The U.S. military’s next moves in unstable Syria and North Korea are being closely watched by lawmakers and strategists, with the potential to draw America into quagmires and setting the tone for intervention under a Trump administration.
U.S. Rep. William Keating, who sits on the House Homeland Security Committee, called the deployment of 400 U.S. Marines in northern Syria “something to watch very closely in terms of escalation,” and said a congressional use-of-force authorization may be necessary if forces take on more than a support role in the war-torn ISIS stronghold.
“That’s something that deserves great scrutiny, I think, by Congress,” Keating said. “I think it’s a point on that continuum right now.”
Syrian President Bashar Assad has called the growing U.S. contingent “invaders” for deploying without his government’s invitation, as his troops and their Russian, Iranian and Chinese allies work to clear ISIS out of the terrorists group’s de facto Syrian capital Raqqa.
George Friedman, chairman of the foreign policy analysis firm Geopolitical Futures, sees the U.S. ramp-up as a test to determine if ISIS — after intense fighting in Mosul — stands its ground or disperses into guerrilla groups when pressured.
“The expectation this time is that the battle of Mosul has drained them and they’re going to have trouble holding,” Friedman said. “I think this is a small probe to see whether or not we can find tactics on the ground to actually destroy ISIS permanently. I don’t think this is any final battle. This is preliminary to see what the reaction is going to be like.”
Friedman added that Defense Secretary James Mattis has a reputation of being “incredibly cautious” on inserting U.S. forces into combat.
Meanwhile, tensions are high after North Korea tested four ballistic missiles into Japanese waters last week. That, coupled with political instability in South Korea and Chinese wariness over U.S.-backed missile defense systems in the region, “has the most potential for danger” in the current landscape, Keating said. “North Korea is a wild card. Clearly China is very threatened or concerned by anything that the U.S. does in that region, yet they fail to act themselves.”
Friedman said China wants to play peacemaker with North Korea and soften anti-China rhetoric coming from Washington.
Bradley Schreiber, president of Homeland Security Solutions and a former senior adviser for the Department of Homeland Security, said much remains to be seen about U.S. engagements abroad under Trump and Mattis.
“The president has already said on multiple occasions, and rightfully so, that they’re not going to lay out their tactics or strategy,” Schreiber said. “I think they have a plan, the military’s had a plan for a while. … They’re going to execute on that plan to achieve our national security goals.”
