Plenty of Brexit land data due Wednesday, at 0930 GMT

November Industrial Production , for the headlines:

  • expected +0.4% m/m, prior flat at 0% change m/m
  • For the y/y, expected +1.8%, prior +3.6%

Preview via RBC:

  • The November IP data and construction will be important inputs into the Q4 GDP calculations, the first estimate of which is due later this month.
  • The industrial sector got the quarter off to a slow start with output static in October. Perhaps most surprising was that output in manufacturing rose only 0.1% m/m despite the recent buoyancy of activity suggested by the manufacturing PMIs. However, the PMIs strengthened further in November and even a small positive m/m increase in output would leave the sector on course to register an expansion in Q3. For the construction, last month's contraction of -1.7% means that, absent an unlikely looking strong rebound, the sector is likely to drag on growth this quarter.

Preview via Nomura:

  • Surveys (CBI and PMI) point to continued growth in manufacturing production in the official November report. While we forecast a further rise in manufacturing output, we should highlight the risk of a fall (the series can be volatile) after a string of six monthly increases between May and October.

Also due at 0930 GMT, trade balance data for November. preview via Nomura again:

  • The national accounts detail published in December revealed that real exports of goods and services have performed far better over the past two years since sterling began depreciating than had been originally reported. Rather than being at the bottom of the G7 pack the UK is now, following the revisions, at the top. As for the monthly trade balance we forecast a similar deficit in November to October (a little wider £10.5bn).