It’s not why he got into the governor’s race, but Tom Tancredo’s decision to run as Republican next year could shed light on two unanswered questions from the 2016 election. Tancredo announced his decision on Tuesday.
The first is the degree to which Colorado voters have embraced the right-wing nationalism promoted by former White House adviser Steve Bannon.
Though Tancredo was popular with immigration hardliners long before President Donald Trump talked about building a wall, his ties to Bannon — the two men talked a few weeks before Tancredo launched his campaign — could make-or-break Tancredo depending on the level of Bannon’s involvement and the resonance of his message.
“If that becomes the definition of the Tancredo candidacy, we will see how popular that approach is in a Republican primary,” said Dick Wadhams, former state GOP chair.
The second big question is how much anti-establishment candidates such as Tancredo could benefit from a change in election rules approved last year by Colorado voters.
The change gave unaffiliated voters, sometimes called independents, the ability to vote in party primaries without registering as a Democrat or a Republican. A Tancredo candidacy could showcase where these Republican-leaning voters fall on the political spectrum: to the middle or the far right.
“It’s the great unknown,” said GOP political strategist Tyler Sandberg. He said unaffiliated turnout could “depend on what the issues are in the race.”
There about 1.2 million active unaffiliated voters in Colorado, slightly more than the state’s roughly 1 million Democrats and 1 million Republicans, according to state records.
One reason Tancredo is a good test of both questions is his long history of running for office in Colorado on pretty much the same hardline-immigration platform.
This will be the third time the former congressman has pursued the governor’s mansion, having lost in 2010 and 2014, and his message this time isn’t much different, other than co-opting one of Trump’s catchphrases.
“There is a swamp even here in Colorado,” Tancredo said. “There’s a Republican establishment. There’s a Democratic establishment. Both of them want to see very few changes in certain areas, especially in the area of what the state can do about immigration — illegal immigration in particular.”
To that end, Tancredo said one proposal he likes is the idea of making immigrant-friendly municipalities — sometimes called “sanctuary cities” — liable to lawsuits if immigrants living illegally in the U.S. were to commit a crime there.
It’s that kind of approach, coupled with a series of controversies over the years, that has made Tancredo one of Colorado’s most widely recognized politicians.
During his 2010 gubernatorial run, he said President Barack Obama was a bigger threat to the U.S. than al-Qaeda, and he once complained that immigration policies had turned Miami into a “third world country.” His current run is fueled in part by frustration with his fellow Republicans for not protesting when a Colorado Springs resort canceled a white nationalist conference where he was supposed to speak.
“People know who I am,” Tancredo said. “I have great name recognition.”
On one hand, “that’s really a good thing,” he said.
But the “bad thing is that I have great name recognition. There are a lot of people out there, I know, who don’t take a like-minded position on things.”
If Tancredo were to capture the Republican nomination, he would have an uphill climb in the general election if the results of 2016 are any indication.
Though Trump won the White House, he lost Colorado to Hillary Clinton by about 5 percentage points. It’s why some Democrats are almost rooting for Tancredo to win the primary.
“Tom Tancredo’s candidacy is an indication of just how extreme the GOP has become,” said Eric Walker, a spokesman for the state Democratic party.
But his high-level of name ID is the reason Tancredo will be tough to beat in a primary, said several GOP operatives.
“He will start off as a frontrunner. There’s no doubt,” Wadhams said. “He has a hardcore base of 20 percent in a Republican primary.”
In 2014, Tancredo barely lost a four-way primary to Bob Beauprez, garnering about about 27 percent of the vote, and one former Republican state lawmaker said Tancredo again could benefit from a crowded field.
“His only path to victory is if there are five or more people on the ballot,” said former state Sen. Greg Brophy, who is backing 18th Judicial District Attorney George Brauchler. “I think he has a floor of support and ceiling of support and they’re both in the low 20s.”
The GOP candidates in the race so far include Brauchler, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, Mitt Romney’s nephew Doug Robinson and former state lawmaker Victor Mitchell. Attorney General Cynthia Coffman also said she is weighing a run.
One immediate effect of Tancredo’s entry is that it could make it harder for Brauchler to grab the nomination, as Brauchler has spent much of his time courting voters who might be inclined to support Tancredo. In addition, Brauchler so far hasn’t raised enough money to easily reach a statewide audience.
“Brauchler was clearly working a campaign that was trying to occupy that pretty conservative lane of the party,” Wadhams said.
That dynamic could provide a pathway for Stapleton to make a move, as the former state treasurer has locked up many of the state’s big donors — many of them through a super-PAC type committee that’s supporting his bid.
But the strategy is not without risk either, as it sets the stage for an outsider vs. insider battle with Stapleton, a second cousin to former President George W. Bush, playing the part of the establishment candidate.
Whether that fight is enough to attract Bannon’s support is another question.
The executive chairman of Breitbart News, where Tancredo is a contributor, has launched a nationwide effort to target GOP candidates he sees as too establishment.
Asked whether he had Bannon’s support, Tancredo said Tuesday the two men hadn’t spoken in weeks. Bannon did not respond to an email seeking comment.
At least one Trump supporter, however, has taken notice – Robert Blaha, who chaired the president’s Colorado campaign.
“Tom is a very outspoken guy who has taken some edgy positions over the years and people are looking for something outside the mainstream,” he said. “It’s going to be interesting how he shapes up with the rest of the field.”
Staff reporter John Frank contributed to this report.
