College Football Teams in Perfect Position to Be a Playoff Spoiler

Greg Wallace@gc_wallaceX.com LogoFeatured ColumnistNovember 14, 2017

College Football Teams in Perfect Position to Be a Playoff Spoiler

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    South Carolina looms as one of a number of spoilers for the College Football Playoff.
    South Carolina looms as one of a number of spoilers for the College Football Playoff.Sean Rayford/Associated Press

    With two weeks left in the 2017 college football regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is clearing up, but more chaos lies ahead. This past weekend, four Top 10 teams were defeated, while No. 1 Alabama was pushed to the brink at Mississippi State before pulling out a hard-fought 31-24 victory with under 30 seconds remaining. 

    If history is our guide, the upheaval isn’t over. Four FBS unbeatens remain (Alabama, Central Florida, Miami and Wisconsin) but in each of the playoff’s first three seasons, only one unbeaten per season has made the four-team field. If that trend holds, at least three unbeatens will fall in the next three weeks. We could be in for a finish like 2007, when a two-loss LSU team made the BCS Championship Game and defeated Oklahoma to win the national title.

    Where will the playoff spoilers come from? We have a few ideas. Here’s a look at five teams that have a chance to shake up the playoff picture in the final weeks of the regular season. Teams were chosen based on their accumulated statistics as well as history against the highly ranked foes they’ll take on.

Georgia Tech

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    TaQuon Marshall and Georgia Tech have an impressive flexbone option offense.
    TaQuon Marshall and Georgia Tech have an impressive flexbone option offense.David Goldman/Associated Press

    Nov. 25: Georgia at Georgia Tech 

    Even after an ugly 40-17 loss at then-No. 10 Auburn, Georgia is still a legit College Football Playoff contender. The Bulldogs are 9-1 and locked in for an SEC Championship Game clash vs.  Alabama in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

    But before the Bulldogs can play in the lap of luxury, they'll have to take care of a Rambling Wreck a few miles away first. Next Saturday, Georgia travels to Georgia Tech for a rivalry showdown with the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium. "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate" is one of the South's best (and most hotly contested) rivalries, and it isn't an easy game for the Bulldogs to prepare for in a week's time.

    Head coach Paul Johnson's flexbone offense is tough for opponents to stop. Georgia Tech averages over 320 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most in the nation, and the Jackets love to control the clock. They've had success against Georgia recently as well, having won two of the last three meetings, including a 28-27 decision last November. And they're improving, as last week's 28-22 upset of Virginia Tech showed. 

    In fact, each of the last four meetings between Georgia and Georgia Tech have been decided by no more than seven points, including a pair in overtime, with the teams splitting the games. With Georgia Tech potentially playing for a bowl game at home against its rival, this has all the markings of a trap for the Bulldogs. 

Michigan

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    Jim Harbaugh and Michigan have enjoyed a solid 2017 season.
    Jim Harbaugh and Michigan have enjoyed a solid 2017 season.Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

    Nov. 18: Michigan at Wisconsin

    Wisconsin has emerged as the Big Ten's top contender for a playoff berth. The Badgers made a statement with Saturday's 38-14 rout of then-No. 20 Iowa, holding the Hawkeyes to 66 yards of total offense a week after they hung 55 points on Ohio State. However, Paul Chryst's team still has a major stumbling block ahead when Michigan visits Camp Randall Stadium Saturday.

    The Wolverines are still alive for the Big Ten East title despite losses to Penn State and Michigan State, and they're 8-2 on the season. They have the nation's No. 9 scoring defense, allowing 16.4 points per game, and a strong run game keyed by Karan Higdon, who has a pair of 200-yard rushing games against Indiana and Minnesota.

    Wisconsin loves to play physical football, but Michigan and Jim Harbaugh will be ready for a fight. Expect a tight, low-scoring game that could derail the Badgers and the Big Ten's hopes of a College Football Playoff bid. 

South Carolina

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    Jake Bentley and South Carolina have shown significant improvement this fall.
    Jake Bentley and South Carolina have shown significant improvement this fall.Sean Rayford/Associated Press

    Nov. 25: Clemson at South Carolina 

    With Saturday's 31-14 win over Florida State, Clemson is 9-1 and locked in for another trip to the ACC Championship Game against unbeaten Miami, which makes it a strong contender to make its third consecutive College Football Playoff field. The Tigers have moved past a road loss at Syracuse and look like one of the nation's best teams, but they do have a legit challenge remaining on their schedule at South Carolina.

    Clemson-South Carolina is one of the nation's most heated rivalries, and Williams-Brice Stadium is an underrated environment when the Gamecocks are playing well. In Will Muschamp's second season, South Carolina is improved with a 7-3 record and is 4-1 at home. The Gamecocks have a top-30 scoring defense, allowing 20.6 points per game, which could give the Tigers' offense trouble.

    While Clemson whipped South Carolina at home last year, 56-7, Dabo Swinney is 1-3 in Columbia as the Tigers' head coach, and a bad Gamecocks team pushed Clemson to the wire two years ago before falling 37-32. This is worth watching as a potential slipping point for the Tigers.

Virginia

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    Kurt Benkert and Virginia could give Miami some serious trouble if the Hurricanes aren't careful.
    Kurt Benkert and Virginia could give Miami some serious trouble if the Hurricanes aren't careful.Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

    Nov. 18: Virginia at Miami

    Over the last two weeks, Miami proved itself as a legit College Football Playoff contender. Following a dominant 28-10 win over Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes ended Notre Dame's playoff hopes with a 41-8 thrashing at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami is riding a 14-game win streak and is 9-0, one of only four remaining FBS unbeaten along with Alabama, Wisconsin and Central Florida.

    However, the Hurricanes have shown a tendency to play down to their foes. Before ripping Tech and Notre Dame, Miami won games against Florida State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and North Carolina (all of whom are unranked) by a combined 18 points. Virginia comes calling Saturday, and the 6-4 Cavaliers are improved in Bronco Mendenhall's second season at the helm.

    If it comes down to late-game execution, Miami could be in trouble. The Hurricanes have scored touchdowns on just 55.6 percent of their red-zone trips, ranking 95th nationally. Meanwhile, UVA ranks No. 9 nationally in red-zone defense, allowing scores just 71.4 percent of the time.

    Miami will need to be motivated after two emotional home games to avoid a mental letdown against the Cavaliers, especially with an ACC title game showdown with Atlantic Division champion Clemson looming.

West Virginia

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    Will Grier has been an excellent fit in West Virginia's offense in his first season in Morgantown.
    Will Grier has been an excellent fit in West Virginia's offense in his first season in Morgantown.Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

    Nov. 25: West Virginia at Oklahoma

    After Saturday's 38-20 win over then-No. 6 TCU, Oklahoma has emerged as the Big 12's best College Football Playoff hope. The Sooners have a 9-1 record, with the only loss coming to Iowa State, and the nation's best quarterback in Baker Mayfield, who has thrown for 3,559 yards with 31 touchdowns and five interceptions. They are a strong bet to make the revived Big 12 Championship, but to qualify for the playoff, they'll have to solve West Virginia.

    The Mountaineers come to Norman to end the regular season on Nov. 25. Dana Holgorsen's group runs the Air Raid offense and averages 39.0 points per game, the 12th-most in the nation. Transfer quarterback Will Grier has been excellent in his first season in Morgantown, throwing for 3,440 yards with 34 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. That should be concerning for an Oklahoma secondary that allows 263.4 passing yards per game and was forced to outduel Oklahoma State, which also runs the Air Raid, in a 62-52 win.

    Mayfield is a prolific passer, and he'll need to be at his best to help the Sooners offense keep pace with the Mountaineers' fast-paced passing attack. 

    All statistics via CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.

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