Poll shows Schuette, Whitmer deadlocked in potential matchup for Michigan governor

LANSING — If Michigan's election for governor was held today, the party's presumed front-runners — Democrat Gretchen Whitmer and Republican Bill Schuette — would be deadlocked in a head-to-head matchup, according to a new poll.

But Schuette would defeat another potential Democratic candidate — Southfield trial attorney Geoffrey Fieger — by 10 percentage points, says the poll from EPIC-MRA of Lansing.

The poll also found that even the leading likely candidates in the two major parties face significant problems with name recognition, with the election to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Rick Snyder about 14 months away.

About a quarter of active and likely voters don't recognize Schuette's name, about half don't recognize the name of Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, and 57% don't recognize Whitmer's name, the poll found.

Fieger — a colorful and bombastic attorney who advertises widely on TV and was the Democratic candidate for governor in 1998 —  easily won the name recognition sweepstakes. Only 9% of those polled did not recognize his name.

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The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted by live operators between Aug. 27 and Sept. 1. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Whitmer, an attorney and former Senate minority leader from East Lansing, is officially in the race for governor. Schuette isn't, but many expect him to make his candidacy official as early as Tuesday, when he holds an annual barbecue in his hometown of Midland. Calley is another likely Republican candidate who has yet to announce.

In a head-to-head matchup, 37% of those surveyed said they would vote for Whitmer for governor, while 37% chose Schuette and 26% were undecided or refused to say.

John Sellek, a spokesman for Schuette, said the attorney general is focused "on delivering victories on issues like human trafficking and school bullying, not on polls."

However, "clearly people are recognizing his efforts," Sellek said.

Annie Ellison, a spokeswoman for Whitmer, said "it's no surprise why Republicans have significant concerns about Bill Schuette being their nominee."

"Gretchen's been gaining momentum since she got in this race eight months ago, while Schuette's been running for governor since the 1980s." 

In a Schuette-Fieger matchup, Schuette had support from 43% of those surveyed, compared to 33% for Fieger, while 24% were undecided or refused to say. Fieger has said he is considering a run for governor but has made no announcement.

Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA, said earlier polling by other firms — such as a May poll by Marketing Resource Group — have shown Fieger competitive with or narrowly outperforming Whitmer in a Democratic primary.

However, "he could have problems in a general election" and "would have to seriously recreate his image" in order to better his 1998 performance, when incumbent Republican Gov. John Engler defeated Fieger, 62% to 38%, Porn said.

He pointed to Fieger's 40% unfavorable rating in the poll, compared to 27% who viewed Fieger favorably.

Fieger told the Free Press on Wednesday that he is surprised the poll shows Schuette beating him in a head-to-head matchup, but he said that with the notable exception of the 2016 presidential election won by Republican Donald Trump, it is generally not advantageous for a candidate to be well-known.

If voters don't know a candidate, Fieger said, they can "gloss over" the issues and imagine the candidate as reflecting their wishes, he said.

"I've taken strong positions on things — people know who I am," Fieger said.

He said he would poll  better if he wasn't so honest. "People say they don't want to be lied to, but they really do — they want to be lied to."

Schuette's favorable-unfavorable ratings were 26%-18%. Calley was 16%-7%, and Whitmer was 12%-6%, according to the poll.

Asked about his relatively low name recognition, Calley, who has been lieutenant governor since 2011, said: "Unlike many politicians, I don't use my office as a campaign machine."

"I just get work done," Calley said. "People will appreciate that if I decide to run for governor."

Of those polled, 42% self-identified as Democrats and 38% as Republicans. Another 14% described themselves as Independent and 6% identified with another party, were undecided, or refused to say.

In the poll, 30% of the phone sample consisted of cell phones. Analysts have expressed concerns that a lack of cell phone participation in telephone polls skews the results because it affects the demographics pollsters reach.

Porn said he decided on which four names to poll based on earlier polling and public discourse about the perceived front-runners. But he said it's far too early to dismiss other candidates or potential candidates from emerging.

Among those not included in the poll were declared Democratic candidates Bill Cobbs, a retired Xerox executive from Farmington Hills; Abdul El-Sayed, the former director of the Detroit health department; Justin Giroux, a restaurant worker from Wayland; Ann Arbor businessman Shri Thanedar; and Kentiel White, a health care worker from Southgate. Also not polled were declared Republican candidates Dr. Jim Hines, a Saginaw physician; Sen. Patrick Colbeck, a Canton aerospace engineer; insurance agent Joseph DeRose of Williamston, private investigator Mark McFarrlin of Pinconning, and Evan Space, a Lansing student and small business owner. 

Of those polled, 48% said they think Michigan is headed in the right direction, while 37% said the state is on the wrong track. Respondents were not asked why they felt that way, but in response to another question, 64% said they believe the economy is improving. 

Snyder's job approval numbers, while still underwater at 41% positive and 57% negative, have improved from the low point he reached soon after the Flint water crisis emerged in October 2015.

Active and likely voters are those who voted in at least one of the last two elections, provided they were old enough to do so, and say they are likely to vote in 2018.

Contact Paul Egan: 517-372-8660 or pegan@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @paulegan4.