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The New Toll of American Student Debt in 3 Charts

It’s a sign of the times: A new game show, “Paid Off,” debuted on Tuesday offering winners not dream vacations or new cars, but a pile of cash to help lessen the crushing weight of their student debt.

The reach of America’s student loan problem — total debt is now about $1.4 trillion — is vast. Millions of people are in default, and many young people are graduating into adulthood facing payments that limit their ability to buy homes and to start families of their own. Some employers have even begun dangling student loan repayment benefits as a perk to potential workers.

A new analysis of federal loan data indicates that the average student’s debt load is plateauing, and perhaps even declining slightly, at least when adjusted for inflation.

A Shifting Burden

The average student’s debt load is leveling off, a new analysis of federal loan data shows. That’s not true for many parents.

Average parent loan debt

$40,000

30,000

20,000

Average student debt

10,000

Figures are adjusted for inflation

0

1994-

95

1999-

00

2004-

05

2009-

10

2017-

18

$40,000

Average parent loan debt

30,000

Average student debt

20,000

10,000

Figures are adjusted for inflation

0

1994-95

1999-00

2004-05

2009-10

2014-15

2017-18

Source: Mark Kantrowitz (SavingForCollege.com)

That should be welcome news, except that it comes with a major asterisk: College has not become more affordable, but more students seeking bachelor’s degrees, especially at higher-cost colleges, have borrowed as much as they can under the federal loan program.

As a result, the analysis suggests, many parents are going deeper into debt to pay for their children’s education.

[Try our student loan calculator for a guide to the borrowing picture at various institutions, and what it takes to repay the loans after graduation.]

For students receiving bachelor’s degrees, the average debt load at graduation was $30,301 in 2015-16, about the same as estimates for the previous three years, according to the analysis, which is based on data from the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study. The federal Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics conducts the study every four years.

Mark Kantrowitz, the publisher and vice president of research at SavingForCollege.com, ran the numbers. He believes the explanation for the flattening is that many students simply cannot borrow any more money through the federal loan program.

More than 40 percent of students in the 2015-16 school year reached the limit of $31,000 for dependent students, up from 39 percent in 2011-12.

But some students — those whose parents cannot get federal parental loans, called PLUS loans — have a higher cap on how much they can borrow. (They can borrow up to $57,500, the same limit used for independent students.)

The percentage of all students taking advantage of the higher maximum loan amounts rose to 7.4 percent of those receiving bachelor’s degrees in 2015-16, up from 5.8 percent in 2011-12 and 3.3 percent in 2007-08, according to Mr. Kantrowitz’s analysis.

In that time, parents’ average debt load at graduation for federal PLUS loans rose 14 percent, or $4,090, to $33,291 in 2015-16 from 2011-12.

“Parents are a pressure-relief valve for when students hit the Stafford loan limits,” Mr. Kantrowitz said, referring to the federal loan program.

Among PLUS loan borrowers in 2015-16, roughly two-thirds were taking loans on behalf of students pursuing bachelor’s degrees who had reached their loan limit in their senior year, Mr. Kantrowitz said.

Spreading the Financial Pain

The overall percentage of parents borrowing alongside their children has dropped slightly, but those who are borrowing are taking on significantly more debt.

Share of those graduating with

a bachelor’s degree with debt

100

%

80

60

40

20

0

1994-

95

1999-

00

2004-

05

2009-

10

2017-

18

100

%

Share of those graduating with a bachelor’s degree with debt

80

60

40

20

0

1994-95

1999-00

2004-05

2009-10

2014-15

2017-18

Source: Mark Kantrowitz (SavingForCollege.com)

In a further wrinkle, although parental debt loads have risen significantly, the number of parents taking out federal PLUS loans declined by about 10 percent from 2011-12 to 2015-16.

“It may be that we are in an economic recovery and as the stock market improves, fewer parents are borrowing and don’t need to borrow,” Mr. Kantrowitz said. “But those who borrow need to borrow more because the cost of college continues to rise,” he said, adding they were also picking up the slack for children who were unable to take out more federal loans.

Sign of a Widening Gap

The data also indicates that more students are choosing public colleges over private ones simply for financial reasons.

Number of those graduating with

a bachelor’s degree with debt

1,000,000

PUBLIC

SCHOOLS

800,000

600,000

PRIVATE

SCHOOLS

400,000

200,000

Debt is either a student or parent loan.

Private includes for-profit schools.

0

1994-

95

1999-

00

2004-

05

2009-

10

2017-

18

Number of those graduating with a bachelor’s degree with debt

1,000,000

PUBLIC SCHOOLS

800,000

600,000

PRIVATE SCHOOLS

400,000

200,000

Debt is either a student or parent loan. Private includes for-profit schools.

0

1994-95

1999-00

2004-05

2009-10

2014-15

2017-18

Source: Mark Kantrowitz (SavingForCollege.com)

The data also shows more students opting for lower-cost public colleges. That seems like a practical move. But, Mr. Kantrowitz said, it suggests that families are feeling financially squeezed.

“Parents are realizing they just can’t afford that more expensive college,” he said. “The shift from private to public is of concern mainly because it is a sign of financial pressure, a kind of canary in the coal mine.”

More problematic is separate data that shows low- and middle-income students enrolling in associate degree and certificate programs instead of bachelor’s degree programs. That, Mr. Kantrowitz said, is “of greater concern because students who could benefit from a bachelor’s degree are scaling back their educational attainment for no reason other than college affordability.”

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: College Debt Isn’t Shrinking. It’s Likely Shifting to Parents.. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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