ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 40.5
PickCenter: 64 percent on Denver
Phil Steele
I made a handful of points why Denver should win last week's game against the New York Jets, but concluded that I just couldn't play the Broncos until their eight-game ATS losing streak was snapped. Well, Denver snapped that streak last week with a 23-0 shutout win. Denver is a nine-loss team, but it is actually plus-32 yards per game with a top-five defense. Quarterback Trevor Siemian is 4-6 as a starter this year and hit 19-of-30 for 200 yards versus the Jets. However, the Broncos are 0-6 on the road this year, losing by an average of 31-14.
Indianapolis lost in a blizzard last week, but returns to its comfy dome. The Colts are minus-85 yards per game on the season, but they could have easily beaten both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans, which would have made them 5-8. The numbers say Denver, and home field says Indianapolis. I will call for the Colts to win by three points, as I am surprised they are the 'dog.