Through 10 weeks of the 2017 NFL season the three most imortant indicators for the league are bad.
Television ratings compared with last season are down 5% from last season. And this past weekend, when there was a concerted effort by some war veterans not to watch pro football during Veterans Day weekend because of players protesting during the National Anthem, was a total bust.
Sports Media Watch reports that week 10 ratings declined across the board in the metered markets: Cowboys-Falcons in 86% of markets, had a 14.6 overnight rating on FOX--down 18% from last year (mostly Cowboys-Steelers: 17.8); Patriots-Broncos scored an 11.5 overnight on NBC’s Sunday Night Football--down 20% from Patriots-Seahawks last year (14.3); CBS drew an 8.1 overnight for its singleheader window, down 2% from last year (8.3).
Attendance is also down from last year. Yes, the Chargers, now in Los Angeles instead of San Diego, are playing in a much smaller stadium. But even adjusting for the 27,000 seat StubHub Center (I assumed the Chargers would have had the same home attendance as they did in 2016), league-wide attendance is down almost 2% year over year.
Worse, the league is losing its core fans, according to a survey by the Winston Group in October. Upshot: "Prior to the recent NFL National Anthem controversy, the NFL had a favorability with 57% of those surveyed. Post controversy, only 44% had a favorable image of the NFL."
More critically for the NFL, according to the Winston Group, "the fall off in favorables occurred among important audiences. Among males, NFL favorables fell 23 percentage points, going from 68% to 45%. In looking at a more specific audience, males 34-54, NFL favorables fell 31 percentage points, going from 73% to 42%. Among this group the NFL has a surprising negative image, as it went from +54% (73% favorable-19% unfavorable) in August to -5% (42% favorable-47% unfavorable) in September."
My opinion? The number of people that are all-in for the NFL has fallen more than the aforementioned numbers. Viewership is being propped up by fantasy sports enthusiasts, which suggests to me attendance will be even lower next season.
