Timing is everything.
As Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline approached, the surprising Twins went from adding veteran left-hander Jaime Garcia to reportedly fielding offers for Garcia and their other so-called short-term assets.
All it took to cause this pivot was a skid in which the Twins dropped five of six games, including a three-game interleague sweep at Dodger Stadium, while division rivals Cleveland and Kansas City steadfastly refused to lose. Heading into Friday’s opener of a three-game series in Oakland, the Twins had fallen a season-high six games off the pace in the American League Central and four games behind the second wild card spot.
Aside from the fourth-worst run differential in the American League, the Twins’ abrupt change in strategy also owed something to general manager Thad Levine’s first-year experiences with the Texas Rangers in 2006. After experiencing a 10-win decrease the prior season under manager Buck Showalter, the Rangers decided to go for it.
In a six-player deal with the San Diego Padres, they acquired what they hoped would be a front-line starter in Adam Eaton and a lockdown closer in Akinori Otsuka. In return, the Rangers gave up a 23-year-old first baseman named Adrian Gonzalez, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2000 draft but a power-challenged prospect with a .272 on-base percentage in 206 big-league plate appearances.
While Eaton was an injury-marred disappointment and Otsuka nailed down 32 saves for an 80-win team that got Showalter fired, Gonzalez, currently on the Dodgers’ disabled list with a back injury, has pounded out nearly 2,000 hits (and counting) as a five-time all-star and four-time Gold Glove winner.
“Everyone talks about the Adrian Gonzalez trade (such) that Adrian Gonzalez was the extent of our mistake, and it really wasn’t,” Levine said earlier this season. “The extent of our mistake was assuming that we were one player away and acquiring what we deemed to be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher in Adam Eaton was the move we needed to make to win the West.”
Eaton went 7-4 with a 5.12 earned run average in just 13 starts (65 innings) and left as a free agent at season’s end.
“That’s not saying anything about Adam Eaton,” Levine said. “(That mistake was) followed closely by the fact we had devalued Adrian Gonzalez because we had Mark Teixeira and we didn’t have the vision of how two first basemen could play on the same team and serve two high-impact roles.”
Levine and Rangers GM Jon Daniels conducted the sort of painful self-assessment in light of that 2006 season that clearly informs the Twins’ current process under chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and Levine.
“We realized this very soon after making some of those moves (in 2006) that we made some short-sighted decisions,” Levine said. “I think they were born out of a central flaw in our decision-making process, which you see across a lot of sports, which was we miscalculated where we were in the winning continuum. I think we thought we were the proverbial one player away when we really weren’t.”
Against that backdrop, here’s a look at some of the Twins who could be on the move by Monday afternoon:
ERVIN SANTANA, RHP
While the Houston Astros are running away with the AL West, they continue to search for a high-end starter that would give them a better shot come October. According to a person familiar with the Astros’ search, they have already done background work on Santana and have at least some belief he could be the “true difference maker” they seek.
“I’m sure Santana will be looked at closely (by the Astros),” the person said of a 34-year-old making $13.5 million per season.
In addition to his mentoring role for a young rotation, the problem with moving Santana, signed through next season with a club option for 2019, is his unsteady performance since June 1 (5.46 ERA and 15 homers allowed in 10 starts). Santana’s average fastball velocity has dipped by 1 mph over his last two outings, according to BrooksBaseball.net, but an even bigger concern might be a slew of metrics that point to upcoming regression.
JAIME GARCIA, LHP
After the initial version of the deal blew up over the Atlanta Braves’ concerns regarding Nick Burdi’s medical report, a fresh wave of suitors reportedly swept back into the picture. The Twins shouldn’t have much trouble topping rookie-level right-hander Huascar Ynoa, the pitching prospect they substituted for Burdi, should they opt to flip Garcia.
That especially holds if they cover a portion of the $4.3 million that remains on Garcia’s expiring contract.
BRANDON KINTZLER, RHP
Despite converting 44 of 51 save opportunities since moving into the closer role in June 2016, Kintzler and the Twins had yet to hold even exploratory talks regarding a contract extension, according to a person with direct knowledge.
He was hitting 96 mph on the radar gun Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, but the groundball specialist ranks last among 91 big-league relievers (40-inning minimum) with a nine-inning strikeout rate of just 5.28. The first-time all-star ranks fifth-worst in strikeout rate for 170 relievers with at least 30 innings, just ahead of veteran lefty Craig Breslow, whom the Twins just designated for assignment.
Making a shade under $3 million, Kintzler would have remained under club control for another season had the Twins waited just four more days to call him up in early May 2016.
EDUARDO ESCOBAR, INF
Ex-Twin Eduardo Nunez was dealt to the Boston Red Sox in recent days, prompting curiosity over what Escobar could bring in trade. As a fifth-year arbitration candidate next winter, the popular and versatile switch-hitter could see his $2.6 million double.
While Escobar provides insurance at third base for Miguel Sano and at shortstop for the slumping Jorge Polanco, his park-adjusted production against lefties (39 percent above league average) could prompt a contender to overpay.
BRIAN DOZIER, 2B
Set to earn $9 million next season in the fourth and final year of his contract, Dozier is still pounding lefties (48 percent above league average) but his overall production has dropped to 1.5 Wins Above Replacement. With the Detroit Tigers willing to trade Ian Kinsler and few contenders in need of an upgrade at second base, Dozier seems a better bet for another round of winter trade rumors.
MATT BELISLE, RHP
His overall numbers are skewed by a handful of disastrous outings, but since the middle of June, the 37-year-old reliever has a 0.48 ERA and .288 OBP allowed in 18 2/3 innings. Valued for his leadership and pennant-race experience, Belisle is making $2.05 million on a one-year deal.
KYLE GIBSON, RHP
Bounced back to Triple-A Rochester for the second time this season, Gibson retired his final 14 batters Thursday before a rain delay ended his night after five shutout innings of one-hit ball. While 44-year-old Bartolo Colon (another potential free agent) has a 9.75 ERA over his past 11 outings, Gibson’s ERA is 4.83 in the majors over that same span.
Eligible for two more trips through arbitration after making $2.9 million this season, Gibson could be a buy-low option for a team on the fringe of the playoff race. The Twins, if they decide to sell, have plenty of younger arms they’d probably like to audition instead.
