New Mexico State Aggies vs. Clemson Tigers Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

The fifth-seeded Clemson Tigers (23-9) are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2011 as they prepare to meet the 12th-seeded New Mexico State Aggies (28-5) as solid favorites for Friday's round-of-64 matchup in the Midwest Regional.

The 20th-ranked Tigers lost to the fifth-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers as a No. 12 seed in the East that year while the Aggies are making their sixth NCAA tournament appearance in seven seasons as the WAC champions.

March Madness point spread: The Tigers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total is at 133, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 69.8-60.3, Aggies (March Madness picks on every game.)

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Why New Mexico State can cover the spread

New Mexico State just keeps on dancing regardless of who is its head coach. In their last three NCAA tournament appearances, the Aggies have had three different coaches, with Chris Jans leading the current team. The former Wichita State assistant has picked up where Paul Weir and Marvin Menzies before him left off.

New Mexico State has now won the WAC tournament six times in the last seven years, and the school is coming off back-to-back conference titles thanks to a 72-58 victory against the Grand Canyon Antelopes as a 4.5-point favorite in the championship game last Saturday.

Why Clemson can cover the spread

Clemson has not been the same team since losing second-leading scorer Donte Grantham (14.2 points per game) to a season-ending knee injury, going 7-6 in its last 13 games without him. However, the Tigers still managed to upset the defending national champion North Carolina Tar Heels 82-78 as 1.5-point home underdogs on January 30 during a four-game winning streak that helped earn them an invitation to the Big Dance.

Clemson also went 11-7 in ACC play overall to finish tied for third in the conference and played the top-ranked Virginia Cavaliers tough in a 64-58 loss in the ACC tournament semifinals. The Tigers were eight-point underdogs and have covered three of four.

Smart betting pick

The Aggies may be riding a six-game winning streak, but their level of competition is questionable at best heading into the NCAA tournament. They are a disappointing 1-5 straight up in their last six games as underdogs of five points or less, according to the OddsShark College Basketball Database, and that is a troubling trend in this matchup.

Meanwhile, Clemson is 4-1 against the spread in its last five as a favorite, so look for the Tigers to take care of business and advance with a win and cover.

March Madness betting trends

Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.

The total has gone over in eight of Clemson's last 11 games as a favorite.

The total has gone under in seven of New Mexico State's last nine games as an underdog.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.