Let’s start with a few facts. Currently, the transport sector accounts for around a quarter of the world’s energy use and 20 percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It’s a figure that, for some, already makes an alarming reading. Yet fast forward 35 years from now and even the most pragmatic of onlookers may start to feel their pulse rate quicken. By then, most experts predict the number of vehicles on the road will have doubled to more than 2 billion (currently there are about 1.2bn vehicles on the road today). It’s easy to see what this could mean for global energy resources, pollution levels and ultimately, the planet.
This isn’t to decry the importance of mobility; Far from it. As we have seen throughout history, and most recently in countries like China, India and Mexico, improvements in road infrastructure invariably have a positive impact on economic growth and social development. Prosperity and quality of life often go hand in hand with people being able to move around more freely. The challenge is: how do we go about producing enough energy to meet the mobility demands of a rapidly growing, urbanizing global population in a sustainable and commercially viable way?
More traditional OEMs are investing heavily in alternative vehicle technologies to keep pace with... [+]
This was the question at the heart of a Shell Commercial Fleet panel discussion I moderated alongside a selection of senior transport industry players at Shell Make the Future Live, a four-day festival of ideas and innovation in London. In keeping with the event’s collaborative, forward-looking focus, the panel considered the future of mobility, especially when it comes to producing more, cleaner energy for commercial vehicle fleets, an industry that moves 14 billion tons of goods every year.
It’s a hot topic. After all, as Shell Hydrogen fuel expert Michael Copson pointed out, in a world moving towards greener, more efficient transport solutions in general, it is imperative that we improve the sustainability performance of fleets as quickly and effectively as possible.
Fortunately, progress is happening. For example, Chinese imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached record levels in December 2016, with an additional 30 percent increase expected this year as the government steps up its efforts to reduce the country’s smog. Meanwhile, with Tesla set to unveil its first all-electric trucks this September, there can be no denying that electrification, whether via plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles, will have a major part to play in building a sustainable, cost-efficient fleet industry of tomorrow.
More traditional OEMs are also getting in on the act, investing heavily in alternative vehicle technologies to keep pace with the twin challenges of rising energy demands and more stringent environmental regulation. Earlier this year, Mercedes-Benz trucks confirmed that the first two models of its all electric heavy-duty Urban eTruck will soon be deployed across Europe, offering a range of about 200 kilometers (120 miles) per battery charge, as well as a highly creditable load capacity of up to 26 tons. The likes of Volvo, Daimler and BMW, also have their own ambitious plans in the area, as have many of the big energy players, especially when it comes to the development of renewable fuel sources, such as advanced biofuels, nuclear power and hydrogen.
Increasingly though, the question of what you drive is going hand in hand with how you drive. As Scott McGregor, Shell Retail B2B Sales Manager, told us, many organizations are placing a greater emphasis than ever on driver behavior and fuel efficiency.
One good example is so-called truck platooning, where two or three trucks drive autonomously in convoy connected via wireless, with the leading vehicle determining route and speed. This can successfully reduce congestion, cut fuel use, make long distance driving less stressful, prevent human error from causing accidents and most importantly change the role of the driver to fleet manager. Perhaps of most interest to fleet managers is the fact it has also been shown to slash operating costs, with two platooning trucks clocking 100,000 miles a year saving as much as €6,000 on fuel annually, compared to the same vehicles driving on cruise control.
However, if fuels and vehicles are central to the future of the fleet industry, what about fleet managers themselves? As new technologies, tightening legislation and changing consumer demands shape the industry, their position is becoming increasingly complex and strategic. Put another way, today’s fleet managers must be far more than simply vehicle monitors, instead assuming the vital role of Mobility Manager whose job is to capitalize on the latest industry trends and developments to help their organizations stay competitive, meet emissions targets, make better business decisions and provide a service as efficient as possible.
How they do so increasingly comes down to data, a powerful tool in the modern fleet manager’s arsenal. In fact, according to another fellow panel member at Shell Make the Future Live, Eliron Ekstein, the burgeoning role of analytics may in fact be the most important development of all. As Chief Commercial Officer of FarePilot, an innovative app that helps taxi drivers identify high demand areas, you might expect him to say that but, nevertheless, the argument for technology and data disruption is compelling.
It is widely accepted that the future will bring a transportation landscape in which private car, freight, bus, rail, pedestrian and bicycle traffic are woven into a single connected network that, in turn, saves time and resources. This means the number of vehicles with built-in connectivity will increase from 10 percent in 2013 to around 90 percent by 2020. These connected cars, vans and trucks, will become extensions of our home or office, making driving more convenient and far easier to optimize. This could mean anything from real-time congestion tracking and route adjustment to vehicles that ‘talk to’ traffic lights to improve traffic flow in cities.
It follows then that tomorrow’s fleet managers will have the chance to wield greater, smarter influence over ensuring the people, goods and vehicles in their custody, arrive at their destinations more quickly, safely and cheaply, with fewer miles on the clock and fewer CO2 emissions created. Meanwhile, additional telematic and data analysis tools are further supporting this efficiency drive, enabling everything from live driver behavior monitoring and better fraud protection, to enhanced route planning as well as more accurate predictions of a vehicle’s repair and maintenance program.
Indeed, if there was one key thing to come out of the panel discussion it was the notion that the transport sector finds itself in the midst of a perfect storm of innovation, technology and data on the one hand, and unprecedented energy demand and environmental challenges on the other. These factors are already playing a defining role in shaping the future of mobility and will continue to do so for generations to come. Fleet managers with the foresight and courage to step into the eye of the storm and embrace the opportunities available may find their business emerging at the vanguard of a greener, better-connected, more cost-efficient road transport industry.
