This Sunday millions of Venezuelans, as part of the electoral cycle, will elect 23 new governors. The leading opposition MUD (Mesa de Unidad Democratica) party is ahead in the polls, and has not shied away from criticizing the complete lack of impartiality and independence of the National Electoral Council (the Venezuela electoral body in charge of supervising the elections). If the elections are fair and transparent the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, loyal to president Maduro Chavez’s hand-picked successor, is predicted to lose 20 governorships.
Despite the profound economic crisis crippling Venezuela since 2014 and with more than $150 billion of debt ($8 billion due to November 2017), the regime launched a third satellite from the northern Chinese province of Gansu, and President Maduro just returned from Russia where he was able to strengthen military cooperation between the two countries and restructured its $1 billion debt to Putin’s regime.
Once Venezuela was one of the most stable countries in the region. Then, in 1998 it became a laboratory for “socialism of the 21st century” policies. After almost 20 years of this Chavismo, the results are the same as Communism of the 20th century, those in poverty increased (between 2014 and 2016 the poverty increased from 48.4 % to 82% while extreme poverty rose from the 27% to 52%.), the middle class has almost disappeared and the economy is completely imploded.
The last independent attorney general of Venezuela, Luisa Ortega Diaz, declared “there is no rule of law in Venezuela, there is no democracy, and there are no freedoms.” Diaz was removed from her post by President Maduro after she distanced herself from the regime that had murdered more than 125 protesters, arrested more than 3000 protesters and jailed hundreds of political prisoners in 2017.
The recent release of three journalists; one Italian, one Swiss, and one Venezuelan is the latest example on how president Maduro is repressing freedom of speech and transforming Venezuela into a Castro style dictatorship. The country is more and more polarized between the Boligarchia (Bolivarian nomenklatura) and the seven million people who voted July 16th , in a grassroots led, referendum to oppose Maduro’s plan to adopt a Cuban styled constitution.
Despite the referendum’s results, and international pressure from the Spanish and the Italian Prime Minsters and the international democratic community, president Maduro dissolved the National Assenbly (the Venezuela Parliament) and called for a new constitutional assembly to radicalize the Bolivarian revolution started by president Chavez in 1998. Carlos Ponce, director of Latin America programs at Freedom House, called the move an “illegal grab of legislative powers by the constitutional assembly, a group with no legal standing, is part of President Maduro’s efforts to silence all dissent and shore up a dictatorship." He elaborated, “The constitutional assembly was created through a fraudulent election and has no legitimate authority to act against congress.” According to the Freedom in the World 2017 Index Venezuela is rated Not Free, and according to the Index of Economic Freedom Venezuela ranks 179 out of 180 after Cuba and just before North Korea.
Venezuela, was one of the richest countries in South America, and now is on the brink of the economic and humanitarian collapse. According to a recent IMF report Venezuela’s inflation rate will increase to 2,349.3 % in 2018 from 254.4 % of 2016, and its GDP will contract by 6% while all other countries in the region are predicted to grow by 1.9%. The fall of the oil price from $100 to $45, representing 96% of the state revenues, and complicated and artificial exchange rate highlight all the major contradictions of Chavismo public policies. Venezuela, a country with one of largest oil reserves in the world, is suffering from a hunger crisis; 12% of children experience acute malnutrition. According to Prof. Sary Levy Carciente, a member of the Venezuelan National Academy of Economics Science, GDP fell by 18% in 2016 and during the last four years fell over 35%, which is similar to the 1929 crisis".
The protection of property rights in Venezuela is almost zero, the country ranks 126 out 127 according to the Property Rights Index. Meanwhile the government continues to expropriate local and international firms that produce food, medicine, and other vital products—and force them to close down, produce shortages, or hire political cronies. Today pharmacy shelves are empty, hospitals have crumbled, and electricity is largely unavailable; the mortality rate has increased to 66% without considering that desease, such as malaria, is affecting Venezuela with more than 240,000 cases, an increase of 76% from 2016.
The collapse of the Venezuela economy is more amplified by the fact that hundreds of multinational companies have already left the country due to the political and economic turmoil. Companies such as Clorox, Kimberly-Clark, General Mills, General Motors and Harvest Natural Resources have almost stopped functioning or at least maintained their skeleton operations while companies such as Fiat Chrysler, Colgate Palmolive, Johnson & Johnson and Nestle SA have retrenched their activities. Last but not least, the land of Bolivar is not only more and more economically isolated but it will be soon completely cut off from travel maps, considering that only seven or eight carriers are still operating in the country after the withdrawal of Argentina Airlines, United, Air Canada and Lufthansa “Venezuela is becoming disconnected, it’s practically disconnected from the rest of the world, above all by air, and we can’t see any solution in the short term” said Vice-president Peter Cerda from IATA.
Despite the recent failed tentative of dialogue between the MUD and the Maduro’s regime mediated by the Dominican Government, four months of violent protest led by the opposition, and two months since the new “constitutional assembly” took office, despite not being recognized by international leaders such as Antonio Tajani, president of the European Parliament as well as president Trump and other Latin Americans presidents, this Sunday, October 15, Venezuela one more time will be facing elections in a very unstable political environment where the basic electoral rules are completely undermined and transparent results uncertain.
“This Sunday” remember Rocío Guijarro, president of the Red Liberal de América Latina (Relial) ”we do not vote because we are in democracy, but we vote because we do not want to renounce the democracy. This vote, despite, all the circumstances, is the only tool we have to face the regime, despite the fact Maduro eliminated most of the electoral centers if not relocated. We should have this election last year. We have one only because of the protests and international pressure.”
“The elections on Sunday must have taken place in December 2016 according to the Constitution, but Maduro had no problem blocking them -- through the Supreme Court under his control -- because he is not able to win a free election. Only popular protests and international pressure forced him now to convene regional elections, but these will be held under conditions that do not provide transparency or guarantees, and only because the condition of "competitive authoritarianism” is much more useful that of a “closed autocracy” said Prof. Miguel Ángel Martínez Meucci, Professor of Political Studies at the Austral University of Chile , “Even if the MUD candidates manage to win many governorships, Maduro's regime will leave them without resources and prevent them from governing, as it has already done with many mayors, governors and the National Assembly itself. Unfortunately, there are no short-term prospects for Venezuela's economic and social collapse to find some kind of positive political way out.”
This Sunday more than ever, the international democratic community -- especially the Organization of the American States -- needs to raise a unanimous voice against the Maduro regime in order to reestablishing the constitutional order, freedom of expression and rule of law and finally to apply the often forgotten Inter-American Democratic Charter -- a milestone of the Organization of the Americans States signed in 2001 -- a milestone document to preserve human rights and democracy in the region.
