Larger iPhone 6 May Cause Massive Spike in Upgrades, Lure Android Users

Apple's upcoming iPhone 6 is widely rumored to include a larger display, which could encourage a significant number of users to upgrade in 2014, according to analyst Brian Marshall of ISI Group, who released a note to investors today.

Echoing past iPhone 6 rumors, Marshall suggests Apple will release two versions of the phone, one with a 4.7-inch screen and one with a 5.5-inch screen. The launch of two phones, both of which offer a total redesign of the existing 4-inch iPhone 5s, could spark a massive upgrade cycle.

iphone6-sizes
Apple's current installed base is estimated to be at 260 million users, and ISI Group calculates that half of today's iPhone purchases are made by upgraders, users who are upgrading their iPhones from an existing iPhone to a new version of the product.

ISI indicates that while the upgrade rate (percentage of installed base upgrading devices in a given quarter) was at 10 to 11 percent in 2011–2012, it has now dropped to approximately 9 percent because users have fewer reasons to upgrade with the iPhone 5c and 5s not introducing any significant design changes.

iphone6upgrades
Peak quarters have seen upgrade rates of 12 to 14 percent, and ISI expects a similar upgrade rate during the second half of 2014 when the iPhone 6 is launched, resulting in a higher number of sales. An iPhone 6 with an increased screen size may also lure customers who have switched to Android from the iPhone because of the latter's lack of a large display.

"Large-screen envy" is prevalent among the iPhone installed base and we believe a ~5” form-factor iPhone would spark a massive upgrade cycle as well as many "Android switchers" returning back to the iPhone (we refer to this as the “mother lode” of all Apple upgrade cycles).

Citing both "large-screen envy" and "pent-up demand" ISI Group suggests the new iPhone 6 models could result in an extra $3.00 earnings per share following release in the second half of 2014.

Higher demand for an iPhone during a redesign year is not unreasonable, as it has now been two years since the 2012 introduction of the iPhone 5. While the iPhone 5s included multiple internal improvements and the Touch ID fingerprint sensor, it retained the same 4-inch display and design of the iPhone 5, as did the iPhone 5c, which was just a repackaging of the existing model.

Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

ZacNicholson Avatar
131 months ago
if bigger means more upgrades then my gf would have left me years ago for a bigger man :D
Score: 32 Votes (Like | Disagree)
spyguy10709 Avatar
131 months ago
I'd buy it...

Honestly, iOS, with it's strong App Store, and high build quality - on a bigger screen - is perfect for me.
Score: 26 Votes (Like | Disagree)
keysofanxiety Avatar
131 months ago
if bigger means more upgrades then my gf would have left me years ago for a bigger man :D

I thought the same, and then I realised she was using the Android ecosystem behind my back. I caught her in bed texting with a Note 3. "It's not what it looks like!" she gasped, holding her hands over the stylus to cover the shame of it.

We argued, and inevitably it became my fault.

"Well, maybe if you let me customise things now and then", she grumbled, sliding in an SD card to demonstrate this. "Being with iOS, being with you ... It's just the same thing over and over again. I'm bored. I'm smothered!"

"Fine!" I roared, holding my home button in defiance. "Siri -- delete contact: 'girlfriend'."

"I'm sorry", Siri replied: "I don't understand "repeat combat girlfriend".

:(
Score: 25 Votes (Like | Disagree)
MacFather Avatar
131 months ago
Deleted.
Score: 20 Votes (Like | Disagree)
tooloud10 Avatar
131 months ago
A [significantly] larger screen is the only Android feature that I would like to see on the iPhone.
Score: 17 Votes (Like | Disagree)
longofest Avatar
131 months ago
An iPhone 6 with an increased screen size may also lure customers who have switched to Android from the iPhone because of the latter's lack of a large display.

In the meantime, Apple just gives up on its existing users who actually appreciate the iPhone's smaller size?

Are there no rumors to indicate that Apple will keep a model with the existing 4" screen?
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

reset password request iphone

Warning: Apple Users Targeted in Phishing Attack Involving Rapid Password Reset Requests

Tuesday March 26, 2024 4:34 pm PDT by
Phishing attacks taking advantage of Apple's password reset feature have become increasingly common, according to a report from KrebsOnSecurity. Multiple Apple users have been targeted in an attack that bombards them with an endless stream of notifications or multi-factor authentication (MFA) messages in an attempt to cause panic so they'll respond favorably to social engineering. An...
maxresdefault

Apple to Launch New iPad Pro and iPad Air Models in May

Thursday March 28, 2024 11:07 am PDT by
Apple will introduce new iPad Pro and iPad Air models in early May, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Gurman previously suggested the new iPads would come out in March, and then April, but the timeline has been pushed back once again. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Apple is working on updates to both the iPad Pro and iPad Air models. The iPad Pro models will...
Generic iOS 18 Feature Purple

iOS 18: What to Expect From 'Biggest' Update in iPhone's History

Wednesday March 27, 2024 11:10 am PDT by
At least some Apple software engineers continue to believe that iOS 18 will be the "biggest" update in the iPhone's history, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Below, we recap rumored features and changes for the iPhone. "The iOS 18 update is expected to be the most ambitious overhaul of the iPhone's software in its history, according to people working on the upgrade," wrote Gurman, in a r...
maxresdefault

Apple Announces WWDC 2024 Event for June 10 to 14

Tuesday March 26, 2024 10:02 am PDT by
Apple today announced that its 35th annual Worldwide Developers Conference is set to take place from Monday, June 10 to Friday, June 14. As with WWDC events since 2020, WWDC 2024 will be an online event that is open to all developers at no cost. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. WWDC 2024 will include online sessions and labs so that developers can learn about new...
apple maps 3d feature

Apple Maps May Gain Custom Routes With iOS 18

Tuesday March 26, 2024 3:10 pm PDT by
Apple may be planning to add support for "custom routes" in Apple Maps in iOS 18, according to code reviewed by MacRumors. Apple Maps does not currently offer a way to input self-selected routes, with Maps users limited to Apple's pre-selected options, but that may change in iOS 18. Apple has pushed an iOS 18 file to its maps backend labeled "CustomRouteCreation." While not much is revealed...
General iOS 17 Feature Orange Purple

Apple Releases Revised Versions of iOS 17.4.1 and iPadOS 17.4.1 With Updated Build Number

Wednesday March 27, 2024 5:59 am PDT by
Apple on late Tuesday released revised versions of iOS 17.4.1 and iPadOS 17.4.1 with an updated build number of 21E237, according to MacRumors contributor Aaron Perris. The updates previously had a build number of 21E236. The revised updates are available for all iPhone and iPad models that are compatible with iOS 17 and iPadOS 17, but they can only be installed via the Finder app on macOS...
applephilschiller

Apple's Phil Schiller Works 80 Hours a Week Overseeing App Store

Wednesday March 27, 2024 2:03 pm PDT by
With the App Store and app ecosystem undergoing major changes in the European Union, The Wall Street Journal today shared a profile on App Store chief Phil Schiller, who is responsible for the App Store. Though Schiller transitioned from marketing chief to "Apple Fellow" in 2020 to take a step back from Apple and spend more time on personal projects and friends, he is reportedly working...