Inland Empire economist touts growth in logistics, health care

The Inland Empire added more than 237,000 jobs from 2011 to 2016, meaning the region now has about 97,000 more jobs than it did prior to the recession that began in 2008, according to a report released by the Southern California Association of Government earlier this month.

"For the Inland Empire, a review of the most recent economic data and the overall trend since the turnaround began in 2011 continues to provide very good news," wrote John Husing, a Redlands-based economist who studies the Inland Empire and prepared the report for SCAG. "Looking to 2017, there is every reason to anticipate growth levels similar to those of 2016 given the forces impacting the key sectors that make up the inland region's economic base (logistics, construction, health care and manufacturing)."

In 2017, Husing predicts that logistics will have about 175,000 jobs in the Inland Empire; construction will have about 95,910; health care 136,000; and manufacturing 101,000.

Professional, management and scientific work may reach 54,000 jobs in 2017, buoyed by increasing levels of education in the Inland Empire and a growing population.

MORE BUSINESS: Three business owners, three years: How entrepreneurs survive

Nearly a quarter of the jobs added in the last five years came in logistics — there are about 55,000 more positions in that sector today than there were in 2011, according to state data. Trucking, warehousing and packaging have steadily added more than 10,000 positions a year since the downturn.

Husing has long been bullish on logistics as a driver of the regional economy. He credited logistics' consistent growth with increasing traffic through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the bevy of fulfillment centers that have sprung up along the Inland Empire's freeways and predicts the region will add another 11,000 jobs in logistics in 2017. 

However, Husing's report suggested that the California Air Resources Board and South Coast Air Quality Management District, which write regulations meant to limit air pollution, could keep companies from relocating to the Inland Empire or hiring as many people as they could.

Suzanne Paulson, director of the UCLA's Center for Clean Air, told The Desert Sun in April that air pollution levels have dropped about 75 percent from their peak in the 1970s, largely thanks to regulations that cut tailpipe emissions — including requiring cleaner, California-specific formulations of gasoline — and forced power plants to limit emissions. 

READ MORE: Smog or jobs? Mass warehouse means mass pollution

Husing also highlighted health care as a growing sector, citing the region's growing and aging population as well as the Affordable Care Act. The percentage of adults without health insurance dropped by half, from 27.1 percent to 13.6 percent, between 2013 and 2015. 

"This represents a substantial increase in demand for health care services," Husing wrote in the report. "The sector's employment has not adjusted as rapidly in part because local out-patient and in-patient care facilities are still working through the process of how to gear up for the increase in demand."

The construction sector continues to struggle, however — the region's construction businesses cut more than 68,000 jobs after the housing market crashed a decade ago and have only gained back about 31,000. And the manufacturing sector's performance has been "sub-par," the report said, with employment still about 15 percent below pre-recession levels.

Rosalie Murphy covers real estate and business at The Desert Sun. Reach her at rosalie.murphy@desertsun.com or on Twitter @rozmurph.