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3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast
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Apr 18 |
Apr 19 |
Apr 20
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4-5 (G1)
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3 (G0)
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2-3 (G0)
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Max Kp |
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M-Lat
25%
H-Lat
60% |
M-Lat
05%
H-Lat
25% |
M-Lat
10%
H-Lat
40% |
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Probabilities |
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Latest SWPC Forecast (@ 00:30 + 12:30 UTC)
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Geomagnetic Field and Aurora
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Global D-LAYER Absorption
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Current Solar Flare Threat
C-Flare: 99%
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M-Flare: 75%
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X-Flare: 20%
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Proton: 20%
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Latest Space Weather News
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Space Weather Update
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April 18, 2024 @ 21:10 UTC
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The expansive complex of sunspots in the southeast quadrant now consists of five separate active regions. The central section of the group was split in half with newly assigned AR 3647 deemed to be its own individual region. The center of this magnetic mess continues to be the main driver of solar activity on Thursday with number of low level M-Flares detected. The solar flux index for April 18th is 227. This is the highest it has been since January 2023, excluding the 343 reading on February 17th, 2023 which was flare enhanced.
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Space Weather Update
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April 17, 2024 @ 23:45 UTC
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Below is a look at the visible solar disk as we head into Thursday courtesy of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Solar activity during the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with a number of upper level C-Flares and one low level M-Flare. Much of this activity has taken place within the large footprint of AR 3637, 3638, 3643 and newly assigned AR 3645. In the northeast quadrant, AR 3639 was also responsible for occasional C-Flares. There will remain a chance for an isolated solar flare above the M5.0 levels within the next 24 hours. No Earth directed eruptions were observed in available coronagraph imagery today. With the plethora of sunspots currently facing Earth, the solar flux index for Wednesday is 217.
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Bz South / Geomagnetic Storm Observed
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April 16, 2024 @ 17:20 UTC
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The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried past Earth via the solar wind has drifted to a south pointing position. Elevated geomagnetic activity (Kp4) is currently being observed with a chance for minor (G1) geomagnetic storming now in the forecast. Aurora sky watchers at higher latitudes should be alert during the next 12-24 hours.
UPDATE: The Minor (G1) geomagnetic storm threshold was reached at 19:10 UTC (Apr 16).
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Space Weather Update
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April 15, 2024 @ 20:00 UTC
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Solar activity remains at moderate levels with a number of M-Flares detected on Monday. The largest of these was an M4.0 solar flare within the past half hour (19:32 UTC / Apr 15) around AR 3639 in the northeast quadrant. This region was also responsible for the majority of M-Flares today and a number of minor C-Flares. So far non of this activity looks to be associated with Earth directed eruptions. AR 3634 in the northwest quadrant also produced a low level M-Flare at 14:04 UTC (Apr 15). There is currently at least 10 numbered active regions on the Earth facing side of the visible solar disk. The latest solar flare threat risk is at 60% for additional M-Flares and a 5% chance for an isolated X-Flare.
Please note that the X-Ray graphic on the SolarHam website is still not updating properly. This is stored on the NOAA/SWPC server and hopefully it is fixed soon.
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