Why airlines overbook flights and what YOU can do to avoid getting BUMPED

OVERBOOKED flights can be one of the most frustrating aspects of air travel for passengers - so why do airlines oversell?

Maths behind why airlines sell too many tickets explained

There's nothing more disappointing than arriving at the airport to find there is no space left for you on your intended flight.

Shockingly, even if a passenger has booked their ticket months in advance, no one is safe from overbooking.

But airlines the world over engage in the system of overselling flights regardless.

The reason for this is down to maths. And more specifically, profit versus loss.

Airlines are businesses and businesses are interested in maximising profits. Cue the No Show Rate.

This is the term given to the percentage of passengers the airline expects to not show up for their flight.

The prediction tool is calculated using previous data, making the number of tickets sold greater than the amount of seats available.

Frank Brehany, Consumer Director of HolidayTravelWatch, said overbooking is a common feature in travel.

He added: “It is deployed by companies to try and ensure that they are carrying at maximum capacity and apparently takes account of last minute cancellations, no-shows or changes to travel plans. It is said that very few passengers are affected by such a mechanism but when they are, it can have a devastating effect on their travel or business plans."

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Airlines overbook all flights based on a formula called the No Show Rate

Meanwhile load factor, the number of filled seats on a flight, has been increasing each year, so the likelihood of overbooking is increasing.

According to Hubble academic director Nina Klietsch, some 50,000 people get bumped from flights every year.

But the loss to the airline for compensating passengers who are bumped is far outweighed by the profits it gains by engaging in the oversell.

While the process of choosing which passengers to bump remains random, there are steps you can take as a passenger to avoid this.

Mr Brehany said: "It is often the case that when it comes to ‘bumping’ passengers off a flight, it is not really done on the basis of who booked first; it may be decided by the later arrival at check-in, so perhaps one way to try and avoid being denied boarding is to check in as early as possible."

You’re less likely to get bumped if you are a frequent flyer with the airline or if you’re flying at an off-peak period.

The loss to the airline for compensating passengers is far outweighed by the profits from engaging in the oversell

According to the Denied Boarding Regulations, the airline must ask passengers to volunteer not to fly 'in exchange for benefits'.

If there aren’t enough volunteers, the airline will begin denying travellers the right to board.

If you are asked by the airline to voluntarily refrain from boarding the flight, it’s much more cost effective to not choose this option.

The airline will then be forced to make passengers involuntarily deny boarding, which gives you access to far more in compensation than if you volunteered.

Mr Brehany expained: "The greatest protection passengers have against being denied access to their flight comes from EC Regulation 261/2004. This important piece of European Consumer Protection requires airlines to seek volunteers before they make a unilateral decision to deny someone from boarding their flight. Consumers enjoy substantial rights to a refund and an agreed compensatory package."

This compensation is equivalent to if your flight was cancelled except that in this case you are entitled to the refund immediately.

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Airlines overbook flights because they make more profit than they lose from compensating passengers

According to Hubble academic director Nina Klietsch, some 50,000 people get bumped from flights every year.

But the loss to the airline for compensating passengers who are bumped is far outweighed by the profits it gains by engaging in the oversell.

While the process of choosing which passengers to bump remains random, there are steps you can take as a passenger to avoid this.

You’re less likely to get bumped if you are a frequent flyer with the airline or if you’re flying at an off-peak period.

According to the Denied Boarding Regulations, the airline must ask passengers to volunteer not to fly 'in exchange for benefits'.

If there aren’t enough volunteers, the airline will begin denying travellers the right to board.

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Passengers can volunteer to be bumped or be denied boarding involuntarily

The CAA advises you will be entitled to the following under EU law:

  • For short-haul flights that cover less than 1,500km:

If the delay is less than two hours, you can claim €125 (£108)

If the delay is more than two hours, you can claim €250 (£216)

  • For medium-haul flights that cover 1,500km – 3,500km, or flights within the EU of more than 1,500km:

If the delay is less than three hours, you can claim €200 (£173)

If the delay is more than three hours, you can claim €400 (£346)

  • For long-haul flights that cover more than 3,500km:

If the delay is less than four hours, you can claim €300 (£260)

If the delay is more than four hours, you can claim €600 (£519)

If you’re involuntarily denied boarding you are entitled to this cash compensation in addition to a full refund of your reservation.

Each airline has a different price for compensation, and if you do decide to volunteer to be bumped it is up to their discretion to agree on remuneration, which usually includes a night’s stay in a hotel plus a flight refund or alternative flight.

Either way it’s important to research what you’re entitled to and not to accept vouchers or credits if it’s cash compensation you are after.

Just as in instances that your flight is delayed or canceled, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) advises travellers to go directly to the airline if they want to make a claim.

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