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The Houston Astros are champions of baseball and have fulfilled the prophecy of Ben Reiter at Sports Illustrated when he proclaimed three years ago on the cover the franchise would be hoisting the Commissioner’s trophy in 2017. The emergence of first round draft selections Alex Bregman (second overall in 2015), Carlos Correa (first overall in 2012), and George Springer (eleventh overall in 2011) perfectly complimented Venezuelan amateur free agent Jose Altuve in forming a nucleus of extraordinary and burgeoning talent. Astute acquisitions of prominent veterans such as the recently retired Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Justin Verlander transformed a highly talented ball club into a world champion.
Very similar to what had occurred last year with the Chicago Cubs trio of Joe Maddon, Theo Epstein, and Jed Hoyer, Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch and General Manager Jeff Luhnow have now become baseball’s latest and most desirable dynamic duo. As franchises desperately look for any perceived advantage in the ultra-competitive race for October glory, the relationship between manager and general manager has become critical in every sense of the word. While it goes without saying that a healthy and productive relationship between these two parties is essential for success under any circumstances, the data revolution within the sport is once again redefining working conditions between the front office and the dugout. Today, it goes well beyond a peaceful coexistence.
Right before our eyes, a seismic shift is occurring when it comes to the job qualifications for major league managers . In recent weeks, we have seen highly respected and accomplished managers such as Dusty Baker and Joe Girardi fall victim to the latest preferences of team executives and general managers. Baker, a three-time National League Manager of the Year (1993, 1997, and 2000) who currently ranks fourteenth on the all-time career victories list (1,863) was considered by many to be a “player’s manager” and not beholden to spreadsheets when making in game decisions. A veteran of over 2,000 games as an outfielder for four major league ball clubs throughout the course of nineteen seasons, Baker could speak to ball players on an intimate level and truly empathize with them. However, he would never be mistaken as a disciple of Bill James or an avid reader of Fangraphs.com.
Girardi, a Northwestern University graduate with a degree in Industrial Engineering, is a man of discipline with a ferocious work ethic. Besides winning 988 ball games over eleven seasons as a manager and the 2009 World Series his unrelenting intensity began to affect a clubhouse filled with youngsters who required a softer approach. The 2006 National League Manager of the Year wasn’t afraid to utilize analytics in his decision making process and was at times unfairly criticized for managing by the numbers. Similar to Baker, Girardi was a former ball player who achieved success as a member of three world championship ball clubs for the New York Yankees (1996, 1998, and 1999).
Without question, Baker and Girardi possess several attractive qualities as managers that many would consider to be desirable or even requisite skills. However, team executives and general managers are actively looking for a new group of candidates that possess a different set of skills. While it appears unlikely that Baker will get another chance to manage a major league ball club based solely upon the current market preferences for analytics, Girardi has a chance to reinvent himself and address his deficiencies. Time away from the daily rigors and pressures of managing a major league ball club will serve Girardi well.
Discipline is strongly needed when managing a major league ball club, but so is the ability to make meaningful connections with ball players through verbal and non-verbal cues. A ball player’s ego might seem grossly over inflated due to money and notoriety, but it is also a fragile organism that needs constant nurturing and support. Regular and authentic encouragement from a manager can go a long way in making a deep connection with a generation of ball players who were born during the last decade of the twentieth century.
However, there are some who still subscribe to the notion that modern athletes are coddled and thin skinned when it comes to constructive feedback. It’s safe to say Billy Martin and Earl Weaver would struggle mightily in today’s game with regard to personal interactions with ball players. Using the media to deliver messages to ball players on the back pages of newspapers is no longer an accepted practice. Neither is embarrassing and berating ball players publicly or even privately. The fundamental focus needs to be on how the constructive feedback is being delivered and the overall tone. While the “tough love” approach delivers the message in a sobering fashion, it could be doing more harm than good when building a relationship between ball player and manager. The messaging must be clear and constructive, but without harsh emotions. It is very easy to misconstrue anger with passion. Managers today must disseminate and implement while constantly improving methods of communication .
If a major league ball club hired an executive search firm to assist in their pursuit of a new manager, the first order of business would obviously be a job description. So, what would it look like based upon the preferences and trends within the game today?
- The candidate must have a predisposition and high level of comfort reviewing endless amounts of data.
- The candidate must be well versed in the latest research and technological advancements within the game.
- The candidate must demonstrate a willingness to regularly meet with programmers, analysts, and data architects to discuss lineup constructions, pitching changes, defensive alignments, and in-game strategies that coincide with the overall goals of the organization.
- The candidate must have been mentored in either an apprenticeship role or coaching position by an individual or organization who wholeheartedly subscribes to the benefits of analytics.
- The candidate must have varying levels of experience as a professional ball player and is of an age that can command respect, but can also easily relate to a diverse population within the clubhouse.
- The candidate must demonstrate strong communication skills and is adept at developing strategies that maintain healthy and positive relationships.
- The ability to speak multiple languages and can connect with ball players without the use of an interpreter is highly desirable.
- The candidate must have a courteous and professional rapport with the media at all times.
- Most importantly, the candidate must be a visible extension of the front office’s philosophies and is constantly working in unison with the general manager.
With the recent additions of Mickey Callaway (New York Mets), Alex Cora (Boston Red Sox), and Dave Martinez (Washington Nationals) to the fraternity of major league managers, we are seeing the genesis of three new coaching trees within baseball whose origins are deeply entrenched in analytics . Terry Francona, A.J. Hinch, and Joe Maddon could someday become baseball’s version of the Bill Walsh coaching tree in football. Gone are the days of recycling brand name managers at a premium price. Franchises are actively looking for the sharpest minds and untapped resources at an affordable price .
Compensation packages for the new generation of managers are vastly different for a wide variety of reasons. Gone are the days of the ten year, $50 million contracts like the one Mike Scioscia has with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Maddon’s five year, $25 million contract with the Chicago Cubs might fall under the endangered species category as well. Girardi even had a four year, $16 million contract with the Yankees. The recently hired crop of new managers is less expensive, but is far more in line with the direction of today’s game . For several years, managers had become private enterprises and had occasionally overshadowed their ball clubs with off the field endeavors as spokesmen, authors, and motivational speakers. In truth, franchises are tired of paying $5 million on an annual basis for brand name managers who demonstrate a clear reluctance to the front office’s wishes when it comes to analytics.
By not committing excessive amounts of money to a single manager, the savings can be judiciously redistributed throughout the organization with the goal of developing a world class baseball operations department. A savings of $6 million over three years on a manager’s contract can be invested into attracting intellectual capital, software development, proprietary information, or even additional job opportunities. Simply put, attract the best talent with competitive salaries and benefits. The opportunities must go far beyond the privilege of working for a major league ball club. Just think what a front office could do with fifteen full-time programmers and data architects instead of ten.
There have been managers who have won by craft and guile while others were as inspiring as evangelical preachers. There are managers with bronze plaques in the hallowed halls of Cooperstown because they were brilliant tacticians while others richly benefited from timing. Hall of Fame pitcher Warren Spahn once said, “I’m the only guy who worked for Casey Stengel before and after he was a genius.” We are seeing major league franchises developing a managerial strategy calibrated to analytics and cost containment . The strategy is obviously a work in progress, but there are already positive and negative consequences.
For instance, a new crop of worthy and intriguing candidates are replacing the familiar cycle of household names that are somewhat past their prime in terms of effectiveness and relevance. Diversity in the dugouts is finally starting to take shape as well. Besides the success of Dave Roberts in Los Angeles with the Dodgers and the recent announcements of Cora and Martinez as managers, bench coach openings are providing more opportunities for minorities. Joe Espada has joined the Astros as the replacement to Cora and Hensley Meulens is the new bench coach for the San Francisco Giants. Don Wakamatsu is now the bench coach for the Texas Rangers after spending four seasons with the Kansas City Royals. Other notable minority bench coaches are Charlie Montoyo (Tampa Bay Rays) and DeMarlo Hale (Toronto Blue Jays). With Cora and Martinez perfectly fitting the new mold of analytical candidates to manage major league ball clubs as well as being minorities, the unintended consequence of this progress is the demise of Baker’s managerial career.
The final, yet highly coveted managerial opening belongs to the New York Yankees. Besides the brand name, payroll, and championship pedigree, the Yankees have a ball club that has already proven that success in October can be easily achieved in the post-Jeter era. Their current roster is a manager’s dream mixture of veteran leadership and youngsters with unlimited potential. Whoever becomes the thirty-third manager in club history will be blessed with exceptional talent, but with extraordinary and immediate expectations.
Senior Vice President and General Manager Brian Cashman aggressively rebuilt the Yankees through the farm system and prudent acquisitions of talent through highly successful trades. Therefore, Cashman’s selection of a manager will perfectly fit the blueprint he has laid out for a franchise whose last world championship occurred in 2009. While names such as Rob Thomson and Eric Wedge might not jump out at you, be prepared to see the Yankees move in an unconventional manner for them. Aaron Boone, David Cone, John Flaherty, and Jerry Hairston, Jr. might not appear to be the usual candidates for a managerial position, but they could be exactly what the Yankees need to embark upon a run very similar to what had occurred during their last dynasty of 1996-2001. Don't be surprised to see the recently retired Carlos Beltran's phone to ring as well for an interview or conversation.
General Managers have become the unquestioned rock stars in the business of baseball . However, there is a growing concern that some are becoming larger than their organizations and their compensation packages are grossly inflated in a manner that once plagued managers. Several legitimate questions are being raised regarding the next generation of managers and their relationships with their respective front offices. Will the current crop of recently hired managers become the on-field spokesmen for their franchise’s analytics philosophies or will they be allowed to manage as they see fit? Will baseball games be completely choreographed by spreadsheets or will managers be permitted to use their vast intellect to make sound baseball decisions? Most importantly, are we seeing a new era of enlightened leadership within the game or are managers becoming puppets whose strings are being pulled by the front office?
Baseball was, is, and always will be a people business. Analytics is unequivocally an extraordinary asset, but we can never discount the human element . The delicate balance between the two will be on full display as baseball’s newest managers deftly explore the coexistence between the two.
Wayne G. McDonnell, Jr., B.B.A., M.B.A. is the Academic Chair and Clinical Professor of Sports Management, NYU School of Professional Studies (NYU-SPS) Tisch Institute for Sports Management, Media, and Business. He is a highly sought-after commentator and analyst on the game of baseball. McDonnell regularly appears on various television and radio programs; coaches athletes as a private hitting and pitching instructor; and shares timely insights via the Twitter handle @wmcdonn25.