Making it less and less clear what Saudi Arabia’s ultimate intentions in the Yemen War are at this point, reports out of Riyadh say that the “Saudi-backed” Yemeni government is effectively under house arrest within the Saudi capital, and being actively prevented from returning to southern Yemen.
Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen in 2015, vowing to reinstall President Hadi, who had previously resigned, and whose term in office had long since run out. After Saudi forces captured the southern coast of Yemen, they made a big show of sending Hadi and other officials from his “government-in-exile” to the port city of Aden, making it a “temporary capital” of Yemen.
Hadi’s been falling out of favor, however, particularly with Saudi allies in the United Arab Emirate, who don’t like how many of his political allies are linked with the Muslim Brotherhood. UAE forces have taken over a growing number of places in the south, though to what end isn’t totally clear.
Either way, Hadi came back to Saudi Arabia for meetings in February, and he’s not been allowed to go back to Yemen since. Though the Saudis never officially detained him, in August he went to the airport intent on buying a ticket to fly back to Aden, and was rebuffed. The rest of his family, and all cabinet members within Riyadh, are similarly being kept from flying back to Yemen.
Saudi officials say they aren’t confident Hadi would be safe in southern Yemen, but this has apparently been the case for nearly an entire year now, and it’s increasingly doubtful they intend on ever letting him back into Yemen, raising questions of what Yemen is going to look like in the long term, especially if the Saudis continue to maintain it will be “ruled” by Hadi.
Saudis will for a while keep the same slogans — but it will start making changes. In spite of rethoric Qatar is not being invaded, nor are the initial conditions being remembered by anyone. Egypt blunted the crises, and after meeting in Cairo conditions became principles, and Qatar has reoriented trade to Iran, Russia and doubled the size of Turkish military base. Oman has good relationnship with Iran. Due to its unique Sunni branch it is carefull of Saudi ham-fisted approach to “true Islam”. Kuweit has 40% Shia population. Bahrain 80%, and under Saudi occupation. UAE supporting Saudi Arabia — while taking territory in South Yemen. Faced with a complete fiasco in GCC — Saudi Arabia will be making changes — but it looks like it will engage regionally. Already extended olive branch to Iraq.
Hadi really is no longer acceptable to snyone. As a Sautherner, he is not wanted in the Notth and as Saudi propped leader he is not wanted in the independence minded South. The solution is partitioning along the borders the two countries had before being forcibly united in the nineties. Regional solution would help provide security guarantees.
It does feel like Saudi rulers may be more in debt to their wealthy business families — a vast number of them from Yemeni South, or Hadhramuth. With various princesses in the state of conflict — this may be the time for non-.Saudi wealthy clans to negotiate better rights within the kingdom, easier path to citizenship, and of course, an independence for South Yemen. Much of its economy depends on the wealthy
Saudis investments and support for relations.
But to do that — means giving statehood back to North, and the obsession with them being Shia will have to be overcome. Regionally, Egypt has the political capacity to remain on good terms with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, and could shepherd the North independence. Based on evidence, it looks like UAE wants to get port of Aden, either as a protectorate, or on lease from the South. As for the South itself,, Oman an be of assistance in security guarantees. This is what most parties agree upon — the question is, will Israel and neocons let go — and stop seeing Iran under every rock.