EU Official: “we can’t make any progress on climate change until Brexit is resolved”

The EU referendum took place almost three and a half years ago. The likes of Johnson (currently PM) and Farage suggested that a withdrawal deal would be easy to arrange, lied about the benefits of leaving, and vast amounts of illegal funds were used to support and drive the Leave campaign (investigations still ongoing), which should in a reasonable world have rendered the result null and void. As it was the winning margin was less than 2% and just under 37.5% of the total electorate voted to leave.

The majority of voters over 65 voted to leave and the majority of voters under 25 voted to remain in the EU. Approximately a million of those from the older age group who voted to leave are estimated to have died since. More than 2 million new young voters have joined the electorate since and the great majority of those are apparently in favour of staying in the EU. The current level of support for staying in the EU amongst the populace is apparently now higher than the leave majority was back in June 2019. People have learned a great deal in the intervening time and surely referendums have a best by date too, just as General Elections have.

In 64 Harold Wilson won with a small majority and went back to the people in 66 and was re-elected with a sizable majority. He did the same thing in 74, after just 8 months in power. There are several instances of the results of General Elections in the UK lasting for only a short time with the will of the people changing as circumstances and electoral make up changes. There is no rule in the UK constitution (yes, it’s not codified but it does exist) to the effect Referendum results must be applied regardless of the passage of time. Such a rule would be utterly ridiculous obviously. When circs have changed substantially – more people have a clearer idea of what Brexit is about now than did in June 2016 – and when the make up the electorate has changed, and when the majority was so small in a matter of such importance, then a further referendum makes a great deal of sense – if democracy is to matter at all. Further, such a change has such far reaching long term consequences that the votes of the young are particularly important. In Scotland,prior to the 2014 referendum, the voting age was reduced to 16. But 16-18 year olds were not able to vote in 2016.

The media campaign (in a country where the right wing media is utterly dominant and and engages in ideologically driven misrepresentation on a daily basis) was significantly influential in producing the result. Boris Johnson, a proven liar, spent several years in his early journalistic career with The Telegraph, based in Brussels, peddling myths about the EU which were then picked up and given front page treatment in the mass market tabloids as if they were facts and helped lay the foundations for ignorant public hositility to the EU. The EU is primarily about trade and the UK gains enormously from its membership in terms of trade. Jacob Rees Mogg, one of the extremist members of one of the right wing bodies driving the anti EU sentiment, the ERG, has admitted that it may take up to 50 years for the UK to recover econmically from withdrawal. Most of those in the House of Commons who are fighting the exit – on the current terms – are concerned about the damage to our trading position – ie the empact on jobs and GDP and all of the knock on consequences, and those who are against leaving are not all on the left. And those who want to leave are not all on the left. The leader of the left wing opposition is a leave supporter.

Some possibly relevant information. The EU is currently working on trying to close loopholes that allow the wealthiest to hide their money offshore to avoid paying their fair share of tax. Many in the pro leave groups stand to lose if the UK stays in the EU as a result. There’s also evidence of the strangest thing: members of these groups moving their profit making concerns to EU countries in expectation of the UK leaving, while campaigning for leave!

Things are not quite as simple as they seem. And this little comment barely scratches the surface of the complexity of Brexit. As for the EU bureaucracy, it’s less than a tenth of the size of the UK’s, and about a seventieth of the size of the US’s Federal beaurocracy. Workers rights and quality standards will be at risk if/when we leave – which is fine for those whose only concern is making as much money as they can and not so good for those at the bottom end. In large part the pro Brexit movement benefitted from the profoundly damaging effects of the preceding 6 years of austerity which helped crearte a substantial body of very disaffected people whose concerns were focussed on leaving the EU as a solution to their problems by dishonest rich and powerful people who had no interest in those who’d suffered as a result of austerity policies. Surveys have shown that the less well educated tended to vote leave (as pressured and persuaded by the tabloid press) and the better educated tended to vote to stay in. Leaving the EU is an act of self harm, but it suits that disrupter to our east, Vladimir Putin, who wants to see the EU broken up because it poses a threat to his plans for increasing dominance to the east of and throughout Europe. Donald Trump is also in favour of our leaving, because anything that makes the EU weaker is a good thing in his eyes too – notwithstanding his affection for Vlad and his aims. And yes, the Good Friday Agreement matters. The EU has fought hard to try to ensure that Brexit doesn’t indirectly provoke violence on the Irish border, whereas the extreme right in the UK couldn’t care less.

I’m still a sceptic by the way. Global warming seems to be happening. The temperature stats suggest it is. But there’s no way of distinguishing – yet, that I’m aware of – between natural variation and any impact rising CO2 levels may have. I’m still waiting for hard evidence either way.

There will be typos. Apologies in advance.

It peeves me deeply that the ignorance, wilful or just arrogance, of the journos & politicians who keep referring to Britian as “leaving Europe”, NOT that Britian is “Leaving the EU”!, they are two distinctly differnet entities! The EU contains 28 (hopefully soon to be just 27) countries & is simply or even sinisterly a political construct, yet geographically, there are 42 countries in “Europe”! This ignorance is largely deliberate to cast Brexiteers as racists & or predjudiced against Johnny Foreigner! (Which we ain’t!)