Margin of victory in House races
+35 pct. pts.
Kansas 4th
+25
24-point shift
in Tuesday’s
special election
+15
+5
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRATIC
+5
All House districts
‘94
‘96
‘98
‘00
‘02
‘04
‘06
‘08
‘10
‘12
‘14
‘17
+35 pct. pts.
Kansas 4th
+25
24-point shift
in Tuesday’s
special election
+15
+5
REPUBLICAN
DEMOCRATIC
+5
All House districts
‘94
‘96
‘98
‘00
‘02
‘04
‘06
‘08
‘10
‘12
‘14
‘17
Looking to 2018
Mr. Estes is the state treasurer and tied to the deeply unpopular Gov. Sam Brownback, but Republicans are worried that the Democratic shift in the seat could reflect a larger backlash against President Trump that will cost them seats in next year’s midterm elections. Tuesday’s move to the left was similar to those of a large number of seats in the 2006 Democratic wave.
Midterm election shifts in each district
24-point shift toward Democrats in Tuesday’s special election
Seats that changed
party are outlined
MORE
DEMOCRATIC
MORE
REPUBLICAN
2006
2010
2014
+20
+40
+60
+80
+80
+60
+40
+20
PCT. PT.
CHANGE
24-point shift toward Democrats in Tuesday’s special election
MORE
DEMOCRATIC
MORE
REPUBLICAN
Seats that changed
party are outlined
2006
2010
2014
+40
+80
+80
+40
PCT. PT.
CHANGE
24-point shift toward Democrats in Tuesday’s special election
MORE
DEMOCRATIC
MORE
REPUBLICAN
Seats that changed
party are outlined
2006
2010
2014
+20
+40
+60
+80
+80
+60
+40
+20
PCT. PT.
CHANGE
Though a number of seats also shifted significantly to the left in the 2014 midterms, when Republicans gained over all, most of those districts were already Democratic.