Ukraine's prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, was today under pressure to concede defeat in the country's presidential election after international observers this afternoon hailed yesterday's poll as fair and "truly competitive".
Observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said there were no indications of serious fraud and described the vote as an "impressive display" of democracy. "For everyone in Ukraine this election was a victory," João Soares, president of the OSCE's parliamentary assembly, said.
With almost all votes counted, the Russian-leaning opposition leader, Viktor Yanukovych, had a clear 2.65% lead over Tymoshenko. So far, however, Tymoshenko has refused to recognise her opponent's victory, cancelling a press conference scheduled for this afternoon.
The OSCE hinted that Tymoshenko should admit defeat, noting that in any election there are "winners and losers. It is now time for the country's political leaders to listen to the people's verdict and make sure the transition of power is peaceful and constructive," Soares suggested.
The emphatically positive verdict is in stark contrast to five years ago when Yanukovych's bungled attempts to fix the vote provoked the Orange revolution. Yanukovych subsequently lost a third round vote to Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's outgoing president.
"Some say the Orange revolution has failed. I say no. Thanks to the Orange revolution democratic elections in Ukraine are now a reality," said Matyas Eörsi, head of the delegation of the Council of Europe's parliamentary assembly. Ukraine's chances of joining the EU had been significantly enhanced, the observers noted.
The OSCE's comments make it virtually impossible for Tymoshenko to sustain a legal challenge against the outcome. Speaking before polls closed, Tymoshenko accused Yanukovych's camp of fraud in his stronghold of eastern Ukraine. The observers said there were some minor irregularities but said this did not affect the overall result.
Yanukovych will move swiftly to consolidate his power. Tymoshenko faces the unenviable choice of resigning as prime minister over the next few days or watching her fragile parliamentary coalition collapse. After that a new pro-Yanukovych coalition is certain to force her out.
Yanukovych's Party of the Regions is likely to lure deputies from Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc ‑ currently in coalition with Tymoshenko ‑ as well as the Communists and other minority factions. Two possible candidates are in the frame for the prime minister's job ‑ Borys Kolesnikov, Yanukovych's close ally, and Yuriy Yekhanurov, a former prime minister from Yushchenko's bloc.
"There is a psychological aspect to Yanukovych's victory," one Ukrainian diplomat said. "Irrespective of the narrow gap between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, for the political elite and for state servants Yanukovych is the winner." His inauguration would take place early next month, the diplomat said.
Yanukovych's task would be to form his own government, the diplomat said, since without one he would be a "lame duck" president. Once he had secured a parliamentary majority Yanukovych could make his first foreign trip, probably to Brussels.
Analysts said that ‑ unlike in 2004 ‑ Ukrainians had little appetite for protest. Several hundred Yanukovych supporters demonstrated today outside the central election committee in Kiev. But otherwise the mood on the streets was subdued, with no sense of an impending second revolution.
Yanukovych's urgent challenge as president will be to eschew populist gestures and restore the economy. Ukraine is facing serious fiscal shortages. The International Monetary Fund has refused to lend it any more money until it carries out previously agreed reforms. Since 2008 the national currency, the hryvnia, has lost 48% of its value.
A breakdown of yesterday's results showed that Ukraine remains deeply divided, with the Russian-speaking east and south overwhelmingly backing Yanukovych, and the Ukrainian-speaking west and centre, including Kiev, voting for Tymoshenko.
More than a million voters chose to vote against both candidates, reflecting widespread disillusionment