SpaceX makes a triumphant return to flight—but hard work is just beginning

On Saturday, SpaceX triumphantly returned to flight after an accident last September. The company launched 10 Iridium satellites into an orbit 625km above the Earth's surface, and, as a bonus, SpaceX also demonstrated its increasing mastery of rocket landings by bringing the first stage booster back to a drone ship off the California coast. SpaceX has now successfully landed seven rockets back on Earth.

This flight was essential for SpaceX because the Falcon 9 rocket is at the core of every aspect of SpaceX's business. Mission success means that the company can now move forward with its lofty ambitions for the year 2017, which include a long list of tasks to ensure a bright future for the rocket company in Hawthorne, California. Here's a look at the company's to-do list:

Increase cadence

SpaceX makes money when it launches rockets and loses money when it doesn't. A recent report on the company's finances showed a $250 million loss in operating income in 2015 after a rocket carrying cargo to the International Space Station exploded. SpaceX almost certainly lost money in 2016 when another rocket exploded on the launch pad. It needs to fly more in 2017, and it needs to fly safely.

Internal documents reveal that SpaceX hopes to fly as many as 27 missions this year, and founder Elon Musk has set a target of approximately 50 launches a year by the end of this decade. For 2017, a more realistic "high end" goal is probably about 20 flights. That would, nevertheless, represent a significant step up for the company, which has only successfully flown the Falcon 9 rocket 27 times since its maiden flight in 2010. To meet a target of 20 flight this year, SpaceX would need to fly about every 2.5 weeks in 2017.

The company's next launch will likely occur from Florida's Kennedy Space Center and would carry the EchoStar 23 satellite payload from Launch Complex 39A. The no-earlier-than date for this launch is presently January 26. If the company flies the EchoStar mission by early February, then 20 launches this year doesn't seem unreasonable.

Reuse

With seven first-stage booster landings at sea and on land, SpaceX has now shown that it can bring rockets home. The big question remains whether it has the capacity to refurbish those rockets on a timely and cost-effective basis before flying them again.

The next step toward this goal is re-flying a used booster. During an interview this week with CBS News, the company's chief operating officer, Gwynne Shotwell, said SpaceX plans to do that for the first time in "a month or so" with the launch of the SES-10 communications satellite.

As for full reusability, in which a rocket lands, is refurbished, and flies again shortly thereafter, Shotwell said SpaceX remains "a couple of years away from that." However, the company is clearly planning to collect a lot of first stage boosters. SpaceX is nearing permission to expand from 1 to 3 landing pads in Florida to accommodate the return of three boosters from the Falcon Heavy rocket—at once.

Heavy lift

Since the retirement of the space shuttle in 2011, the United Launch Alliance's Delta IV Heavy has reigned as the most powerful rocket in the world, with a capacity of sending about 29 tons to low Earth orbit. SpaceX is seeking to enter the heavy-lift launch market with its Falcon Heavy rocket, which has an estimated capacity of about 54 tons.

Consisting of three Falcon 9 cores, the Falcon Heavy would essentially double the lift capability of any rocket in existence today. Its cost—nominally $90 million but likely a multiple of that—is a significant selling point. A proven Falcon Heavy rocket, for example, might force Congress to ask why NASA is developing the Space Launch System, with a 70-ton capacity and an operational cost of $2 billion or more per flight.

Although the Falcon Heavy has been delayed for several years, it may finally reach space in 2017. We've heard reports of rocket tests at its McGregor facility in Texas and the completion of Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center, where the Falcon Heavy will take flight. Various company sources have pegged target launch dates of late spring and early summer for the maiden Falcon Heavy launch.

If—and this remains a big if—the Falcon Heavy flies this year, it would send an emphatic statement that not only has SpaceX moved beyond its Falcon 9 accidents, but that it has stepped into the future with a heavy-lift launch rocket. That would be territory where only superpower governments have trod before.

Commercial crew

During the last five years, as it has continued to fine-tune its Falcon 9 rocket and built up its commercial launch business, SpaceX has derived the majority of its revenue from NASA. The agency has paid SpaceX to deliver cargo to the International Space Station and develop a crew version of the Dragon spacecraft to transport humans there.

NASA has contracted with both SpaceX and Boeing as part of its commercial crew program. Before beginning operational missions to the station, each company is required by NASA to fly an uncrewed "demonstration" mission and a 14-day crewed test flight. The latest "no-earlier-than" dates for the crewed test flights are May 2018 for SpaceX and August 2018 for Boeing. Such launches would allow one or both companies to begin operational flights before the end of 2018, which NASA is counting on.

As part of SpaceX's timeline to meet this schedule, the company has said it will fly the uncrewed demonstration mission in November 2017. Thus, for its biggest and most important customer, SpaceX must continue to make enough progress with its crewed Dragon spacecraft to put it into space this year.

Mars and Satellite internet

Much has been made of SpaceX's plans to develop global satellite Internet and then use the profits of that endeavor as a basis to fund an ambitious plan to begin colonizing Mars within 10 or 15 years. The reality is that none of this can happen unless the Falcon 9 rocket has a successful 2017.

A reliable Falcon 9 makes SpaceX profitable, and a reusable Falcon 9 dramatically cuts the cost of spaceflight. The Falcon 9 also enables the Falcon Heavy rocket, and it will be used to power the crew Dragon into orbit. In the near term, the company must demonstrate these capabilities after two accidents with the Falcon 9 rocket in two years.

Once this happens, then the company's grand plans can begin to fall into place. A reusable, low-cost Falcon 9 rocket is essential to putting all those global internet satellites into space. And only then, after conquering the Earth orbit launch market, might we finally begin to consider the plausibility of plans to colonize Mars with bigger rockets and much larger spacecraft.

Listing image by SpaceX