xontrolled?
Makes one sad to see how badly the little folks will be hurt by something that won’t even occur.
All these “very soons” are beginning to pile up . I have my snorkel ready and await the impending
Atlantean sea level cataclysm with equanimity. No …still not happening…
Humans could develop webbed feet, cat’s eyes and gills to deal with global warming | Daily Mail Online
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3396624/Webbed-feet-cat-s-eyes-gills-Features-just-humans-evolve-deal-water-world-global-warming-second-ice-age.html
“Webbed feet, cat’s eyes and gills: Features are just some that humans could evolve to have to deal with a ‘water world’ due to global warming
Experts predicts some genetic changes could take place quickly
For example, some humans already have a mutation that causes webbing
A layer in the retina may develop to help us see in poor light under water
Our noses and face size would increase to help warm inhaled cold air in the nasopharynx, the area behind the nose”
The UN wants those Pacific Islands vacated and turned over to UN for “care.” They want the EEZ fishing rights around those islands which because of the vast nature of some of the islands chains, consists of a lot of ocean.
China really wants all those islands in the Pacific, if the UN doesn’t. And the residents of those islands will probably accept both the bad science of CAGW and the bribes/loans of China and then they will lose their very nice real estate in the South Pacific. And probably their freedom too.
and you can bet theres oil gas or rare earth mineral;s etc in the areas there , which is why chinas also on the other islands apaert from “defence of shipping”
how overjoyed will the suckered islanders be when tourism vanishes and so do the handouts
and the mining begins ruining the seabed and reefs etc
almost wish it would happen for the sh*ts n giggles
Fortunately, no evacuation plans” for Germany in 1986
I walk down by the beach nearly every day for the past 20 years. Have not noticed the sea getting any closer to the shore. Think I’ll stay put for a while.
If the whole planet is going to be dead in 12 years or less, shouldn’t they be planning to leave the entire planet, not just move from one place to another? I think we should let our liberal friends, who are most concerned about this, get first dibs on leaving the planet. One way, of course.
I second and heartily support that idea!!!
About the creeping terror of sea level rise… figuratively depicted in this movie trailer from 1964.
Starting at about 43 seconds in, some commentary: Dimwit from fly-over country on the left, Liberal activist with PhD on the right. Followed by a couple so distracted the guy forgot they were still in the front seat and the keys were still in the ignition. Then topped off with a demonstration of military intelligence.
Some one call Leonard Pinth Garnell!
That is some delightfully bad cinema.
Not very good at all!
But didn’t Hollywood already say it was too late?
We should have built this stuff by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_(film)
Like many, I can witness in any court that damaged by climate refugiees exist.
We fly them twice a day from the cold grip of winter to sunny warmer locations.
Unfortunately they have to come back to the cold and work hard to pay taxes and climate related taxes.
In perspective; this equates to grandparents making changes in 1919 that someone predicted to year 2000. The millennium Y2K pending disaster perhaps.
Fortunately most of our grandparents were far more common sense bound. Nor did their children suffer similar end of the century fears during the 40s-50s.
Their 3rd to 5th line of descendents are the ones who started believing that they have the right to make decisions for their descendents 80 years into the future.
It takes some truly delusional people to believe this tripe about bad models predicting future acceleration of sea level rise.
Most of the Pacific Islands are actually growing is size, not shrinking. Tuvalu, site of a recent Climate-Money Fest increased 3% in a decade. These Alarmists and Warmistas are impervious to facts and have moved out of sight of reality.
Is there anywhere on Earth humans have found to be ‘uninhabitable’?
With sufficient energy (fossil/nuclear) we have managed to live in many of the most extreme environments.
If these idiots wish to save some lives, build some fossil-fuelled generation in the poorest nations where millions are already living in disastrous conditions
The thing about Bangladesh is that it is a delta at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers. These rivers carry silt from the Himalayas until they reach the Sea of Bengal, where they deposit the silt at sea level.
The delta is thus always at sea level. Even when the earth’s oceans were 450+ feet lower at the LGM, the Ganges et al delta was at sea level. It wasn’t a giant plateau towering above the crashing waves 450 feet below.
If the oceans rise 50, 100, or 200 feet, Bangladesh will still be at sea level. Delaware may be submerged, but not Bangladesh.
Perhaps Dr. Siders and other disasterists at the UD Centre in Newark (ironic name) should evacuate to Bangladesh where they will be safe from rising sea levels.
There is a cunning plan here build the spaceship and put all the true climate believers in it and send them on their way to save humanity. It will cost less than most of their proposals and you cant hear whining in space.
“It will cost less than most of their proposals and you cant hear whining in space.”
Yes, we can build them one heck of a spaceship for $5 Trillion dollars. That $5 Trillion is much less than what the lunatics want to spend on fixing the Earth’s climate, so it’s a win-win situation in that we save many Trillions of dollars and we rid ourselves of these delusional alarmists. Plus, we can make back that $5 Trillion in short order since we won’t have the socilaists putting the brakes on the economy anymore. 🙂
I question the credentials of anyone who does not know the difference between weather and climate.
“Building in area that will be hit by climate disasters in the future needs to stop.”
This is a multilayered mélange of idiocy on steroids, with a generous frosting of totally uncalled for doomsday panic mongering.
In the first place, who are they to tell the rest of the world exactly what “needs to stop”?
It is more true that people like them need to stop presuming to tell the rest of us what to do.
And what the heck is a “climate disaster”, anyway?
Do they mean a severe weather event?
Which are the places in the world that are completely immune to one sort of disaster or another, especially when the time frame for such is the “future”?
I can tell them which places: No places!
There is no place where some sort of disaster is known to be impossible at any time in the future.
And no way to predict where any event will occur except very generally: Mountain ridges are unlikely to undergo floods, and places that are 100 miles inland are unlikely to experience hurricanes.
But those same places will for sure and with 100% certainty undergo some other type of weather disaster at some point: Blizzards will hit mountains, and droughts and heatwaves, tornadoes and floods will at some point “hit” inland areas.
But there are weather events, not climate events.
I do not even know if there is such a thing as a climate disaster.
Climate is a 30 year average of weather conditions in a particular place. A rainforest becoming a desert might be a climate disaster, but I know of no place that this will happen, nor do they. It is likely impossible short of a planet changing event like a return to ice age conditions.
Maybe they mean like when Antarctica became an ice sheet? Or the places that used to be sea shores became submerged by over 100 meters of ocean water when the Laurentide ice sheet melted? What is gonna happen next? Should we evacuate low lying islands to Hudson’s Bay, and hope that a return of the ice sheet is not the next thing to occur?
Maybe they mean when the Holocene Climate Optimum ended and it got much colder across the planet, and the lush veldt of the Sahara became a desert? That was when temperatures fell, and yet these people are hoping and trying to bring about a reversal of the recent warmup from Little Ice Age conditions!
No one alive now has suffered from a climate disaster, although we are the beneficiaries of several huge climate changes, like the end of the Pleistocene and the end of the LIA.
How can someone be a climate scientist who is not aware of the distinction between weather and climate?
Why should anyone listen to irrational doomsday panic monger and their breathless jackassery?
And why should anyone believe the primary focus of where it is or is not a good idea to live one’s life ought to be the mere possibility of some nebulous and unstated “disaster”, at any time in the infinite interval called “the future”?
The timing and spacing of such events is what matters.
And no place is immune to adverse weather events, although it is almost surely the case that no one alive today will dies due to “climate change”.
Bad weather though? Yes, that is and will always be a risk. Although it is also true that it is rarely the actual weather than kills, but rather the decisions about where exactly to build one’s home: River flood plains are dangerous and will by definition flood at regular intervals in the future. But theses are also rich and productive farmlands. Sea sides and sea ports are at danger from ocean storms, but are great places to live in between them. People that heed evacuation warnings are at little risk, but people are known to ignore these, and often these are the same people that are most at risk.
But such places are also at risk from tsunamis, and these have nothing to do with weather or climate, and are impossible to predict in advance, although we can safely say for sure that anyplace which has had one in the past will have more in the future.
Which leads into the next point about the focus on weather and climate: There is no end to the risks in life, and the sorts of disasters that may affect people. Why and how does anyone presume to say that weather is a unique risk?
Tens of millions of people blithely go on living in California, despite the sure and certain knowledge that no end of deadly earthquakes are on top for that state with no chance for any warning whatsoever, and no chance it will not happen again, even after “the big one” hits!
Everyone in cities like Portland and Seattle are at grave risk of not just deadly tsunamis, but the certainty of a future lahar and even a chance of being incinerated just prior to being buried (barely) alive by pyroclastic flow when one of the nearby volcanoes next chooses to erupt, although it is perhaps more likely that there will be some warning before a catastrophic eruptive event.
But how many will ignore the swarms of earthquakes known as harmonic tremors that indicate an active magma plume? I think it will be very many.
And how many scientists will go out on a limb and give grave and urgent warnings when there is a mere chance of such events? I can tell you the answer is zero, because they are coming and no one is warning anyone at all.
Natural disasters are hardly limited to weather events, and many such events occur very rarely, and do so in locations that are highly desirable and beneficial places to live one’s life. We live on a planet where no one is perfectly safe from disaster, and weather disasters are not uniquely deadly and certain, let alone particularly predictable, or necessarily totally avoidable.
Writing a speculative paper based on hype and fear by people with no sense of history, little perspective or even common sense, and with an incautious and alarmist mentality…this is not science, it is opinionating by people with a startling lack of rational judgement.
These so called scientists declare evacuations WILL be required from low lying islands, and are not even aware of the recent findings that nearly every island which has actually been surveyed over time has been found to be gaining in area and elevation, and not sinking or even shrinking.
Taking in the big picture, we of sound and rational mind must be and remain aware of why there is this focus on one type of concern rather than on a rational understanding of the inherent risks in life on a dynamic planet.
The reason is because climate change has nothing to do with the real reason for what these people are doing, it is a mere means to an end.
The purpose is to wrest control of our lives from us, and hand over political power to a certain ideological wing of the global body politic, and to use the means by which we all remain alive, employed, safe, and comfortable to do it: By taking control of the sources of energy, that same energy that has elevated us from a dirty, brutal and short existence of the recent past, to the clean, safe, long, and cozy one we now enjoy.
Some of these so-called scientists may merely be clueless, but others are very clued in, and they are wicked and evil.
All are dangerous, and wrong.
Nicholas McGinley: good comment.
Well said. Once I was told that human intelligence is a consistent howev the population is unfortunately increasing.
Folks some people believe that there is no climate emergency and some believe the world is flat or the moon is made of cheese. But over 95% of climate scientists believe that human induced climate change is very rapidly changing our world. The other scientists and commentators are employed by big oil or coal as lobbyists. Esso knew back in the 80’s that human burning of fossil fuels would cause climate change,but inorder to protect their business interests they ran disinformation campaigns from bogus think tanks.
Hey Skippy,
Doomsday catastrophists have believed the world is about to end since the dawn of time, and most of us thought that it was because people in the old days were superstitious fools.
Now we know it is because they are just like you: Gullible dupes and frightened children who have been lied to and have no way to understand it.
Instead of succumbing to the mass hysteria and infantile delusions that are all the rage, how about instead educating yourself about the actual facts?
No one thinks the world is flat or the moon made of cheese, but if it makes you feel better to tell yourself that such delusions are commonplace, just go right on ahead believing they do.
Go right on believing that there is a consensus that the world is changing rapidly due to CO2 caused global warming.
Go find the proof that anything is changing rapidly besides alarmism and nincompoopery.
Go find a crisis and bring us the proof.
In the meantime, spare us the straw men and logical fallacies and all the rest of the institutionalized jackassery you are in love with.
I think that Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds ought to be part of every school curriculum.
I’m sure that Charles Mackay would have something to say about our modern condition nearly 170 years after he was published.
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/24518/24518-h/24518-h.htm
A recommended read for those who haven’t come across it.
What about AL Gore and Obama having millions of dollars worth of property on the East shore of the Atlantic. Apparently they don’t believe to much in sea level rise but they want us to believe.
I decided to be the crazy Canadian today, but most of you will already think we are nuts. My fellow Canadians will be telling me to shut the front door! Or something like that. 🙂 But! Here it goes. I think “they” are wrong. The north is not the place to be, the north will be the new south. How does that grab yah?! Insert another grin here. Hmmmm now, what if, all this HAS happened before. What if it wasn’t the ice age that brought the glacial evidence as far south as Peggy’s Cove. (Just about half way between the north pole and the equator.) But…it was the planets own natural defense against the sun. What if the poles and their ice covered landmasses are the air-conditioning for the planet…up is down, down is up. I remember my father saying that back in the seventies, months before his death. Funny how things stick with you. So, if that is the case, and Antarctica is the major contributor to all that goes on beneath/above it…after all Rivers run south from there…or north…or whatever direction it is…It doesn’t fall off, put it that way. 🙂 Yeah, I just thought I could use some humiliation for the day. Everybody I know thinks I’m just a bit off, now they will know for sure. 🙂 All my Air Force buddies will be embarrassed of me, but it won’t be the first time hahahahaha. All I can say, is be nice, be generous and remember…we have no idea WTF happens after this. Hedge your bets and be a good soul LOL. Cheers.