Fantasy Football in 2019: Which Players Were Drafted When
Saquon Barkley was the top pick, but quarterback choices were all over the map, ESPN data shows.
The chart above shows the top N.F.L. players picked in recent fantasy football drafts, using data from thousands of drafts provided by ESPN.
At first glance, the distributions of picks reflect the consensus best practices for drafting strategies: Pick running backs and wide receivers first because they will generate the most fantasy points for your team.
For example, my colleague Victor Mather noted that there was strong preseason agreement that the top four running backs for fantasy football were Saquon Barkley of the Giants, Christian McCaffrey of the Panthers, Alvin Kamara of the Saints and Ezekiel Elliott of the Cowboys. Whether they will ultimately be the most productive running backs in 2019 remains to be seen, but they were clearly the favorites among ESPN users.
This variance is widest for quarterbacks, whose pick patterns are so distinct you don’t even need to read their names to know they’re a quarterback. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, named the N.F.L.’s most valuable player last season, represents the most obvious example of this pattern, with a roughly equal likelihood of being drafted in any of the first 40 picks in the draft, including No. 1 over all. But the variance exists for other quarterbacks as well: Baker Mayfield of the Browns; Deshaun Watson of the Texans; Aaron Rodgers of the Packers; and Drew Brees of the Saints. This may reflect the uncertain nature of picking quarterbacks, or it may simply be a matter of name recognition, as quarterbacks are usually the face of each franchise.
Draft Variance by Position
Below, how ESPN fantasy football managers varied on whom to pick, by position. We’re showing the top 10 players for each, based on ESPN’s preseason ranking of each.
Running Back
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Quarterback
Comparing Everyone’s Picks With the ESPN Draft Cheat Sheet
It’s hard to say what kind of variance you might expect from a fantasy football draft. But it’s clear that ESPN’s own rankings play a role in draft order.
Like dozens of sites, ESPN publishes a cheat sheet, ranking hundreds of N.F.L. players for different kinds of fantasy leagues, to help fantasy football managers draft like experts. A version of the cheat sheet is shown to users in real time as they draft in an ESPN league, and can be very useful: Even devoted N.F.L. fans may not know which of three tight ends might be a clear standout or which quarterback might provide the best value in the fourth round, particularly in a narrow time frame.
Below, a chart comparing users’ preferences with the rankings from ESPN’s experts. They are nearly the same for the first 40 to 50 picks.
Comparing Cheat Sheet Rankings and Users’ Aggregate Picks
On average, users picked the players that ESPN suggested to them — unless that player was a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes.