The great irony about the Trump 2019 budget that was released today is that it took a former host of a television reality show to put together what may well be the most unreal presidential budget in American history.
Consider the following.
1. The Trump 2019 budget is based on an economic forecast that is wildly optimistic compared with virtually every other mainstream economic outlook. This lowers the projected deficit significantly. This tweet from Jason Furman, President Obama's former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, tells you all you need to know.
The Administration's economic forecast is even more wildly optimistic than last year. The assumption of 3.1% annualized growth over the next three years. For comparison, the FOMC's median of 2.2% and the Survey of Professional Forecasters 2.4%. (START THREAD)
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) February 12, 2018
2. As had to be the case when the budget deal was enacted last Friday, that is, well after work on the Trump budget was completed, the president's budget did not include the impact of the approximately $600 billion of additional spending or the cost of the new tax breaks on the projected overall levels of the deficit and national debt. Even though the White House could have delayed the release of its new budget so that the deal could be fully incorporated, OMB Director Mick Mulvaney chose to barrel ahead and send Congress a budget that was inaccurate even before it was submitted.
3. The president signed the budget deal last Friday. In a letter to key members of Congress that accompanied the Trump budget, the administration said the president opposed much of the domestic spending he had agreed to in the deal he had enacted three days earlier.
4. As he did last year, Trump proposed a large number of domestic program eliminations in his 2019 budget that even the Republican-controlled House and Senate aren't very likely (and I'm being kind) to consider. Ever.
Including these cuts allows the Trump budget to show a smaller deficit even though the government's red ink will really be billions higher.
5. Even the much-talked-about Trump infrastructure plan was unreal. The White House called it a $1.5 trillion infrastructure program but only proposed $200 billion of federal dollars in the budget for it. The additional $1.3 trillion is supposed to come from states and others. That really means that it's only a $200-billion-over-10-years Trump infrastructure program. The $1.5 trillion price tag is pure fantasy.
What's the actual difference between the Trump reality television show and his 2019 budget? The show was seen in reruns. The budget probably won't be seen ever again by the end of this week.
