College Football Teams with Best Shot to Go Undefeated in 2018

Alabama and Clemson might meet in the College Football Playoff for a fourth straight year, but which juggernaut has the better odds of at least getting to conference championship week with a zero in the loss column?

Along with the Crimson Tide and Tigers, these are the teams with the best odds of an undefeated season.

On each slide, we'll look at the team's biggest weakness, its most likely loss and the one trap game that could be a problem. As teams like Ohio State (blown out by 8-5 Iowa) and Clemson (lost to 4-8 Syracuse) demonstrated last season, those trap games can be bigger pitfalls than the ones national media circle as can't-miss affairs.

Using win probabilities from ESPN's FPI ratings, these are the teams with the best odds of entering conference championship week (or lack thereof for Notre Dame) with a 12-0 record.

Our "percent chance" will be higher than FPI's "probability to win out," because the latter numbers include a projected conference championship game (for teams in conferences). Since we have no way of knowing for sure who that opponent would be, we're only looking to identify the teams most likely to run the table during the regular season.

Penn State Nittany Lions (4.4 percent)

The smart money is on no Big Ten team going 12-0 this year, especially with Wisconsin playing crossover games at Penn State and Michigan. But the Nittany Lions at least have a shot, as they'll get Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. They do have to play at Michigan, but it's not inconceivable to think Trace McSorley could win a game in the Big House.

Miami Hurricanes (3.9 percent)

Miami surprised everyone by starting 10-0 last year. Could the Hurricanes do it again? There are a lot of coin-flip games on the schedule, starting with the season opener against LSU in Arlington, Texas. But the 'Canes should at least be slight favorites in every game prior to the ACC championship. They don't play Clemson and they get Florida State at home.

Boise State Broncos (3.3 percent)

Boise State has a brutal road game against Oklahoma State in Week 3, but ESPN's FPI gives the Broncos at least a 71 percent chance of winning each other game on their schedule. If they are able to open the year 3-0 with a win over the Cowboys, they'll have about a 1-in-6 chance of winning the next nine.

Memphis Tigers (2.8 percent)

Without Riley Ferguson and Anthony Miller, there's almost no chance Memphis will be as good as it was last season, when its only regular-season loss was a road game against undefeated UCF. However, aside from a late October road game against Missouri, this is a forgiving schedule. The Tigers play both Houston and UCF at home, and they don't have to deal with South Florida, meaning they ought to be favored in 11 of 12 games.

Oregon Ducks (0.5 percent)

Oregon's odds aren't great, but why is that? The season begins with home games against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State, which might be the weakest nonconference schedule in the entire country. The Ducks don't play USC, and they get both Stanford and Washington at home. Kind of hard to believe they would only run this table once if given 200 tries.

Percent Chance for 12-0: 8.9

Biggest Weakness: Defensive Leaders

On offense, Ohio State is in great shape. The Buckeyes need to replace QB J.T. Barrett, but they have plenty of excellent options to take his place. On defense, however, there are a ton of holes to plug. Sam Hubbard, Jerome Baker, Denzel Ward, Damon Webb and Tyquan Lewis are all gone, meaning it's now Nick Bosa and a bunch of guys hoping to prove they can be stars. Considering Urban Meyer was able to seamlessly replace three 2017 first-round draft picks in the secondary last year, though, perhaps this won't be much of a problem.

Most Likely Loss: at Penn State (Sept. 29)

Penn State doesn't lose in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions are undefeated at home over the last two seasons and have a 20-1 record dating back to the start of the 2015 season. Sure, they lost Saquon Barkley, Mike Gesicki and a bunch of key players on defense, but there's still more than enough talent on the roster for this to be a Top 10 team. And if defense is in any way a weakness for the Buckeyes, Trace McSorley and Co. will exploit it.

Trap Game: at Maryland (Nov. 17)

Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Maryland hasn't even come within 20 points of defeating Ohio State. The last two seasons, the Buckeyes beat the Terps by a combined score of 124-17. But this is a team with breakout potential, and for Ohio State, this is a road game sandwiched in between two huge matchups with Michigan State and Michigan.

Percent Chance for 12-0: 9.0

Biggest Weakness: Defense as a Whole

Baker Mayfield was so gifted at QB it didn't much matter that Oklahoma's defense was giving up 27.1 points per game and 5.84 yards per play last year. With Kyler Murray now running the offense, the Sooners are probably going to need more out of their D. And that won't be easy after losing leading tacklers Emmanuel Beal and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo.

Most Likely Loss: at West Virginia (Nov. 23)

The FPI percentages say the Red River Rivalry is the most likely to result in a loss for Oklahoma, but this Friday road game against West Virginia is going to be no walk in the park. If defense is the biggest problem for the Sooners, we wish them luck in slowing down Will Grier, Kennedy McKoy, David Sills V and Gary Jennings. Even without Grier, the Mountaineers put up 31 points against Oklahoma this past season.

Trap Game: vs. Baylor (Sept. 29)

After opening the season with games against the rush-heavy attacks of Florida Atlantic, UCLA, Iowa State and Army, Oklahoma's secondary could be in for a rude awakening against Baylor. Last year, the Bears threw for 463 yards in a game against the Sooners that was much closer than anyone was expecting. Denzel Mims and Co. might be able to replicate that.

Percent Chance for 12-0: 9.8

Biggest Weakness: Running Game

An example of how quickly things can change in college football, Notre Dame might have some problems running the ball just one season removed from having one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. That's because the Fighting Irish lost Heisman finalist Josh Adams, as well as four starters on the offensive line, including likely first-round draft picks Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson. Backup ball-carriers Deon McIntosh and C.J. Holmes were dismissed from the team in January, further reducing the pool of options.

Most Likely Loss: at USC (Nov. 24)

There are a lot of rough games on Notre Dame's schedule, including the opener against Michigan, a road game against Virginia Tech, and home games against Florida State and Stanford. But even if the Fighting Irish survive that journey to start the season 11-0, the finale against the Trojans will probably be their undoing. USC should have one of the best defenses this year, led by Cameron Smith and Iman Marshall.

Trap Game: at Northwestern (Nov. 3)

One week after the annual battle with Navy and one week before the showdown with Florida State, Notre Dame has a tricky road game against Northwestern. The Wildcats lost a lot from last season, most notably the program's all-time leading rusher Justin Jackson. However, they still have a strong defensive front seven and an excellent quarterback in Clayton Thorson (if his knee fully heals). Northwestern won't be favored in this game, but it is more than capable of catching Notre Dame napping. 

Percent Chance for 12-0: 10.2

Biggest Weakness: Home Run Threats

Washington still has an outstanding running back in Myles Gaskin and a four-year starter at QB in Jake Browning, but who is going to become the go-to receiver? The Huskies struggled to replace John Ross last year, but at least they still had Dante Pettis for the occasional punt return touchdown. Now that he's also gone, those quick-strike plays will be even fewer and farther between.

Most Likely Loss: vs. Auburn (Sept. 1 in Atlanta)

There are quite a few intriguing Week 1 games, but this one might take the cake. We'll get an early glimpse at how well Auburn will be able to replace running back Kerryon Johnson, as well as what Washington's defense will look like sans defensive tackle Vita Vea, linebacker Keishawn Bierria and linebacker Azeem Victor. In a true neutral environment, this would be a coin flip with perhaps the slightest edge to the Huskies. But after traveling from the Pacific Northwest to SEC country, Washington figures to be at a bit of a disadvantage.

Trap Game: at California (Oct. 27)

Washington has a tough five-week stretch beginning on Oct. 6. The Huskies play back-to-back road games against UCLA and Oregon, host Colorado, travel to Cal and finish that gauntlet with a home game against Stanford. They might be tempted to overlook the Golden Bears after blowing them out in each of the last two seasons, but this team should be much improved on offense and a legitimate Pac-12 contender.

Percent Chance for 12-0: 17.0

Biggest Weakness: Experience

With four consecutive top-six recruiting classes, per 247Sports, there's no shortage of talent on this Bulldogs roster. But who are the established veterans leading the way? Rushing tandem Sony Michel and Nick Chubb both graduated. Leading receiver Javon Wims is also gone. And the defense was gutted by departures, most notably Roquan Smith. It's a good thing Georgia has so many outstanding true freshmen joining the mix, because it will need to rely on a significant number of them.

Most Likely Loss: vs. Auburn (Nov. 10)

For a third straight year, Georgia gets to avoid Alabama in the SEC crossover games, but the Dawgs do have to deal with Auburn for a third time in the span of 12 months. The good news is it's a home game for Georgia this time around, and it's late enough in the season that the aforementioned concern about experience should be a non-factor. Still, it's going to be a stiff test against a likely preseason AP Top 10 team.

Trap Game: at Kentucky (Nov. 3)

Right before tangling with Auburn and right after the big SEC East showdown with Florida, Georgia has a road trip to Lexington with "Trap" written all over it. Kentucky should be solid on defense with so much returning talent, and stud running back Benny Snell could be a bit of a problem for Georgia's young defense.

Percent Chance for 12-0: 17.3

Biggest Weakness: Secondary

Weakness is always a relative term for Alabama, since the Crimson Tide reload with 4- and 5-star talent every single year. However, they are basically starting over from scratch in the secondary after losing Minkah Fitzpatrick, Levi Wallace, Hootie Jones, Ronnie Harrison, Anthony Averett and Tony Brown. Four of the five projected starters didn't even record 10 total tackles last year.

Most Likely Loss: vs. Auburn (Nov. 24)

Alabama is our third straight team with Auburn listed as the most likely loss. If you're wondering why the Tigers didn't even make the cut as an honorable mention, it's because of these games away from home against Alabama, Georgia and Washington.

Per usual, the Iron Bowl figures to be an instant classic. The Tigers have already ended Alabama's dream of a perfect season twice in the last five years, although those were both road games for the Crimson Tide. This one isn't.

Trap Game: at Ole Miss (Sept. 15)

It's not really a trap game unless you think Alabama will get caught looking ahead to the following week's home game against Texas A&M, but it bears mentioning that this inexperienced secondary will have to figure out how to slow down A.J. Brown in Week 3. It also should be noted that Ole Miss has been a thorn in Alabama's side for years. The Rebels beat the Crimson Tide in 2014 and 2015 and pushed them to the limit in a 48-43 game in 2016.

Percent Chance for 12-0: 23.6

Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line

In both losses last season, Clemson had trouble rushing the ball and Kelly Bryant was under a lot of pressure from opposing pass-rushers. The Tigers do get star left tackle Mitch Hyatt back for one more year, but they are losing three starters from that already less-than-perfect unit. It could be a brutal Achilles' heel for what is otherwise the most complete roster in the country.

Most Likely Loss: at Texas A&M (Sept. 8)

Compared to the other College Football Playoff contenders, Clemson's schedule is a walk in the park. The Tigers don't face Miami or Virginia Tech in ACC play, leaving this game against Texas A&M and a road game against Florida State as the only legitimate challenges. But if the revamped offensive line isn't ready, this Week 2 game might be a problem. In Landis Durham, Tyrel Dodson and Otaro Alaka, the Aggies have three guys who know how to knife into the backfield.

Trap Game: at Wake Forest (Oct. 6)

For whatever reason, Clemson consistently struggles in its last game before the bye week. Last year, the Tigers lost to Syracuse. The year before that, they needed a miracle to beat NC State. In 2015, they barely held on to beat Louisville. And this year, a road game against Wake Forest will be the big hurdle before a brief respite. John Wolford is gone for the Demon Deacons, but they'll still be a tough out at home.