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©TechTarget 1
Beyond Predictive:
What you can’t see can hurt
Kerry Cunningham
Senior Research Director
SiriusDecisions
John Steinert
Chief Marketing Officer
TechTarget
Kerry Cunningham
Senior Research Director
@KerrySirius
Beyond Predictive: What you
can’t see can hurt
Understanding the types and value of
exogenous data
3 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Categories of Prospect Data
Lo-Res
Descriptive Data
Hi-Res
Descriptive
Data
Predictive
Episodic
Data
Behavioral
Data
• Email
• Address
• Phone
• Industry
• Revenue
• Skills
• Certifications
• Groups
• Tech install
base
• 3rd party web activity
• Search
• Social
• Syndicated content
consumption
ExamplesDescription
• Propensity
to..
Basic
contact and
account info
Attributes that
allow more
precision in
identifying
personas and
accounts
Information
related to news
and events;
mostly accounts
but some contact
Activity data,
synthesized to
suggest
awareness and
interest; useful
only at account
level
All available
data,
synthesized to
better predict
next best
action
• Look-alike
clusters
• Mergers
• Earnings
• Promotions
• Lease
expirations
4 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Lo-Res
Descriptive Data
Hi-Res
Descriptive
Data
Predictive
Episodic
Data
Behavioral
Data
Categories of Prospect Data
• Email
• Address
• Phone
• Industry
• Revenue
• Skills
• Certifications
• Groups
• Tech install
base
ExamplesDescription
• Propensity
to..
Basic
contact and
account info
Attributes that
allow more
precision in
identifying
personas and
accounts
Information
related to news
and events;
mostly accounts
but some contact
Activity data,
synthesized to
suggest
awareness and
interest; useful
only at account
level
All available
data,
synthesized to
better predict
next best
action
• Look-alike
clusters
• Mergers
• Earnings
• Promotions
• Lease
expirations
Fit State Intent
• 3rd party web activity
• Search
• Social
• Syndicated content
consumption
5 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Prospects may be a good fit but not in the market now
Why Behavioral Data Matters
Just bought/ under contract
Experiencing inhibitory
business conditions
Relationship issues
6 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Active Market
Answering Questions About Prospects
Target Market
Fit State
Intent
7 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Taking Action Against the Addressable Market
Target Market
Digital Inbound and Outbound Tactics
Teleprospecting
outbound to high-
propensity accounts
Sales outbound to
high-propensity
accounts
Active Market
Target Market
8 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Advanced warning of ”shopping” behaviors
Varieties of Behavioral Data
So, behavior is
important. But is all
behavior important?
9 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Advanced warning of ”shopping” behaviors
Varieties of Behavioral Data
With Digital doodling, curiosity
indulging and other irrelevant signals
subtracted
√
X
SiriusPerspective:
10 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Why Exogenous Behavioral Data: The Buyer’s Journey
It is a mistake to assume that buyers will always move through their journey in a logical
order and in ways that you can easily see.
Loosening
of the
Status Quo
Committing
to Change
Exploring
Possible
Solutions
Committing to
a Solution
Justifying
the
Decision
Making the
Selection
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
SolutionEducation Vendor Selection
These are the stages through which buyers pass…But not always in the proper order or within our view
11 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
What Types of Intent (Behavioral) Data Are There?
… from within
…from without
12 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
What Types of Intent (Behavioral) Data Are There?
Endogenous morphine (Endorphins)
• Chemicals our bodies make in response to
stresses
• Runner’s high
Exogenous morphine
• Chemical that mimics what our body makes
naturally
• Unnatural quantities of exogenous morphine
famously addictive quality
SiriusPerspective:
13 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
First Party 3rd Party
Marketing
automation data
that registers and
scores prospect
behavior
Syndicated
content, web
searches, and
other digital body
language that
indicates interest in
a subject or
solution
Two Types of Behavioral Data
There are two types of prospect behavioral data, and both types are important sources
of information about the purchase intentions of prospects.
Endogenous Exogenous
SiriusPerspective:
14 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Why Exogenous Behavioral Data: The Buyer’s Journey
Buyers engage in a wide variety of buying-related activities during their journey, but
most of those activities are not visible within your systems.
You can see
Visits
competitor
Websites
Downloads
competitive
syndicated
content
Follows
competitor
on Twitter
Colleague also
reads
syndicated
content
Direct report
active in related
LinkedIn group
Attends
analyst event
on related
topic
You can’t see
SolutionEducation Vendor Selection
SiriusPerspective:
15 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Why Exogenous Behavioral Data: The Buyer’s Journey
Buyers engage in a wide variety of buying-related activities during their journey, but
most of those activities are not visible within your systems.
Can’tseeCanSee
?
Visits
competitor
Websites
Downloads
competitive
syndicated
content
Follows
competitor
on Twitter
Colleague also
reads
syndicated
content
Direct report
active in related
LinkedIn group
Attends
analyst event
on related
topic
Downloads
white paper
Registers for how-
to webcast
SolutionEducation Vendor Selection
False Positives and False Negatives
Why exogenous behavioral data is so important
17 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Is That Lead a Lone Actor or Part of a Conspiracy to Buy?
Conspiracy Lone actor
18 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
The False Positives Problem
What you think?
Reality
Correct
Yes
False
Positive
False
Negative
Correct
No
True False
True
False
Our job, avoid both the
False Positives and
False Negatives
SiriusPerspective:
© 2014 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved 19
The False Positives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral
data, False Positives and False Negatives.
Seymour
False Positive
SiriusPerspective:
© 2014 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved 20
The False Positives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral
data, False Positives and False Negatives.
Seymour
•Too much is never enough
•Seymour will consume
every asset you create,
and attend every webinar
SiriusPerspective:
© 2014 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved 21
The False Positives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral
data, False Positives and False Negatives.
Seymour
MAP score through the roof
SiriusPerspective:
© 2014 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved 22
The False Positives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral
data, False Positives and False Negatives.
Seymour
Consumes but will
never buy
MAP score through the roof
SiriusPerspective:
© 2014 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved 23
The False Positives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral
data, False Positives and False Negatives.
Seymour
Kills conversion
rates
Consumes but will
never buy
MAP score through the roof
SiriusPerspective:
© 2014 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved 24
The False Positives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral
data, False Positives and False Negatives.
Seymour
And your reputation
with sales
Kills conversion
rates
Consumes but will
never buy
MAP score through the roof
SiriusPerspective:
© 2014 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved 25
The False Positives Problem
False positives result when prospects who will never buy consume your content,
raising false expectations, crushing your conversion rates and confidence.
Seymour
Solution: To minimize false
positives, you need to know
more about your prospects’
and the behavior of their
buying groups/ teams.
SiriusPerspective:
26 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
The False Negatives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral data, False
Positives and False Negatives.
• Inbound has led to false sense of security
• Over-reliance has led to False Negatives
SiriusPerspective:
27 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
The False Negatives Problem
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral data, False
Positives and False Negatives.
• Inbound has led to false sense of security
• Over-reliance has led to False Negatives
SiriusPerspective:
28 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
There are two primary errors addressed by 3rd party behavioral data, False
Positives and False Negatives.
The False Negatives Problem
198 players picked ahead of him in
2000 draft, including 6 QBs
- 5× Super Bowl champion
- 4× Super Bowl MVP
- 2× AP NFL MVP
- 12× Pro Bowl
- 2× First-team All-Pro
- More wins than the quarterbacks
picked before him combined
False Negative – Tom Brady
29 © 2017 SiriusDecisions. All Rights Reserved@SiriusDecisions
Lo-Res
Descriptive Data
Hi-Res
Descriptive
Data
Predictive
Episodic
Data
Behavioral
Data
Categories of Prospect Data
• Email
• Address
• Phone
• Industry
• Revenue
• Skills
• Certifications
• Groups
• Tech install
base
ExamplesDescription
• Propensity
to..
Basic
contact and
account info
Attributes that
allow more
precision in
identifying
personas and
accounts
Information
related to
news and
events; mostly
accounts but
some contact
Activity data,
synthesized to
suggest
awareness and
interest; useful
only at account
level
All available
data,
synthesized to
better predict
next best
action
• Look-alike
clusters
• Mergers
• Earnings
• Promotions
• Lease
expirations
Fit State Intent
• 3rd party web activity
• Search
• Social
• Syndicated content
consumption
• We need fit data to know whom to target.
• Current state data tells us who, within our
target market, is likely to be in the position to
buy.
• Behavioral data tells us who is shopping.
• Exogenous behavioral tells us who is
actually in market
©TechTarget 30
Beyond Predictive:
What you can’t see
can hurt
John Steinert
Chief Marketing Officer
@TechTargetCMO
Leveraging real purchase intent
insight for more demand and better
orchestration
©TechTarget 31
• The challenges of our marketing world
• 1 mind-blowing way to improve “false
negatives”
• 3 requirements for successful ROMI
improvement – issues with “triangulation”
• How we make better external – exogenous –
data
• What you get when you combine both
Agenda
©TechTarget 32
©TechTarget 33
Ptolemy and Galileo (homage to Andrew Davis, CMI)
©TechTarget 34
Inbound v. Reality: False negatives writ large
OUR
Co.
G
©TechTarget 35
Inbound v. Reality: Getting to more real positives
G
©TechTarget 36
Understanding false positives and negatives on the web
Google
search
rank
Granular IT
25
20
15
10
5
1
General Business/ConsumerGeneral Tech
©TechTarget 37
Understanding false positives and negatives on the web
1
2
Google
search
rank
General TechGranular IT
25
20
15
10
5
General Business/Consumer
©TechTarget 38
Google
search
rank
General
businesssites
Guys scouring
the web
Granular IT
25
20
15
10
5
1
1
2
General Business/ConsumerGeneral Tech
©TechTarget 39
Google
search
rank
Vendor
sites
Vendor
sites
Granular IT
25
20
15
10
5
1
1
1
General Business/ConsumerGeneral Tech
©TechTarget 40
Google
search
rank
TechTarget
sites
Vendor
sites
Vendor
sites
B2B
tech sites
General
businesssites
Guys scouring
the web
General Business/ConsumerGranular IT
25
20
15
10
5
1
1
2
3
General Tech
©TechTarget 41
Solution varieties out there
Intent Insights
(Data Inputs)
Predictive Platforms
(Data “Organization”)
Marketing/Sales Overlays
(Applied Data)
[Programmatic/DMP]
1 2 3
©TechTarget 42
Triangulation takes time and money
WHO?
WHAT?
WHEN?
1
2
3
©TechTarget 43
Solution varieties out there
Intent Insights
(Data Inputs)
Predictive Platforms
(Data “Organization”)
Marketing/Sales Overlays
(Applied Data)
[Programmatic/DMP]
• Accounts only
• Hypothesis methodology
• Shallow info
• Based on your historical
signals
• Account-basedview;
lackingnew named
prospects & activity
• Org structures & contacts but no
senseproject interest/involvement.
• Limitedpermissions
• TOFU (programmatic)
WHO? WHAT?
WHEN?
WHO?
WHAT? WHEN?
WHO? WHAT? WHEN?
1 2 3
©TechTarget 44
©TechTarget 45
Real Buyers. Real Intent. Real Results.
Top 200,
Ranked by
activity
Same ranking, but
showing
engagement with
you
Top topic of
interest to
prospects
Top vendor
of interest to
prospects
1
2
43
©TechTarget 46
Not everyone, not everything, not all the time
1
©TechTarget 47
Who, What and When: Active prospects, precise detail
Who/When
What 1 32
©TechTarget 48
How better extrinsic data is made and made available
Your audience: Deep content
footprint and Search dominance:
140 B2B Tech Web sites; 550K+
indexed content pages, 800K first-
page organic Google rankings
Strong signals: Buyer research
detailstracked on individual buyer
level, yieldingvisibility intopurchase
intent in specific market segments
Easy access: PriorityEngine
is the central warehouse for all
this account and prospect
activity intelligence
75K content
items produced
annually
200M inbound
visits from
organic Search
1M daily buyer
interactions across
10K topics
100K accts
per month;
18M registered
members
©TechTarget 49
✔ Capture more demand
more efficiently
✔ Improve conversionrates
across the funnel
✔ Accelerate deal velocity
with better alignment &
content
✔ Deliver a more tangible
outputs and inputs to
Sales
Intrinsic and extrinsic combine to drive substantive change
See & understand your market
todayand every week
ImproveROMI and productivity,
continuously and transparently
Direct access to thousands of real
buyers in your technology market
= More real positives, less false
negatives
Activatemarketing/sales strategy
clearlyand tune as you go
Promote better content, more effectively
nurtureprospects, focus yourABM plays,
increase sales productivity, recruit betterfor
specific events etc.
More efficient and effective brand
consideration, lead conversion,
opportunity discovery and
pipeline impact
200M+ inbound
organic search
signals
1M+ daily
on-network buyer
interactions
You get your market: You orchestrate better: You reach goals:
1 2 3
©TechTarget 50
Marketing and Sales Outcomes
Password Mgmt.
Vendor/Business
Intelligence Vendor
Security Vendor Networking Vendor Leading Hardware
Vendor
Outcomes: 300%
increase in
closed/won deals
Engagement: 10-
20% click-through
rates
Engagement: 50%
conversion rates to
direct sales
revenue
Outcomes: $2M in
open opportunities
and 22x ROI
1 21 2
1
2
Much better engagement and conversion from improved targeting and content
Much better sales outcomes from better understanding and better timing
©TechTarget 51
Questions?
Kerry Cunningham
Senior Research Director DCS
SiriusDecisions
@KerrySirius
John Steinert
Chief Marketing Officer
TechTarget
@TechTargetCMO

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