Despite mistrial, corruption case took a toll on Menendez poll
Most members of the jury in Sen. Bob Menendez’s corruption trial thought he was not guilty, but Menendez hasn’t been vindicated in the eyes of the New Jersey public.
A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Thursday found 51 percent of New Jersey voters think the Democratic senator does not deserve to be reelected next year, while half that number — 26 percent — think he deserves reelection.
Menendez’s two-and-a-half monthslong corruption trial ended in a hung jury earlier this month. According to one of the jurors, 10 of them were in favor of acquitting Menendez on most of the 12 counts against him.
The poll also found that Menendez’s approval ratings are upside down, with 29 percent of residents giving him good marks and 36 percent disapproving. Just 20 percent have a favorable impression of him, while 30 percent have an unfavorable one.
But the numbers are not damning for Menendez, who already has the support of the state’s top Democratic leaders for reelection — even with the possibility of another trial hanging over him.
Many New Jersey residents still have no opinion on the senator’s job performance, and a plurality of Democrats — 42 percent — approve of his job performance.
“Menendez will still be a formidable candidate for reelection for a number of reasons,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers. “New Jersey remains a very blue state, and since the mistrial, Menendez has already received Governor-elect Phil Murphy’s blessing, as well as support from others in his party – including rumored primary challengers. He may still have some bumps in the road ahead, but as of now, he is well funded, has ample constituent experience, and there is no well-known Republican opponent in sight.”
But the poll did find something troubling for Menendez. Half of respondents were asked whether Menendez deserved reelection before they were asked about his trial, and half were asked after. Those who first heard about his trial were far less likely to say he deserved reelection.
“Making Menendez’s corruption charges and current trouble salient clearly takes a toll on his reelection prospects with New Jerseyans,” said Koning. “Menendez can still face a new trial and will face an ethics investigation in the Senate, so this issue for him will not go away anytime soon and has the potential to become a key part of any opponent’s campaign, to Menendez’s detriment.”
New Jersey’s other senator, Democrat Cory Booker, has a much better public image. Forty-nine percent approve of his job performance, while 20 percent disapprove.
The poll of 1,203 New Jersey residents was conducted from Nov. 15-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
The full poll and crosstabs can be read here.