Rising political tensions risk collapsing the peace deal that ended the country's last civil war, while escalating clashes in the north risk drawing in involvement from Sudan's warring parties.

The charismatic Istanbul mayor's detention will likely trigger protests and further undermine his party's ability to challenge Erdogan and the AKP in the 2028 presidential election.

Domestic political constraints will impede Madrid's ability to expand its defense budget, which will expose it to U.S. retaliation and limit Spanish participation in any European deployment to Ukraine.

South Africa will struggle to meet Trump's demands for major foreign and domestic policy changes, which will risk exposing the country to disruptive U.S. economic retaliation, including entity-based sanctions.