Florida Insiders: ‘The red tide and blue wave ran headfirst into a category 4 hurricane’

We published the latest Florida Insider Poll Thursday, and it focused on the political effects from Hurricane Michael. What follows are comments made by the veteran politicos surveyed.

We allow anonymity in these surveys because many of the participants are working for one or more of the campaigns in question and we want to encourage honesty over spin.

Dem: I still believe this race is Gillum's and Nelson's to lose. But every day that goes by I believe they are both closer to screwing this up. …The only salvation, the republican party is less organized and incapable of mounting a good campaign. …Nelson doesn't deserve to win, but he'll probably ride the anti trump wave. 

D: Clearly both parties wanted the outsider and were sick of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result and both parties did just that. Now, it's up to the Democrats to prove that that strategy will turn out that missing 1% while the other down ballot candidates riding on Andrew's coattails. If we can't win in time of Trump and Florida's coastlines being consumed by blue green algae and red tide, we have bigger problems. 

D: Florida is a proven purple state.  Races on either side are now determined on the margins with 45% of the folks voting for the "D" or "R" behind their names and the Indies/NPA's/others making the final decision.  Most NPA's, if they came from one of the two major parties, still tend to vote with their former party.  The truly independent voters are the pendulum that swings given the political landscape.  Thus, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis will both win by the thinnest of margins, probably about by 1%, just like recent gubernatorial elections.  This will be attributed mostly to the fact that the Repub's have more positive statewide experience in managing winning statewide races.  IF there is a Blue Wave it will be mostly in large urban areas where Gillum won the Dem nomination.  But, we'll have to wait and see if the rural conservative Dem and Repub voters come out as well in retaliation to the Kavanaugh circus, the proposed $1 billion increase in taxes by Gillum, and the other radical concepts advanced by the Dem's like legalization of marijuana, which isn't yet a deciding wedge issue.

D: Everything is returning to the norm.

D: Ron DeSantis has less policy chops than any Republican nominee in recent history – think about that!

D: Scott made as much use of the hurricane as is politically possible. Not sure it will be enough, however, to secure him the election. 

D: Gubernatorial race is tightening. Choosing Chris King as LG running mate insulted almost every democratic elected official in the state and is severely hurting Andrew Gillum with Jewish voters more than is being portrayed. The back room chatter amongst voters is real. Despite the novice mistake, and messaging as if he was running in a general election in California, Gillum wins, but should have been a Gillum runaway. DeSantis still doesn't understand Florida issues, amazing. 

D: Governor Scott is attempting run the same PR playbook for Hurricane Michael as he did in Hurricane Irma. Problem number 1: They're different hurricanes.  Unlike Irma, Scott didn't get days of free press before the full force hit Florida. Also, his response has been poor, with massive destruction in communities who are still without power, sewage, food or water and he's given little communication on how those major problems will be addressed; Problem number 2: Andrew Gillum has stolen a great deal of his thunder, restoring his City quickly — with 99% power restored within a week — and proving himself to be a leader who gets things done. And don't even get me started on Do Nothing DeSantis.

The Dems will perform well at the top of the ticket but downballot will run into trouble. Also turnout and motivation among Democrats outside elite circles seems to be questionable. Hispanic turnout may not be as high as the Democrats anticipate or hope. Much like 2014, that's worth really watching closely. 

D: My Sen. Nelson winning prediction is purely hopeful. If Gov. Scott wins that US Senate seat, it is his as long as he wants it as no candidate will ever want to put up that kind of $ against him, primary or general. He has proven he doesn't hesitate to add whatever it takes of his own fortune, and has also proved to be a formidable fundraiser these past 2 cycles.

D: Andrew Gillum faced his final boss- a hurricane, and won.

D: I think Dems best chance in the Senate is Janet Cruz. I don't see them picking up any other seats unless Keith Perry pulls a "Keith Perry" in the next 20 days.

D: This hurricane directly impacts about 2% of the statewide vote, and for 90% plus, it was not a direct event.  By the time we get to the election, the news cycle will have moved on to 10 other things….Scott won twice by a point in wave years for Republicans.  Does he win either of those elections in 2006 or 2018?  That is your answer to this race.  

D: Trump may know how to fire up his base but for many people in the middle, he has gone too far on so many fronts. I suspect this adds to an atmosphere where voters will want to send a message and prefer having a check on his presidency.

D Scott always gets a bump from a hurricane. Big question is how will turnout be affected in the red panhandle after the hurricane. 

D: As sad as this may sound, if this turns out to be your typical hair thin close statewide electrón, Hurricane Michael's trek through the deep red panhandle could cost the Republicans the few thousand votes they  need thereby hurting Scott and DeSantis and helping Gillum and Nelson as well as  boost all the other statewide Democrats running on the same ticket. 

D: Rick Scott can thank Hurricane Michael for the boost he needed at just the right time. 

D: (On Amendments) Voters will vote no or not vote out of frustration over the long, incomprehensible ballot

D: Florida is once again in the election spotlight and this is going to be close in the Governor and US Senate race. The cabinet members will ride on the coattails of their top-of-ticket party candidates and at least 2 member of the cabinet will be Democrats.

NPA: It is interesting that both Scott and Gillum have avoided debates by using the hurricane as the justification.  Scott has taken it one step further by suspending campaign activities.  This allows Scott to put forth an image of leadership instead of focusing on politics.  Scott is still spending tens of millions on commercials and using his wife as a surrogate campaigner.  The hurricane will affect the election in two main ways.  First, turnout will likely fall in the Redneck Reviara, one of the most conservative areas in Florida except for Leon and Gadsden Counties.  That decrease in turnout for Republicans will have to be made up in other parts of Florida.

   Second, Scott, Nelson, Gillum and DeSantis will all be judged by voters.  Their perception of how the candidates performed in providing state and federal assistance to the storm victims will be critical.  These political animals will be judged by how "apolitical" they behave.  

NPA:  Florida R voter turnout, which is election after election higher than D turnout in off-presidential cycles,  boosts DeSantis, R,  to victory over Gillum, D, in a yet  another close gubernatorial race.

NPA: Both Scott and Gillum caught a lucky break with the hurricane.  They were seen as steady and leader-ly following a monumental natural disaster.  Gillum was articulate on national TV and got lots of free airtime.  Scott was per usual; a high-functioning administrator who still struggles to appear spontaneous and empathetic.  Nevertheless, Nelson and DeSantis were essentially not players in the post-storm narrative.  If you're Gillum, it doesn't hurt that the core of Trump voters in the Panhandle have been upended in their focus on voting.  If you're Scott, you got showcase your competence one more time so that it will be fresh in the minds of voters.       

R: "The red tide and blue wave ran headfirst into a category 4 hurricane making Florida's resilience less certain and the midterm election more unstable"

R: Rick Scott will carry Ron DeSantis on his coat tails.  I think Floridians deeply appreciate basic competence in the Governor's mansion, and Hurricane Michael did a lot to remind voters that competence matters.   Gillum has been hurt by this, in my opinion.  Ron DeSantis will be the luckiest Governor-elect in America.

R: People vote their pocketbooks. Even the ones that publicly say they won't. 

R: The pendulum shifts every few cycles and i do believe even with Gillum's issues he is well positioned to beat Ron DeSantis.  Also the fact that the ads kept running during a major hurricane in the state is going to hurt both of them.  Governor Scott is smart to do his job and it may pay off for him at the ballot box.  But we shall see.

R: Rick Scott favorabliity ratings historically increase after a natural disaster in Florida as he appears to have a well-oiled machine to respond to these crises, Nelson is at a definite disadvantage here.  

R: In most polls, the U.S. Senate and Governor's races are within the margin of error meaning it's all about turnout.  In the Governor's race, where the candidates are relatively unknown statewide, vis a vis,  the U.S. Senate race,  would look to the debate performances of each Gubernatorial candidate to see how much the needle moves in either direction. 

R: Disasters reward executive leadership. The impact of Hurricane Michael won't be limited to the Panhandle but will have an impact on NPAs in other parts of the state viewing images of President Trump and Governor Scott responding to the crisis with action. 

R: It will be interesting to see how much Hurricane Michael impacts voting. A slight decrease in GOP votes from that area will have a big impact on statewide races.

R: Time is up Bill. Running a 1972 campaign in 2018 won't work and it's showing as Scott is doing laps around him. He was doing it pre-Hurricane Michael and it continues post-Hurricane Michael.

R: This hurricane was a big one but impacts a small percentage of the population. Most Floridians aren't engaged. The Supreme Court battle did more to move votes than the hurricane. That being said Gov Scott showed off his leadership skills during this hurricane. That and his money will push him across the line. In order for Gillum to win, he needs a plus 2 D turnout. That hasn't happened in decades. DeSantis wins in a squeaker and the Democrats are demoralized for another 20 years. 

R: Next time you're out to stage a campaign video limb sawing, Mr. Mayor, don't wear so close to an orange jumpsuit

D: Democrats blew it on Kavanaugh and showed abject ugly partisanship that nearly destroyed a man.   Rule of law still matters to most Americans.   The hurricane may hurt GOP turnout, but that is the only danger or benefit any politician will get from Michael. 

R: Controversy is not the friend of Constitutional Amendments on the ballot in Florida.The 60% threshold is a very high bar. Look for most of the proposed revisions to fail, much like a repeat of 1978 when everything went down in flames…

R: Ron DeSantis may be running one of the worst gubernatorial candidates for Florida in modern history. 

R:  The felons rights amendment will go down in flames because it's a ridiculous overreach and Florida voters aren't stupid.  They generally believe there's no real rehabilitating people who abuse children, batter the elderly, or harm animals

R: I said on last poll that Desantis will win, and still believe that to be the case.  I believe Gillum peaked too soon, and the infusion of new talent and some gray hair into the Desantis campaign has helped to narrow the gap.  It's going to be very, very close.

R: Scott's decision to leave the campaign trail makes no sense. As far as the rest of the Florida is concerned, the storm has come and gone. And the residents of the Panhandle know, it's going to take months if not years to recover from this yet, so he is gaining nothing politically by taking himself off the campaign trail.

R: Even with a probable loss of votes in the deep red Panhandle because of Hurricane Michael, the storm still helps Rick Scott the most. Everyone else, not so much. 

R: DeSantis will win If Trump comes to Florida to campaign for DeSantis. If not—-it will be very close.

R: The Hurricane may do in Rick Scott. He handled it well, but the aftermath will suppress voting in some GOP leaning panhandle counties.

R: It's disappointing that there are no true "stand-out" candidates in 2018.   Going into the cycle, there was a lot of blank canvas but neither party thus far has done a particularly good job of painting a compelling picture as to why the electorate should vote for them.  I think Republicans and Democrats will both look back on this cycle and grimace about the missed opportunity to deliver a death blow to other side.  

R: Gollum's hurricane response may prove a net neutral, as it appears he has Tallahassee on track to be up and running pre- hurricane very soon. This was something many questioned he could do in a timely matter and it appears he passed the test.  However, doing so kept him off the campaign trail and the debate stage where he probably has a slight advantage and helps him raise much needed money. These two pieces considered, a net neutral for Gillum. Meanwhile, Desantis has been nowhere which is probably for the best for his campaign….Scott has done his typical admirable job post hurricane tragedy.  However, the stories of the gangs of looters in the panhandle won't play well if it continues and he needs put and end to these types of stories immediately. Even if it means a higher presence of the National guard. As for Nelson, not much a US Senator can do except comfort and make sure DC does it's job in the recovery effort. A race still too close to call.

R: Hurricane Michael will change the Florida Nov. elections results..

R: At the end of the day, FL voters will evaluate if they want a highly educated credentialed, military veteran and successful leader in Congress, versus a mayor of Tallahassee who is currently under an FBI investigation. The momentum (and "womentum") is with DeSantis….Gov. Rick Scott has done a phenomenal job with the FL economy and this hurricane relief effort. The next U.S. FL Senator is  going to be Rick Scott.

R: Trump's pending visit to Florida for DeSantis rally will be more help than hurt for DeSantis.  Without strong base turnout it won't matter on NPA voters.  

R: Scott was helped by the storm — competent, on the scene, and in command — as was Gillum. All Andrew had to do was stay out of the way and let the mutual aid crews make him look like a hero. He did, and they did. … Everyone is trying to calculate the impact of Hurricane Michael on north Florida turnout, and it's a question that will absolutely decide the election for both the Governor's race and the Senate. Without firewalling the Panhandle, it's hard for either Scott or DeSantis to get home. This is THE question in the next three weeks.

R: In my over 40 years of watching Florida Politics, I have never seen such chaos and divisiveness, and lack of respect among people. It is so disgusting. Maybe I won't vote at all!

R: Hurricane Michael should help Scott with people who vote, but to the extent it suppresses panhandle votes – because people are worried about their own lives, not voting – it may end up a wash. Desantis missed an opportunity to hang out with his buddy Matt Gaetz and get major face time. All Gillum's efforts did were remind people how poorly he reacted during Hermine and Irma.

R: Be prepared for lawsuits, primarily in the Hurricane Michael region related to disenfranchisement of voters. And it might be the Republicans who file suit since there could be 'missing' votes favoring them.

D: Requiring a super-majority to raise taxes is something will appeal to most Floridians. If passed it will cripple Florida.

R: there will be surprises, and I suspect they will all lean Trump!

NPA: There will be a sharp increase greater than 25 % in voter turnout compared to 2014 Mid-Term

D: A Small Pink Wave and a Blue Bump…  Both Parties Claim Victory and life goes on.   Next Up!!!  Trump & Reapportionment talk….right around the corner.

D: No mention of how many house seats dems may pick up Adam?? hahaha. 

D: I can't decide whether the winners will be Bill Nelson and Ron DeSantis, or Rick Scott and Andrew Gillum, but Floridians will choose a partisan split for U.S. Senator and Governor for the third time since 1986.  

NPA: Blue wave will be met by a smaller Red Wave and keep Rick Scott in

R: Scott is running one of the best campaigns in the USA and has the best team.  DeSantis is a dud and running a terrible campaign but may be pulled over the finish line kicking and screaming by Scott.  Gillum is a great candidate and doing all he can but is likely just too liberal for Fla thus making DeSantis the luckiest man alive as Gwen would have smoked him. Nelson is Nelson…old and lethargic like his campaign but will still get at least 48.5% because we are pretty purple statewide

D: I cant remember a major hurricane striking FL this close to an election, it'll be very interesting to see how this plays out.  Scott's only two times with above water numbers has been after a hurricane, assuming that this will be the third time will that be enough to take the momentum from Bill Nelson (which he had clearly seized up until a week ago).

D: Scott needs to worry about the Medicare hurricane that McConnell unleashed. After promising that the Trump tax cuts would pay for themselves, the GOP is guilty of the Lie of the Year and will pay at the polls. The far right that has captured the Republican Party publicly claims to want to protect Social Security and Medicare while privately waiting for their moment to gut both. They think both programs are socialism. They will soon find out that most Americans are socialists under their definition. 

D: I don't see a wave yet in our private polling but I do see a lot of undecided voters down-ballot.  If they brake 2-1 or even 3-2 Democratic we'll have a huge wave.

R: Hurricane Michael will potentially have a massive impact on Statewide and Federal Elections. The affected area runs deep red, and we should expect a significantly lower voter turnout in those affected areas. In statewide races, which are already expected to very close, we could be looking at enough of an effect to sway the election.

Rick Scott handled the hurricane like the leader that he is. He took command, communicated effectively and was visible doing what he does best – lead. Mayor Gillum, while highlighted by major news networks took some big hits by using the cleanup efforts in Tallahassee as a photo op instead of actually working along crews. Honestly, Gillum was outshined by one of his own City Commissioners, former Mayor of Tallahassee and former FDP Chair Scott Maddox, who used his elected role as an opportunity to actually help the citizens of his community and to date is still out working the streets with crews.

Both Bill Nelson and Ron DeSantis took a backseat when it came to coverage of the storm and related relief efforts, losing valuable campaign time.

R: President Trump's absence post-primary has been interesting…DeSantis may believe Trump's presence will hurt rather than help. And he would be right.

R: By the time they flip the ballot over they will be overwhelmed with reading all of those answers – expect huge undervotes on the ballots down the line.

The Florida Insiders surveyed this week included:

Sam Bell, Lester Abberger, Joseph Abruzzo, Erin Aebel, Tom Alte, Jason Altmire, Fernand Amandi, Donna Arduin, Dave Aronberg, Brad Ashwell, Brian Ballard, Ryan Banfill, Christina Barker, Scott Barnhart, Dick Batchelor, Ashley Bauman, Alan Becker, Geoffrey Becker, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Bilbao, David Bishop, Barney Bishop Iii, Greg Blair, Katie Bohnett, Rick Boylan, Paul Bradshaw, Dale Brill, Alex Burgos, Dominic M. Calabro, Christian Camara, Bernie Campbell, Kristy Campbell, Bill Carlson, Chip Case, Betty Castor, Chris Cate, Kevin Cate, Mitch Ceasar, Jill Chamberlin, Jim Cherry, Alan Clendenin, Brad Coker, David Colburn, Mike Colodny, Hunter Conrad, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Husein Cumber, Darrick D. Mcghee, Jim Davis, Justin Day, Hayden Dempsey, Lourdes Diaz, Pablo Diaz, Víctor Dimaio, Doc Dockery, Brett Doster, John Dowless, Bob Doyle, Barry Edwards, Eric Eikenberg, Mike Fasano, Peter Feaman, Cesar Fernandez, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Mark Foley, Kirk Fordham, Pamela Burch Fort, Towson Fraser, Ellen Freidin, John French, Jack Furnari, Eduardo Gamarra, Wayne Garcia, Dan Gelber, Julia Gill Woodward, Susan Glickman, Alma Gonzalez, Adam Goodman, Pamela Goodman, Cindy Graves, Ron Greenstein, Joe Gruters, Ron Gunzburger, Mike Hamby, Marion Hammer, Mike Hanna, Abel Harding, Matt Harringer, Chris Hartline, Rich Heffley, Bill Helmich, Ann Herberger, Max Herrle, Mike Hightower, Jim Horne, Aubrey Jewett, Christina Johnson, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Jeff Johnson, Ken Jones, Stafford Jones, Eric Jotkoff, Doug Kaplan, Henry Kelley, Omar Khan, John Konkus, Jeff Kottkamp, Kartik Krishnaiyer, Stephanie Kunkel, Bill Lee, Alan Levine, Tom Lewis, Jose Mallea, Al Maloof, Javier Manjarres, Roly Marante, William March, Beth Matuga, Stephanie McClung, Nancy McGowan, Susan McGrath, Clarence McKee, Seth McKee, Frank Mirabella, Paul Mitchell, Travis Moore, Samuel Neimeiser, Meredith O'Rourke, Stephanie Owens, Brandon Patty, Darryl Paulson, Anthony Pedicini, Juan Peñalosa, Kirk Pepper, Evelyn Perez-Verdia, Rachel Perrin Rogers, Joe Perry, Sean Phillippi, Fred Piccolo, Gretchen Picotte, Ron Pierce, Bob Poe, Evan Power, David Rancourt, Marc Reichelderfer, George Riley, Jim Rimes, Franco Ripple, Monica Rodriguez, Jason Roth, Sarah Rumpf, Ron Sachs, Steve Schale, Tangela Sears, Alex Setzer, Stephen Shiver, Bud Shorstein, Alex Sink, Patrick Slevin, Susan Smith, Sharon Smoley, John Stemberger, Alan Stonecipher, Kevin Sweeny, Jim Towey, Greg C. Truax, Frank Tsamoutales, Steve Uhlfelder, Jason Unger, Greg Ungru, Matthew Van Name, Steven Vancore, Anthony Verdugo, Ashley Walker, Peter Wallace, Nancy Watkins, Robert Watkins, Kevin Watson, John Wehrung, Andrew Weinstein, Susie Wiles, Rick Wilson, Zachariah Zachariah, Christian Ziegler, Anna Cruz, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Andy Ford, Rick Asnani, Fred Karlinsky, April Schiff, Jon M. Ausman, Joshua Karp, Steve Geller, Pat Neal, Rodney Barreto, Phillip Thompson, Jamie Wilson, Scott Peelen, Jack Levine, Screven Watson, Ron Greenstein, Reggie Cardozo, Slater Bayliss, Jamie Miller, Chris Hand, Matthew Isbell, Robert Wexler, Terrie Rizzo, Brad Herold, Richard Swann, Matthew Corrigan, Harold Mills, Pte Dunbar, Roger Austin, Caroline Rowland, Karl Koch, Cory Tilley, Tom Scherberger, Josh Geise, Thomas Grigsby, Michael Barnett, David Ramba, Ron Klein, Edie Ousley.