The fates of 26 members of a Qatari royal hunting party held hostage for more than a year in Iraq were used to help negotiate a population swap in Syria, where residents on Friday started leaving two Shia villages and two Sunni towns in a synchronised easing of a four-year siege brokered by regional powers.
Residents of the Shia areas of Fua and Kefraya, in northern Syria, were transported to nearby east Aleppo as the first buses began leaving Zabadani and Madaya, Sunni strongholds between Damascus and the Lebanese border, for a final destination somewhere in the rebel-held areas of Idlib province.
The deal was finalised in recent days after nearly two years of negotiations between one of Syria’s main opposition groups, Ahrar al-Sham, and Iran. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Qatar have also been central – both taking a stake five months ago when members of Doha’s ruling family were offered up as a component of the swap.
The agreement, and the regional choreography surrounding it, marks one of the most sensitive episodes of the Syrian war. Iran and Hezbollah have been determined not to cast the moves as a demographic swap, while Ahrar al-Sham and members of the Syrian political opposition insist that what has been proposed cannot be characterised otherwise.
As the Guardian reported in January, Iran had earlier tied the future of both Sunni towns to the fate of Fua and Kefraya. While the plan at its essence involves relocating four local populations, the intimate involvement of regional powers underscores how deeply embedded the conflict has become in a broader proxy war for power and influence.
The involvement of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has meanwhile been negligible, with Iran and Qatar seeking the release of 1,500 prisoners from Syrian jails, but not including regime officials in discussions.
Two Qataris, both members of a falcon hunting party that had crossed from Saudi Arabia to Iraq where they were captured in December 2015, were released earlier in the week as the deal neared implementation. Sources close to the negotiations have told the Guardian that urgent efforts to secure the fate of the remaining men led to the plan being finalised.
Discussions between all four parties have taken place in Doha since the start of the year. The group holding the Qatari royals is understood to be Kata’eb Hezbollah, one of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ main proxies in Iraq, whose former leader, Akram al-Ka’abi, has led Iranian-backed militias in Syria.
Fua and Kefraya, where up to 40,000 residents have been besieged by Islamist groups and jihadists, have been focal points of al-Ka’abi’s operations in Syria. Hezbollah has been heavily deployed in the villages and had envisaged that residents would be directly swapped for those leaving Madaya and Zabadani.
The latest version of the plan is to move the families into east Aleppo, which was recaptured from the Syrian opposition in December. The area between the Syrian capital and the Lebanese border has become increasingly vital for Iran and Hezbollah, which have stepped up efforts to shape the aftermath of post-war Syria according to their interests. The Lebanese border towns of Baalbek and Hermel are where Hezbollah was founded 35 years ago and have been focal points of the group’s training and command efforts ever since.
Syrian opposition officials say they now suspect that Fua and Kefraya residents will now slowly be moved into the two Sunni towns. “It will be attritional,” said one official close to negotiations. “They will join Hezbollah leaders and their families who have already relocated from Lebanon.”
Two Kefraya families who spoke to the Guardian on Friday said they had been told that they would stay in Aleppo temporarily before being moved elsewhere, possibly near the Sayeda Zainab shrine in west Damascus, or to Zabadani, or Madaya.
Yousef, one of the recent evacuees from Fua’a who is now housed near the Sayyeda Zainab shrine – a focal point of Shia-led efforts to bolster Assad – said he was anxious for his family to join him. “We don’t know where we will end up living, but it is a relief that we got out of the siege,” he said. “We don’t want to take the homes of the residents of Zabadani and Madaya, as we don’t want them to take ours, but it is not for us to decide.”
In Zabadani, one local man, who called himself Ammar, said 3,200 civilians had left both towns on Friday. “It seems that the people of Idlib are opposing the deal and they don’t want those leaving Fua’a and Kefraya to be allowed to leave because they consider them as a guarantee of their own safety. They think that once those residents are gone, there will be retaliation against them similar to Khan Sheikhoun [the site of a sarin attack on 4 April]. Any demographic swap will take time and will be done gradually.”
Syrian officials have described evacuations of local populations earlier in the war, including one such arrangement in Homs earlier this month, as locally agreed reconciliation deals. The moves have involved rebels surrendering their weapons and agreeing to exile, typically in Idlib province, where jihadi groups play a prominent role among the remnants of the Syrian opposition. The agreements have all followed prolonged sieges, which have led to severe hunger and reports of malnutrition.
Additional reporting by Suzan Haidamous