Things are heating up again after a few years of holding steady.
New research published Monday finds that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, a key contributor to climate change, are predicted to rise again in 2017 after three years of flat growth.
"The return to growth in global emissions in 2017 is largely due to growth in Chinese emissions, projected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2017 after two years with declining emissions," said Dr. Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo who led one of the studies. "The use of coal, the main fuel source in China, may rise by 3 percent due to stronger growth in industrial production and lower hydro-power generation due to less rainfall."
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industrial sources are expected to grow by about two percent overall worldwide as GDP is expected to rise by 3.6 percent according to the IMF. U.S. and European Union emissions are still declining, but at a slower rate than in recent years.
Another bright spot in the research is the rapid growth of renewable energy of 14 percent per year over the past half decade. Stanford scientist Rob Jackson chairs the Global Carbon Project, which led the studies. He says he's cautiously optimistic that the trend towards more renewables will remain strong, even as the Trump administration rolls back earlier climate policies.
"The federal government can slow the development of renewables and low-carbon technologies, but it can't stop it," Jackson said. "That transition is being driven by the low cost of new renewable infrastructure, and it's being driven by new consumer preferences."
Still, lead researcher Corinne Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, says the return of increasing emissions is very disappointing.
"This year we have seen how climate change can amplify the impacts of hurricanes with more intense rainfall, higher sea levels and warmer ocean conditions favoring more powerful storms. This is a window into the future. We need to reach a peak in global emissions in the next few years and drive emissions down rapidly afterwards to address climate change and limit its impacts."
