The murder conviction of Aaron Hernandez, the video that revealed Ray Rice’s violence towards his fiancée, and the 10 game suspension of Greg Hardy for alleged violent off-field conduct have focused attention on violent crime among NFL football players. Just days away from the NFL draft of college football players, issues of alleged criminal behavior circle around Jameis Winston, who is likely to be the first player selected in the draft. Are these incidents isolated to a few players, or does the NFL have a more pervasive violent crime problem?
Arrests for violence, drugs and DUI are fairly common even for elite NFL players who have the most to lose from an arrest and possible suspension from the league without pay. Unfortunately, young men are often arrested for violent acts and NFL players are no exception. First round NFL draft selections are actually 37% less likely to be arrested for assault/domestic violence than men of similar age in the general population. Nonetheless, more first round draft selections will be arrested while playing for the NFL than will ever be named first team All-Pro.[1] The risk that a top draft selection gets in trouble with the law is a genuine concern for NFL teams.
About 1.1% of NFL first round draft selections are arrested for assault (including domestic violence) per season, based on data since the 2000 draft. It is therefore to be expected that one of the 32 first round selections in this week’s NFL draft will be arrested for assault or domestic violence every three years. The arrest rate for DUI and drug offenses is approximately twice as high as the rate for assaults, so two DUI or drug possession arrests are expected every three years for the new crop of first round selections.
The NFL spends millions of dollars evaluating college football prospects in its “combine”, “pro days”, private workouts, and interviews. In recent years first round draft selections typically sign four year contracts with an average value of about $9 million with guaranteed salaries of about $4.5 million. The NFL is in a unique situation because few other companies pay multi-million dollar annual salaries to men as prone to violent behavior as NFL players.
The rate at which top draft selections are arrested and the risk that an arrested player will be suspended suggests that an NFL draft prospect’s character should now be scrutinized as carefully as his physical talent. The strict new NFL conduct policy can result in significant suspensions of a half-season or more for an arrest or other off-field conduct, even in the absence of a conviction. More severe penalties and suspensions for conduct should cause teams to put even more emphasis on evaluating a player’s propensity for getting into trouble before drafting the player and signing him to a multi-million dollar contract. However, criminologists have shown that it can be difficult to predict which men will commit crimes, how serious the crimes will be and when the criminal behavior will occur. So while NFL teams have more incentive than most employers to screen their “job applicants” for possible future criminal behavior, it may prove difficult for teams to screen out risky draft prospects.
We calculate arrests rates using an arrest database compiled by journalists at the USA Today and San Diego Union Tribune. Our arrest rate for assault/domestic violence is more than twice as high as the rate we obtain using the methodology from an ESPN/FiveThirtyEight report last summer. The ESPN/FiveThirtyEight methodology uses the same arrest database, but attempts to calculate an arrest rate for all men who attend NFL preseason training camps (about 80 men per team per year). However, many of these men do not appear on an NFL roster and are not employed by the league. The rates computed by ESPN/FiveThirtyEight contain a negative bias because the arrest of a “wannabe” NFL player may not be reported in the news, and the alleged perpetrator may not be identified as an NFL player even if the arrest is reported.
Our results are insensitive to which draft cohorts are included in our analysis because, unfortunately, the arrest rate for top NFL players for assault/domestic violence has been fairly stable since journalists began tracking arrests in 2000. 413 players were selected in the first round of the NFL draft between 2000 and 2012. These top selections played just under 2900 seasons between 2000 and 2014 and 25 of the players were arrested a total of 31 times for assault/domestic violence while in the NFL. It is worth noting that some of the most publicized criminal cases involving NFL players are not included in these totals because: (i) the players were not first round selections (e.g. Jovan Belcher and Aaron Hernandez), (ii) the arrest occurred prior to the beginning of the arrest database (e.g. Rae Carruth), or (iii) the players were arrested after their NFL careers ended (e.g. Lawrence Phillips and Darren Sharper).[2]
NFL teams are unlikely to find comfort in the fact that first round selections are arrested for either assault/domestic violence or DUI/drug possession at about 63% of the rate for men of the same age in the general population.[3] When 18% of the NFL’s most highly paid and highly visible players are arrested, the league faces a substantial public relations problem even though many arrests result in an acquittal or a dismissal of charges.[4] The NFL’s tough new player conduct policy should help because players who are arrested for a violent act will typically be ineligible to compete for an extended period. Personal evaluations and prior criminal convictions of draft participants may soon be as important to NFL general managers as 40 yard dash times.
I am grateful to Brent Joplin, at an Associate Economist at Welch Consulting, for his help with this post.
[1] “First team All-Pro” means that a player has been selected to the Associated Press First All Pro Team indicating the player is the best in the NFL at his position for the season. Of the 287 players selected in the first round between 2004 and 2012, 44 were arrested and 36 were ever a first team All-Pro selection.
[2] Aaron Hernandez, a fourth round draft selection in 2010, was arrested for murder in 2013 and convicted of murder earlier this year. Jovan Belcher, an undrafted free agent in 2009, murdered his girlfriend and committed suicide in 2012. Rae Carruth, a first round draft selection in 1997, was convicted of conspiracy to commit the murder of the woman who was carrying his unborn child (the murder occurred in 1999). Lawrence Phillips, a first round draft selection in 1996, was convicted of felony assault with a deadly weapon and seven other counts of assault in 2005 after his NFL career ended. Darren Sharper, a second round selection in 1997, pled guilty to nine counts of rape and sexual assault in 2015 after his NFL career ended.
[3] For all other crimes we find that the arrest rate for first round NFL players is about one seventh of the arrest for men of the same age in the general population.
[4] 18% of first round draft selections between 2000 and 2012 were arrested while still active in the NFL.
