SportsDay's Mavericks beat writer Eddie Sefko hosts weekly chats to talk Dallas basketball with fans. Here is some of the best from his recent live chats on SportsDayDFW.com.
From May-July 2017
Think we'll ever see the day when the lottery system is no more?
Sefko: "A certain NBA owner believes there could be a different way. But it's hard to see not having the lottery in some form or fashion. It's just too much of a buzz-generator for the league and while tanking will continue to be a problem until a better system is devised. But this may end up being as good as there is. My wild/crazy idea is to reverse the odds of winning it. Give the 14th-worst team the best chance to get the No. 1 pick. Give the worst team the least odds of landing the top pick. Then let everybody fall in line after whoever wins the No. 1 choice, with the worst team picking second, next-worst third, etc. That way the worst team is no worse than second and you would have teams on the fringe of the playoff race playing hard to try to get the best chance in the lottery. Some might play their way into the playoffs. The flip side, of course, is that the teams near the bottom of the playoffs might decide a great chance at the No. 1 pick is better than a first-round sweep to Golden State. That's the flaw with that system. But it would reward teams who play hard to the end and not the teams that have done the worst job and finished with the worst record in the league."
Did you like what Mark Cuban said about eliminating the draft for a free agency model?
Sefko: "Meh. He's never shy on innovative ideas. You're not going to hit on all of them. But if you don't throw out a few clunkers, you're probably not taking enough chances and not failing enough to come across that one home run. It would be fun, though, especially if the worst team had, like $20-million to spend on rookies and the NBA champion had, say, $500,000. Money still speaks loudest in this league, especially with agents having so much power these days."
Anyone currently on the roster you think will stay in Dallas/be helpful long term?
Sefko: "I do believe they want to give Yogi Ferrell a chance to show that he can do what he did for two months last season for years to come. And they have no intentions of dealing Barnes unless it's somebody like Steph Curry coming in return. So they won't be dealing Barnes. This team has half-a-dozen solid young pieces. If they keep stockpiling good players, the hope is that they will be in better position to hit a home run in free agency next summer or maybe sooner. It's a process. Not going to be easy. And at times it's not going to be fun to watch."
Where does the likely big name trio of Noel, Nowitzki and Smith Jr. put the Mavs in terms of their path to a rebuild?
Sefko: "Well, Dirk is not part of the rebuild, other than being the patriarch that will oversee it. Smith Jr., Noel, Barnes -- that's the group that is going to be the foundation, along with Matthews. If that group shows enough promise, they would need one anchor to push the franchise back into relevance in a year or two. And you never know, maybe Smith is that anchor. But let's let that play out and see what the management team can figure out."
Top suitor for Noel other than the Mavs?
Sefko: "Hard to tell, but you'd have to look at teams with enough cap space to get it done. And ones that also are in need of a center and are trying to build a young core. New York, Brooklyn, Phoenix and Sacramento. But again, the word is out there that the Mavericks have every intention of matching whatever offer Noel might get on the open market. For that reason, it's not real likely that there's any competition at all."
Any guesses on whether the Mavericks have to pay max to keep Noel? Is there another team that would want him enough to steal?
Sefko: "The way things are going, max money is a possibility. But I tend to believe that, in the end, they'll still shave a few bucks off that total. If they can start him around $20-million, maybe $21-million, it would make a big difference going forward. But if max is what it takes, it would start at about $24.5-million."
Think Cuban made the wise decision playing it safe this free agency? How would you grade his and Donnie's decisions in the draft and free agency overall the past few weeks?
Sefko: "If you read my story in today's DMN, you know that Noel basically was their free-agent acquisition. He just happened to come in a trade in February. But they didn't exactly give up the farm to get him. So keeping him is essential."
Outside the off chance of Dion Waiters, who else could Dallas go after with approx. $8 million?
Sefko: "Unless you want to overpay for somebody who is unproven, the pickings will be pretty slim. You probably aren't going to get Simmons away from the Spurs. And you have to remember that $8.4-million ain't what it used to be. Remember that there are 30 players in this league making $21-million PER SEASON or more. That's what the best players -- and even some that are just decent -- are getting in this TV-bloated financial era. Think Patrick Patterson, maybe."
Johnathan Motley needs to do ___ this summer to make the roster. ???
Sefko: "He might have to beat out A.J. Hammons. At the very least, he has to prove his knee is healthy and that he can handle the NBA style. The early word is that if he stays focused and doesn't stray from what he does best, then he's a very effective player. Keeping on the straight and narrow could be his first hurdle to overcome. I'd also say he's got a decent chance to sign one of the two-way contracts that would place him in Frisco with the Legends, but allow him to spend 45 days over the course of the season with the Mavericks."
Needing a bargain, where would you like to see Mavs spend on final roster spot?
Sefko: "What I would like to see is the next coming of Seth Curry, somebody young and talented who has yet to reach his potential. But those aren't easy to come by. I would keep an eye on the summer-league play and it's always a good idea to keep a salary slot available in case a player you love turns up on the waiver wire later in the summer or during the season. If you could pry away somebody like Jonathon Simmons from the Spurs, that would be awesome. But again, that's not the easiest thing in the world to do."
What are Dennis Smith Jr.'s top few assets to the Mavs in terms of how he'll fit in with his new teammates?
Sefko: "He's got the ability to be a strong pick-and-roll player and he'll push the limits of the opponent's defense. But the question will be how fast he picks up the NBA game and Carlisle's system. Going to be fun to watch the kid grow. His future is bright, but it won't happen overnight."
How much do we see Yogi Ferrell at the two next season?
Sefko: "Depends on how fast Dennis Smith Jr. develops. He's going to get the reins to the horse at some point, but when? Until then, Ferrell -- who is competitive in his own right -- will be vying for as much playing time as possible. And you have to figure the Mavericks are going to give him some rope because they want to find out where he fits in their future."