Ballotpedia and SRG: Women & Trump 150 Index
The Women & Trump 150 Index and related values-indices were created by the Sorock Research Group. The Women & Trump 150 Index provided a snapshot-look into a weekly panel survey of high-intensity female supporters of President Donald Trump. The catalyst for the weekly panel and correlating Trump Indices stemmed from the research reviewed in The Science of Female Trump Support, a qualitative research study conducted by SRG shortly after Trump's election in November 2016.
In that study, women who expressed strong support of Trump as a candidate for U.S. President shared their views on what drove their connection to him. From the research, five dimensions emerged that explained the connection of high-intensity female supporters to Trump. The five dimensions identified in the research were: “Pride of Country,” “Relatability,” “Safety,” “Hope,” and “Empowerment.” The five dimensions measured in the W&T150 indices were initially identified in "Motivating Values and Constancy of High-Intensity Female Supporters of Donald Trump," a qualitative study that utilized the Laddering methodology to interview individual female Trump supporters.
Every week during the first 100 days of the administration, the latest results were published on this page.
SRG's take on this week's numbers
April 29, 2017- Trump's 100th day
Below is the analysis provided to Ballotpedia by SRG for the final week of results.
Female Trump supporters blame Congress, remain focused on domestic agenda
At the close of President Trump’s first 100 days in office, and on the heels of an ongoing budget showdown with Congress, female Trump supporters surveyed in SRG's W&T150 Indices rated Congress at 2.40, down from last week's rating of 2.87. Satisfaction with President Trump edged slightly higher to 6.76.
Other dimensions of female high-intensity support of the President tested this week saw minor but unsubstantial shifts, with "Pride in Country" dropping 0.08% to 6.83, "Hope" rising 0.06% to 6.88, and negligible changes for "Relatability," "Safety" and "Empowerment."
Congress's 16% drop in satisfaction reflects the second-lowest point for Congress with this audience over the entire 100 days. As one respondent noted, “Congress is not supporting what [the] majority of Americans want so it's hard to get our goals accomplished.”
The female Trump supporters responded overwhelmingly positively as to Trump's prioritization of tax-reform this week, with secondary mentions of his continued support for building the southern border wall and his overall work ethic. On the other hand, when asked what most displeased them, they specifically cited his “caving” and “backtracking" on the wall (see our special report on Trump supporters’ reaction to the southern border wall standoff here), as well as several references to his son-in-law Jared Kushner's persisting influence.
The survey's respondents did not elicit any positive nor negative comments with regards to the growing tensions with North Korea, suggesting that the domestic agenda continues to be prioritized by this audience over international actions.
One takeaway of the W&T150 Indices over the past three months is how steady Trump's support has continued to be over these 100 days. Over the course of his entire presidency thus far, the range of overall satisfaction levels among high-intensity female supporter was a mere 2.18 percentage points deviation from his all-time high recorded in his first week of office. Congress's YTD range, on the other hand, was a whopping 29.20 percentage points.
We will explore what explains their continued satisfaction with President Trump in our 100-day wrap-up report.
Special report: Trump's decision on the wall
April 27, 2017
Below is the analysis provided to Ballotpedia by SRG on a special poll regarding the administration's stance on the border wall.
Sorock Research Group polled our panel of high-intensity Trump supporters over the past 36 hours to identify the most recent opinion on the showdown over funding a proposed southern border wall.
We found that citizen opinion among this group of more than 300 respondents has not only remained extremely positive about President Trump building the wall but also that a significant upside could be realized by the president if he were to go up against Congress and push building the wall in spite of a threatened government shutdown. According to these respondents, only Congress would suffer consequences if Trump were to stand firm on building the wall.
The sample of 331 high-intensity Trump supporters revealed that 83.1% would feel more negatively about Congress if they shut down the federal government rather than fund the wall. If President Trump persisted despite this threat, 42.9% would not change their opinion either positively or negatively about the president, and 56.2% would feel even more positively about him. In other words, there is significant upside to President Trump pursuing the funding of the wall in the face of threats of a shutdown.
Even so, 84.6% further indicated that even if illegal immigration was reduced through other means, they would still support building a southern border wall.
When given a choice, moreover, building the wall was the number one preferred action for President Trump’s first year in office, more important than suspending the Syrian Refugee program, changes to NAFTA, or even lowering taxes, among other options.
Comments from respondents about the impending showdown with Congress included:
“Congress more likely will try and block him no matter what he tries to do. I won't blame President Trump I will blame them.”
“I am tired of co congress they are a bunch of idiots can't accomplish anything the GOP needs to get it together or they will be sitting home next election.”
“We need to build the wall. A country without borders is not a viable country. I am tired of all the posturing and political games. Build the frickin wall and let's get on with fixing the mess the prior admin left us.”
About the Index
According to Anne Segal, the founder of the Sorock Research Group, "SRG's findings tend to contradict conventional hypotheses about support among women for Trump. One explanation for this divergence may lie in the fact that the conventional hypotheses were based on limited information at the time - extrapolated only from exit polling data taken on the day of the U.S. presidential election. The five dimensions of female Trump support, rather, were identified using qualitative in-depth interviews and targeted survey data."
"The original research released by SRG, by looking at the motivations of his high-intensity female supporters, tries to get at the core of why the Trump brand ended up resonating with a number of women. As the Trump presidency unfolds, we can use these insights to assess how Trump's words and actions might be received by a significant portion of the electorate, and to better predict the makeup of our future political landscape," Jack Sorock of SRG explained.
Sarah Rosier, Ballotpedia's Federal Desk Editor, said that Ballotpedia's interest in the SRG number stems from curiosity about how high-intensity Trump supporters reacted to the daily and weekly events of the Trump administration. "At Ballotpedia, we keep close tabs on overall presidential approval. With the SRG numbers, we're also able to dig more precisely into how some of his highest-intensity voters view him, week-by-week. If their support stays consistently high, this is likely to be a good omen for Republicans in 2018 and 2020. Conversely, if their intensity of support slips, this is an early warning sign for the Trump administration and Republicans," Rosier said.
Overall satisfaction (1 - very unsatisfied, 7 - very satisfied)
The Trump Indices
The Trump Indices were a real-time glimpse into how the connection with, and support of, President Trump changed among high-intensity female Trump supporters as his presidency progressed. On a scale from 1 to 7 (1 being the lowest and 7 the highest), panelists provided weekly assessments across the following five dimensions:
Pride: how well is President Trump doing at instilling pride in your country?
Relatability: how relatable is President Trump?
Safety: how safe do you feel with President Trump as president?
Hope: how hopeful do you feel with President Trump as president?
Empowerment: how empowered do you feel with President Trump as president?
In addition, panelists assess their overall satisfaction with President Trump and the U.S. Congress.
Pride of country
How well is President Trump doing at instilling pride in your country?
Relatability
How relatable is President Trump?
Safety
How safe do you feel with President Trump as president?
Hope
How hopeful do you feel with President Trump as president?
Empowerment
How empowered do you feel with President Trump as president?
Satisfaction with Congress
Methodology
The panel of 964 female high-intensity supporters was surveyed each week through weblink responses to a survey. The participants for the base panel were initially recruited through social media fan pages of President Trump and screened for overall level of support for President Trump (7), gender (female), and age (18+). Each week's panel data provided weighted averages from a minimum of 150 panelists.
What is a high-intensity female Trump supporter?
“High-intensity” was measured with the questions, “Who did you vote for in the 2016 presidential election?” and “On a scale of 1-7, how would you describe your current level of support for Donald Trump as president? (1 – very against, 4 – neither against nor supportive, 7 – very supportive). Participants who identified as female, indicated that they had voted for Trump in the general election and were a “7” in terms of intensity of support, were considered to be “high-intensity.”
Ballotpedia and Sorock Research Group
Ballotpedia partnered exclusively with Sorock Research Group to present the Women & Trump 150 Index. SRG provided this research to the Ballotpedia community of readers, equipping them with insights to help explain an important and often misunderstood aspect of the 2016 presidential election: high-intensity female support of President Trump.
About Sorock Research Group
Sorock Research Group identifies the new dimensions of American opinion, utilizing cutting-edge market research methodologies to change behavior and minds. Anne Segal focuses on identifying the issues of the future with expertise in both qualitative and quantitative market research and strategy. Jack Sorock translates insights into implementation, specializing in strategy and campaign design.
See also
Coverage areas: Elections • Federal Politics • State Politics • Local Politics • Public Policy • Influencers • Fact-checking
