Friday’s Fantasy Football Potpurri

We’re catching up on a few things today! First, I updated my Pre-Season Rankings, and I’m just going to give you some quick hits about my concerns about playing time right now. To be honest, we’re in the period of coach speak and “motivational moves,” so I’m not going to overhaul the ranks with every tweet we hear about Jalen Hurts. Then, we’ve got the Hall of Fame game summary! Lastly, I’ll go over my RazzBowl draft and give everybody an idea of how I approached a season-long fantasy draft.

Adjust the Ranks

Jalen Hurts — Hurts moved from QB4 in my rankings all the way down to QB11. Why? Nothing changed on Hurts’ end, but we’re looking at some scary comments from Eagles head coach Nick Sirriani. Despite the Eagles trading away Carson Wentz and having Hurts as the clear QB1 — unless one considers Joe Flacco a threat — the local Philly media is stating that it’s clear that the Eagles moved on from Wentz without declaring Hurts their actual starter. In fact, there’s discussion of bringing in disgraced QB Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans. Watson faces over 20 charges in civil court for sexual misconduct and may face additional criminal charges or NFL disciplinary charges. And yet, the Eagles won’t commit to Hurts. Remember when the Packers wouldn’t commit to Aaron Rogers? Some of you were in diapers when that happened. I personally see Hurts starting 17 games for the Eagles in 2021, but I can’t — in good faith — instruct people to follow bad process on picking their top QB when the entire organization is basically saying “Meh.” That said, Hurts could be a great value if Sirianni is just doing a really bad job of “motivating” Hurts. 

Nick Sirianni on naming Jalen Hurts the Week 1 starter: “There’s no rush … We’re just not there yet.” #Eagles

— Mike Kaye (@mike_e_kaye) August 5, 2021

Carson Wentz — Getting a bone in his foot removed and will miss 5-12 weeks. National reporters were optimistic on the return date with many of them saying they feel like Wentz will be on the field in October. To them, I ask: do you know you’re reporting on Carson Wentz? 

Jameis Winston — We’re even more unclear about who starts in New Orleans. Fantasy managers probably want Jameis — who is capable of finishing as a top 10 QB due to his volume and yardage alone — but we’ll probably see Taysom Hill take significant time under center. 

Dak Prescott — Still not throwing, but we’re in the hazy realm of “are the coaches taking it easy” or “is he doing a Kyler Murray in the 2nd half of 2020” kind of thing. The needle isn’t really moving on Dak’s ADP right now, but I would generally pass on him this season unless you see him at a discount; there are simply too many QBs in the range of outcomes of Dak Prescott that I would prefer to have. 

Kirk Cousins — The captain would rather sit in a plexiglass cage on the sideline than get vaxxed. Cousins famously said last year that if it was his time to die, then Covid would take him. There’s the Cole Beasley kind of “I won’t comply” mentality, then there’s the nihilist Kirk Cousins approach. Kirk Cousins is also the spokesman of a bland pizza buffet around this neck of the woods. Does that surprise anybody? Trouble for Cousins is, the Vikings have already fired personnel for refusing the vaccine, and Coach Mike Zimmer publicly stated that he’s concerned about the sources of information that his players are using to justify their decisions. It’d be cool if the Vikings dumped half their team because we’re due for a rebuild. Stay tuned for more news. 

Hall of Fame Game

You all wanted to see Rico Dowdle, right? On the Dallas Cowboys side, Garrett Gilbert and Cooper Rush matched each other with 13 pass attempts, although Gilbert threw for over a hundred yards while Rush went for 70. The real story of the game was the debut of Najee Harris for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Harris tallied up a whopping 7 carries for 22 yards. It’s just the Hall of Fame game, guys! Mason Rudolph took the lead reins for the Steelers, although Dwayne Haskins stepped in for a metric dozen of pass attempts. You remember Haskins, right? I do. I drafted him in the last round in so many leagues in 2020, and then he went partying with the strippers and got kicked out of a Washington team that already didn’t have a quarterback. What’s worse than having Haskins as your QB? Ron Rivera answered that question with, “Literally anybody else.” Mason Rudolph likely keeps the backup job, but Haskins at least gets some snaps to show other NFL teams he’s serious about a return. Kalen Ballage notched a TD, and he’s worth a last-round pick while rosters are still a mess because he could get some helium late. 

Touchdowns are back!

Kalen Ballage muscles in the first of the preseason. @steelers

📺: @ProFootballHOF Game on FOX pic.twitter.com/eBq0iOpT06

— NFL (@NFL) August 6, 2021

RazzBowl Draft

Because the RazzBowl is a massive tournament of 200+ fantasy footballers — many of them sharp industry players — it’s a bit more acceptable to draft an unorthodox team that isn’t optimal. Doing this kind of draft is called being “anti-fragile,” but honestly, I just prefer framing the draft as attempting to see a pathway to points that other people didn’t recognize. You’ll notice I took a very, shall we say, weird path in this draft. But with a 0.25% chance of claiming the top spot in the first place, it’s totally fine to be different. Here’s the team: 

Overall Team Structure: 

Sharp-eyed viewers will note that I’ve got a weird team structure, right? 3QBs by round 10, a ton of RBs at the end, and only 2 TEs. I do not recommend this structure for Underdog drafts or traditional Yahoo/ESPN drafts; I was purposefully drafting a weird team composition to help open pathways to playoff opportunities. Let’s break down why I made my choices: 

Derrick Henry: Had my choice of Henry or Jonathan Taylor, and I’ve already drafted Taylor a few times in other leagues, so I diversified with Henry. Why is diversification important? Imagine if I drafted Joe Mixon everywhere last year? Or Saquon Barkley? Or Jimmy Garoppolo? Injuries happen, and if you draft the same team everywhere, an injury to one of the important cogs can ruin an entire season. Henry is my RB5 on the season, and historical data says that he’s unlikely to continue his rushing productivity this season. But what if…what if Henry is the GOAT and we’re just waiting for this season for confirmation? [pinky to mouth] 

D.K. Metcalf: I was graced with Metcalf in the late 2nd round because the room was RB heavy and one of the other drafters took Calvin Ridley ahead of ADP. I had my choice of A.J. Brown here as well, but I diversified into Metcalf because I hadn’t drafted him elsewhere this year. My choice of Metcalf set up my intentional selection of Russell Wilson in round 5.

George Kittle: Somehow, Kittle fell to me at pick 30, and that’s a great value. Kittle had a tough injury season last year, but has otherwise been healthy. I’ll take the chance on Kittle in 2021. 

Darrell Henderson: RB was getting thin at this point, and Henderson had the most snaps left on my draft board. Henderson sits in the RB20-25 range on my draft board, and I like his efficiency and the support from his coaches, but he’s undersized for full-season success. Taking Henderson set up my heavy RB picks late in the draft.

Russell Wilson: What happens when you take Russell Wilson before Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen? Nothing, because their outcomes are basically all in the same range. Don’t think about fantasy projections as hierarchical and set in stone, but rather think about possibilities. Wilson spent the past few years under an offensive coordinator that actually favored the run over the pass. Yet, Wilson was still finishing in the top 5 QBs every year and is the only QB with 30+ pass TDs 4 years straight. Now, the Seahawks OC is a former passing game coordinator for the Rams, when Jared Goff was putting up top 5 seasons in the NFL in passing yards. So, we could have a major inefficiency in Wilson’s draft cost to production. In other words: I envison Murray, Wilson, and Allen to have about the same range of median outcomes; I chose the QB that would pair with my top WR. I could have waited until round 6 for Wilson, but I had about a 30% chance of landing him there, which made me uneasy about my intended team build. By pairing Wilson with Metcalf, I provide my team with the opportunity for big weeks when they both “hit.” I did not secure the stack of Wilson/Metcalf/Lockett because another manager noticed my plan and took Lockett slightly ahead of ADP. 

Brandon Aiyuk / Raheem Mostert: Aiyuk has the potential to be a big-play WR, and if Trey Lance takes the reigns as QB in San Francisco, Aiyuk’s value would be in the 4th-5th round range. Raheem Mostert balanced my team in the event of a failure by Darrell Henderson; Mostert is expected to be the RB1 in SF for the majority of the year. 

Ryan Tannehill: Sometimes, you need to make a draft pick that tilts the room. Did I need a QB? Nope. But, I looked at my RB/WR/TE targets, and they were all in the “efficient frontier,” where their projections were about the same. Meanwhile, Tannehill was the last consensus top-10 QB on the board; the QB position dropped off precipitously after Tannehill. Yet, the players drafting after me all lacked a QB. I could take an upside QB in Tannehill — and QBs are important in RazzBowl because of the 2nd half lineup-setting period — and force other players to grab their QB at the upcoming turn. The strategy worked: 50% of the subsequent picks at the turn were QBs, leaving me free to draft the guy who was my actual target at a discount…

Deebo Samuel: In PPR, short-range receivers are nice. Michael Thomas, Davante Adams…and Deebo Samuel. Samuel is a possession receiver and will succeed in SF regardless of Jimmy G/Trey Lance as QB. He just needs to stay healthy…

Trey Lance: OK, you knew this was coming. I had Kittle, Aiyuk, Samuel, and Mostert…it only makes sense to grab Lance and see what happens. The 49ers were a mess last year because of injuries, but in 2019, they had a top 15 offense and gained over 4,000 passing yards. Now, Trey Lance seems set to take the QB reigns after 4ish weeks — or possibly after that week 6 bye — and the 49ers have a pretty easy schedule to finish the year. In a tournament where many teams will look the same at the end of the competition, I wanted to look different. Having a mega-49ers stack sets me apart from the pack. And if it doesn’t work out? Well, I had a 99.75% chance of not being in 1st place anyway. 

Nyheim Hines / Tre’Quan Smith / Nelson Agholor / Anthony Firkser / Damien Williams: These guys are all upside picks. I had just heard the news about Wentz getting injured and decided to pull the trigger on Hines. The Colts were already friendly to scatbacks like Hines, but with Jacob Eason coming in to play, he’ll likely throw to Hines a touch more than expected. Tre’Quan Smith will be taking WR1 snaps in New Orleans, which gives him around 6-7 targets a game at minimum. Same goes for Nelson Agholor, who will likely be the WR1A/WR1B in New England. Firkser steps in as the expected TE1 in Tennessee, and the Titans don’t really pass to their RBs very much, opening a path for Firkser to get 50ish targets on the year, which is acceptable for a TE2. If Kittle stays healthy, Firkser won’t have a chance at getting in the TE slot anyway. Damien Williams stands to be the replacement for David Montgomery, who was an unexpected volume-heavy RB last year due to massive injuries. If the Bears lose interest in D-Mont, D-Will is the next man up. 

Marlon Mack / Jake Funk / Wayne Gallman: Many people like to draft scatbacks at the end of the draft. Do you remember Chris Thompson last year? Yeah, me neither. If you want J.D. McKissick, he’ll probably be on the wire in week 3. But what happens if Jonathan Taylor, Darrell Henderson, or Raheem Mostert get hurt? One of these backs will likely step into a RB role that could produce 800-1000 yards. That, my friends, is this year’s James Robinson. 

Anthony Miller / Tim Patrick: The WR2 on the Texans and WR3 of the Broncos, so target upside. What happens if Courtland Sutton doesn’t mesh in the new Broncos system? Tim Patrick put up massive games in the Mile High City last year. What if Brandin Cooks gets an injury? Miller becomes WR1 in a pass-heavy offense. 

Fantasy Takeaway: My team looks weird because I sought pathways to playing time rather than chasing ADP or chasing data. Last year, we saw Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and George Kittle all miss significant time or the entire season. By pre-emptively seeking players who have easy paths to playing time in “what if” scenarios, I set my team up for a potential playoff or championship run. What happens if the optimal lineups win the 2021 year? Well, that’s fine, because I had a 99.75% chance of losing the RazzBowl in the first place. 

Cheers all, and let me know what you’re seeing in the NFL this week!