Expect the unexpected at Wimbledon this year

By J.S.

WIMBLEDON, the third installment of tennis’s grand-slam calendar, is known for its pristine grass courts, adherence to tradition and near-deification of past greats. Two of those past champions, Roger Federer and Petra Kvitova, enter this year’s tournament as the favourites in their respective draws. Just six months ago, neither player could have anticipated being in this position: Ms Kvitova was recovering from a career-threatening knife attack, and the Swiss maestro seemed to be embarking on a farewell tour. If Mr Federer and Ms Kvitova fulfill the prophecy of the betting markets and triumph this fortnight, that appearance of tradition will remain intact. But the smart money is still strongly against them, because both the men’s and women’s tennis tours are harder to predict today than they have been in years.

Mr Federer, the 35-year-old seven-time Wimbledon champion, has posted a stunning 24-2 record this season after missing the second half of last year with a knee injury. At the Australian Open, he won his first major since 2012, and last week he claimed the title at the grass-court warm-up in Halle for the ninth time in his career. With a newly aggressive backhand, he has now defeated Rafael Nadal, his long-time rival, three times in a row—a feat he had never accomplished in the pair’s 34 previous meetings.

Yet it remains unclear whether Mr Federer has truly come close to regaining his peak form. At the end of last season, men’s tennis reached its baseline-grinding apex in the rivalry between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, each of whom has won Wimbledon twice in the past four years. After opening the season with a tantalising three-set final in Doha in which Mr Djokovic triumphed, both lost earlyin Melbourne. Neither man has been a factor since, winning only one title each. Mr Federer has not met either one in 2017, facing top-ten players other than Mr Nadal only three times. According to Elo, a rating system that awards points based on the quality of opponents faced, Mr Federer still trails Mr Djokovic, in large part because so many of his 24 wins in 2017 have come against middling competition.

After an encouraging run to the semi-finals at the French Open last month, Mr Murray looked to be returning to the form that earned him the world’s top ranking last fall, and bettors briefly favored him over Mr Federer for the Wimbledon title. But in his single grass-court match this year, at Queen’s Club, he lost to Jordan Thompson, a 23-year-old Australian who has yet to crack the top 60 in the official rankings. Even Mr Murray’s indestructible return game failed to show up that day, ending a nearly two-year streak of 136 straight matches in which he won at least one of his opponent’s service games. Mr Murray is currently struggling with a hip injury, and has since withdrawn from the pre-Wimbledon exhibition event at Hurlingham.

The other three members of the men’s top five have problems of their own. Mr Djokovic’s struggles have dropped him to fourth place in the official ranking table, a position he hasn’t held for nearly eight years. Uncharacteristically, he decided to enter a warm-up event in Eastbourne, which he won on July 1st, albeit against a much lower level of competition than he will face in the second week of Wimbledon. Mr Nadal has yet to play a grass-court match this year, instead electing to rest following his comprehensive run to his tenth French Open title, and has not beaten a top-ten opponent on the surface since 2011. Stan Wawrinka, the Roland Garros runner-up, who has ridden a late-career surge to three major titles, has never been a threat on grass courts. He was won just 27 of 52 career matches on the surface, and never reached a Wimbledon semi-final.

This weakness at the top of the game not only suggests that Mr Federer deserves his position as the presumptive favourite, but also that we are likely to see a surprise name or two in the late rounds. Milos Raonic, who made the finals last year, has a game well-suited to the turf, as does Marin Cilic, the 2014 US Open champion, who narrowly lost last week’s final at Queen’s Club. Another dark horse is the electric-serving Australian, Nick Kyrgios, who has previously reached a Wimbledon quarter-final and has defeated each of Mr Federer, Mr Nadal and Mr Djokovic. Even though the tour’s biggest names have managed to cling onto the top spots in the rankings, their hold on the sport is gradually weakening.

The same transition is taking place on the women’s tour, and at a much faster pace. Like Mr Federer, Ms Kvitova may have as much to worry about with youngsters than she does with her traditional rivals. After 20-year-old Jelena Ostapenko broke through with a shock French Open title last month, three 21-year-olds made moves at the first four grass-court warm-up events. Donna Vekic of Croatia upset Johanna Konta, a home favourite, in Nottingham. Anett Kontaveit of Estonia won in ’s Hertogenbosch. And Ashleigh Barty of Australia, who has already established herself on the doubles tour with four appearances in major finals, came within a set of defeating Ms Kvitova in Birmingham. Even Catherine Bellis—an American who is just 18, and was playing her first-ever professional tournament on grass in Mallorca—got into the act and reached the semi-finals. These young women, together with Ms Ostepenko, who owns a Wimbledon junior title herself, are poised to take advantage of a field that rivals the men’s tour in its unpredictability.

In a season filled with the unexpected—no top seed has yet won a title at the Premier level or above—the success of Ms Kvitova’s comeback has been one of the biggest surprises. Sidelined for five months, she returned ahead of schedule, won a match on her least favorite surface at the French Open, and then claimed the Birmingham trophy. Even though she has yet to face a top-ten opponent this year, her past success on grass courts—she won the Wimbledon title in 2011 and 2014—makes her a formidable opponent.

Compared with the men’s draw, whose four top contenders are neatly arranged at the top of the seeding table, the women’s bracket is downright chaotic. Ms Kvitova, after her long layoff, is seeded 11th, and two other contenders making comebacks, 2013 finalist Sabine Lisicki and two-time semi-finalist Victoria Azarenka, aren’t seeded at all. Venus Williams (pictured), the 37-year-old five-time Wimbledon champion, is seeded tenth despite being the best grass-court player in the draw, according to a surface-specific Elo rating. Meanwhile, the top five seeds hold only two major titles between them.

The top three seeds—Angelique Kerber, Simona Halep, and Karolina Pliskova—have even more at stake during the fortnight than adding to their meager grand-slam tallies. They will begin Wimbledon nearly in a three-way-tie for the top spot in the official rankings, a position Ms Kerber has held for much of the last ten months, and one that neither Ms Halep nor Ms Pliskova has yet to achieve. While Ms Kerber narrowly holds the lead, she will likely need to match or exceed the Wimbledon performances of her two rivals to hold on to her perch. The betting markets don’t think she’ll manage it, making Ms Pliskova a near co-favourite to win the event. Ms Kerber is a distant seventh.

However, the rising tide of young stars, combined with the comebacks of stars such as Ms Kvitova and Ms Azarenka, means that the battle to be the world number one may be settled midway through the second week. And it is likely that the most consequential—not to mention entertaining—matches of the fortnight will occur between players without single-digit numbers next to their names. Even the first round boasts its share of high-profile clashes, including one contest between Ms Azarenka and Ms Bellis, and another pitting Ms Barty against fourth-seeded Elina Svitolina. In the fourth round, Ms Kvitova could face Ms Konta, but only if the Brit manages to turn the tables against Ms Vekic, her likely second-round opponent. Ms Williams’ draw is relatively free of such obstacles. But even she may have to face Ms Lisicki—who has won three of their four career encounters—in the fourth round.

Two weeks from now, members of tennis’s old guard may well assume their usual positions hoisting hardware at the All-England Club. But as the elites of the men’s tour loosen their grip, and the next generation of women force their way into the mix, the pantheon of Wimbledon greats will soon need to make room for some new names.